The Anatomy of a $1M DFS Lineup: Dissecting the NFL Week 10 DraftKings Millionaire Maker Winning Lineup - Roto Street Journal
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The Anatomy of a $1M DFS Lineup: Dissecting the NFL Week 10 DraftKings Millionaire Maker Winning Lineup

Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first, if you haven’t already.

Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in Week 1, how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in Week 2, and Mike ThaGawd White at QB in week 8.

In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.

WINNING STRATEGY

 

Josh Allen — $7900, 24.94 pts

D’Ernest Johnson — $4700, 22.7

Mark Ingram — $4500, 20.8

Keenan Allen — $7000, 17.8

Stefon Diggs — $7500, 33.2

Ceedee Lamb — $7000, 28.6

Hunter Henry — $4100, 19.7

Rhamondre Stevenson — $4500, 30.4

Eagles DEF — $2700, 15

Total Points — 213.14

  • Stack: Single, no runback. The stacks/runbacks this season so far have gone:
    • Double, no run
    • Double, no run
    • Double, one run
    • Single, one run
    • Double, no run
    • Single, no run
    • Double, one run
    • Single, one run
    • Single, no run
    • Single, no run
  • Salary cap: Used $49,900. The fourth time it’s been less than all $50G, never less than $49,800, and the first time in five weeks all $50G hasn’t been used. Stack used $15,400 of the cap ($7700-per-player)
  • The second time in a row there’s been RB in the flex. The third time this season, and the fourth time it’s been a non-WR
  • Stack used from Vegas’ 5th-highest total points line out of eleven games (BUF at NYJ, over/under 48.5)
  • Josh Allen’s second appearance in the winning Milly lineup marks the 7th time a QB has cost at least $6700
  • Derrick Henry (week 2, $8300) is the only RB out of TWENTY-THREE this season to cost over $6700. Not only that, Nick Chubb (week 9, $6700) is the one out of the last eight to cost over $5400. Sure, injuries to guys like Henry, CMCBarkley, and Cook are going to make a difference, but this still seems a little wild.
  • The second-lowest Milly score so far, and the lowest for Linestar’s perfect lineup. The gap between the Milly and the perfect lineup is its lowest so far, with the 23-point difference being just 9.7-percent of the perfect lineup’s 236.14 points
  • Total ownership percentage: 121.8, the highest this season (thanks, D’Ernest) and still within the recommended 75-125 range. Only week 3 (72%) has been outside that range. After not seeing over 100% the first six out of seven weeks, it’s been over 100% the last three.

THE SKILL

In lieu of injuries and Covid-19 cases during the week, it was easy to imagine low-priced RBs making winning lineups. No better week than this one to serve as an example to always stay on top of this aspect of the game, as all three RBs were thrust into opportunities to smash, and delivered.

At this point in the season, it’s interesting to keep an eye on which players haven’t appeared in the winning lineup yet despite being elite talents (where were you, Mike Evans?). This week, Stefon Diggs broke that seal. He’s been a buy-low for what seems like years now in PFF’s Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report, and this week Diggs finally cashed in on that potential.

The Chargers’ offense seems to be reverting to its Philip Rivers days, which means back to mediocrity for Mike Williams, and back to being a PPR machine for Keenan Allen. Not sure how long that will continue, it’ll be worth monitoring as their price gaps will continue to get wider until Williams can see a bounce back, and hopefully, I (or you, of course) plays him when it happens.

With Jonnu Smith out, Hunter Henry had an opportunity to smash. A-a-a-a-a-a-a-and he did.

THE LUCK

The recent trend of low-priced RBs can’t continue forever (now watch it continue forever). It’s not like you could get lax on the position, as all three backs in this week’s lineup finished in the top-10 in scoring for the week.

In fact, the top-scoring RB was present in eight of this year’s ten winning lineups.

TRACKING POSITIONAL PLACING SO FAR

To continue on this topic, I’ve been tracking how high-scoring each slot has been this year. I thought, hey, what’s probably being analyzed elsewhere that I can look up on my own, but will spend time on doing it myself anyway? And here we are:

 

Position Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10
QB 16 2 1 7 2 13 2 11 2 2
RB1 1 1 4 1 4 1 1 1 1 1
RB2 5 18 6 2 12 2 2 4 2 5
WR1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
WR2 2 2 4 3 3 3 5 2 3 2
WR3 16 4 5 6 4 4 6 3 12 7
TE1 2 1 7 3 2 1 4 3 13 1
DEF 1 23 1 1 5 2 1 5 2 3
RB3 4 41 9
WR4 24 19 10 5 19 5
TE2 2

 

The “16” across from QB and below Week 1 means that the 16th-highest scoring QB for the week was in that week’s winning lineup.

Depending on what position was that week’s lineup’s FLEX, it’s denoted in this table as either RB3, WR4, or TE2.”RB1″ means that week’s lineup’s highest-scoring RB. “RB2” is that lineup’s 2nd-highest. Apply that to WR and TE.

Some observations I’ve seen:

  • Times that the week’s highest-scorer showed up in the winning lineup, by position:
    • QB: 1
    • RB: 8
    • WR: 7
    • TE: 3
    • DEF: 4
  • Only once did the highest-scoring RB and WR not show up (week 3). It was a week that the highest DEF did, and the only week the highest QB did.
  • You can whiff on QB occasionally, with weeks of 7th, 11th, 13th, and 16th making the winning lineup.
  • The one time TE was in the FLEX (week 6), it was the top-2 scoring TEs that made the lineup, suggesting no room to miss if you’re going TE in your FLEX.
  • Despite the unpredictable nature of DEF, we still seem doomed to rely on luckily falling into one. A top-3 DEF has been present seven times, and only one time outside the top-5 (week 2)
  • WR2 is never below the top-5
  • RB2 and WR3 can occasionally be forgiving
  • There’s some FLEXibility for RBs and WRs

Author

  • Driven by profit, has the lobes for business. Prioritizes anchors as part of a diversified portfolio. Seeks to be the first hue-mon to become the Grand Nagus. On Twitter @ChaseM_G

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