Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in Week 1, how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in Week 2, and Mike ThaGawd White at QB in week 8.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
WINNING STRATEGY
Matthew Stafford — $7100, 26.98 points, 3.5% ownership
Joe Mixon — $7500, 35.3 pts, 11.8%
Leonard Fournette — $6800, 47.1 pts, 3.6%
Odell Beckham Jr. — $5000, 19.1 pts, 8.5%
Jaylen Waddle — $5900, 31.7 pts, 6.4%
Robby Anderson —- $4700, 2.5 pts, 3.4%
Rob Gronkowski — $4400, 22.3 pts, 36.4%
Darrel Henderson Jr. — $5800, 17.3 pts, 14.2%
Dolphins DEF — $2800, 23 pts, 3.8%
Total Draftkings Points — 225.28
- Stack: Double, no run back. First double stack in five weeks
- Used all $50G of the salary cap, per the usual. Stack cost $17900 (35.8% of the cap, $5967-per-player)
- RB in the FLEX for the fourth week in a row. Weeks 1-8 saw a non-WR in the flex only twice
- Stack used Vegas’ fourth-highest total points line game out of 10
- Stafford makes eight out of the twelve winning lineup QBs cost at least $6700
- After Derrick Henry was the RB to cost over $6700 the first ten weeks, four of the six winning lineup RBs these two weeks have been over $6700. It couldn’t have lasted forever, right?
- Only the second time this season a WR hasn’t been involved in the stack/runback. Interestingly enough, the other time was week 2, a Brady-Lenny-Gronk stack
- After an absurdly low 28% total ownership last week, a return to normal in week 12, at 91.6%
THE SKILL
Hopefully, you listened to Jimbo like I did(n’t) and rolled with Mixon versus a Steelers run D that’s been falling apart recently.
Gronk’s ownership percentage shouldn’t be a surprise as he looked poised to regain his early-season momentum after going into the Colts game healthier than he’s been since week 3.
Even before Christian McCaffrey‘s injury, the Dolphins were in a good spot to give Cam Newton and the Panthers offense trouble.
And kudos to this week’s winner for succeeding with a Cooper Kupp-less Rams stack. OBJ had a bye week to further familiarize himself with the offense and provide value at his week 12 price.
THE LUCK
Not only can you count losing CMC as part of the Dolphins’ defensive production, but how about putting in Robby Anderson as well. While there isn’t necessarily going to end up being a negative correlation between a WR and the opposing DEF, playing both is still too risky for my blood.
The argument for playing them is an interesting one. With Cam in town, Anderson’s production has seen an uptick yet has still been pedestrian. A matchup versus the blitz-heavy Dolphins might have afforded him more of the short-yardage looks he has been seeing already without the Panthers scoring points. But, perhaps it’s better off that Robby didn’t help the Panthers move the ball downfield to negate the Dolphins defense’s big showing.
RECOGNIZING HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN CHANGE
The Colts seemed to take Jonathan Taylor‘s unlikely explosion versus the Bills and take it with them, except they handed that explosion to Fournette, allowing more rushing TDs than they have the rest of the year combined.
A subset of the luck factor, in-season shifts in performance levels of players, position groups, etc, can be frustratingly common in the NFL.
Consider how Rotowire said the Colts’ secondary is “known to be tough on wideouts” when referring to Mike Evans‘ unproductive game against them. The Colts have only allowed 216 yards combined to receivers the last three weeks, averaging the 10th-least per game for the season.
However, before those last three weeks, the Colts allowed the seventh-most yards per game. That doesn’t say “known to be tough”.
And after looking like they couldn’t stop anybody the first half of the year, Washington’s secondary has been able to hold their own against the likes of the Buccaneers and Seahawks of late.
As Don Henley said, “Everything I thought I figured out, I have to learn again.” Because after all, recognizing this game’s unpredictability, is at the heart of the matter. Or something. Maybe ignore this paragraph…
