Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in Week 1, how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in Week 2, and Mike ThaGawd White at QB in Week 8.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
Last five winning lineups: Week 14, Week 13, Week 12, Week 11, Week 10
WINNING STRATEGY
Tyler Huntley — $5400, 35.9 points, 2.6% ownership
Jeff Wilson Jr. —- $5000, 22.9 pts, 12.8%
D’Onta Freeman —- $5200, 18.5 pts, 10.8%
Brandin Cooks —- $5800, 32.2 pts, 18.9%
Christian Kirk —- $5300, 24.4 pts, 16.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown —- $5200, 23.5 pts, 8.8%
Mark Andrews —- $6400, 38.6 pts, 11.3 pts
Davante Adams —- $8900, 16.4 pts, 34.9%
Texans DEF —- $2800, 10 pts, 3.7 pts
Total Draftkings Points —- 222.40
- Stack: Single, with a runback. Fourth one of the season.
- Ninth time this season all $50G of the salary was used. Stack/runback used the second-highest per-player amount this season at $6900
- WR in the FLEX, eighth time this season
- Stack used Vegas’ third-highest projected overall points game out of nine (GB at BAL, over/under 45)
- Tyler Huntley’s appearance marks the sixth time a QB has cost at most $6700
- More value at RB, at $5500 a back. And even more value was available, as Duke Johnson was the highest-scoring back at $4000. Madness. Duke is a big reason you would’ve only needed $43800 to score the perfect lineup this week
- Mark Andrews’ consecutive appearance marks the third time in a row that a TE has cost at least $5900. Otherwise, only weeks 1 and 6 saw a TE cost more than $4900
- This is the fourth week we’ve seen a WR-DEF stack
- Total ownership percentage: 120
THE SKILL
The best example of a contrarian play in 2021 might be this week. Over half of Milly lineups had James Robinson, who had a fine opportunity at only $5400 to come out with his teammates, gunz a’blazin, playing with a fire under their ass after Urban Meyer’s firing.
That narrative was understandable. But also understandable was the narrative that the Texans would come out and show that the Jags were still just a bunch of JAGs.
In three previous games, Brandin Cooks’ worst stat line while playing the Jaguars in a Texans uniform was three catches (on 9 targets) for 83 yards and a TD. If the Jags are still JAGs, what better way to show it than pairing Cooks with a cheap Houston DEF as they log a defensive TD for a solid ten-point showing.
If Amon-Ra St. Brown flourished against the Cardinals the same way he had been the previous two weeks, then odds are the Lions would do well, which they did. And that made Christian Kirk a great value play with DeAndre Hopkins out as Arizona saw a more pass-heavy game script.
With only nine games on the main slate, not everyone had to be world-beaters, and this week’s winning RBs, while not putting up elite performances, were candidates to see the volume it takes to make their floor very tempting considering their cost.
THE LUCK
How about building a lineup with Davante Adams, and then not having to rely on him to have a monster game? Not a bad privilege to have.
Instead, Tyler Huntley and Mark Andrews’ big connection in week 14 got even bigger versus the Packers, as they saw the 30-burgers that Davante was primed for. Instead, Davante’s performance looks pretty pedestrian against a Marlon Humphrey-less Ravens secondary, when just two weeks ago Diontae Johnson had the best fantasy game of his season while garnering Humphrey’s attention.
Players’ ebbs and flows in production can be heavily affected by opponents’ game planning, as teams adjust to try and cut off a player who’s on fire, for example. The Browns made sure to make someone on the Raiders other than Hunter Renfrow beat them after his hot streak.
Defenses didn’t find a way to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown or Mark Andrews, and you have to figure the Jags find a way to contain Cooks eventually (right?).
