It’s the most wonderful tiiiime… of the year!
With fantasy wins rolling and sore losers trolling as playoffs are near!
The approach of Christmas means many things for fantasy players and analysts alike. Colder weather in most parts of the Continental U.S. (go home mother nature, you’re drunk) and injuries are piling up. Lineups are barren while valuable running back depth is as scarce as toilet paper in March of 2020.
When people are having to stomach starting Tevin Coleman and Boston Scott at the RB position while players like Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones can be considered benchable, you know fantasy football is broken.
Being wolves while the rest of the fantasy industry panders to the groupthink of the almighty bluebird app means winning pivotal fantasy matchups. Winning these matchups pave the way for fantasy championships.
So, who should start and who should sit? Take my hand and I will make my case for Duck’s dudes and Duck’s duds.
DUCK’S DUDES
QUARTERBACK START ‘EM
Carson Wentz vs Houston Texans
Wentz is attempting to ride the Colts’ lead horse, Jonathan Taylor, to the playoffs while trying not to be a detriment to the team’s success. This has led to him being a frustrating fantasy option for most of the season.
Don’t look now though, but Wentz has quietly been a solid fantasy quarterback, scoring 20+ FPTS in four of his last six games. Coincidentally, Wentz has been a QB1 in each of those games. Wentz has thrown for 3,030 air yards this season but has only converted 1,455 of those air yards.
Additionally, Houston BLEEDS points to the RB position, allowing 135.6 rush yards per game to RBs (2nd most). Why would I endorse Wentz in a game where Taylor might break fantasy with his production?
Wentz excels against Cover 1 and Cover 2 defenses. Houston uses Cover 1 at the sixth-highest rate in the league and Cover 2 at the second-highest rate. Wentz has averaged 0.39 fantasy points per drop back vs Cover 2 the last three years, according to Wes Huber of Fantasy Points. Houston allows the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season.
In other words, whether it’s through the air to Taylor or Michael Pittman or Jack Doyle, Wentz is in a position to put up a ton of yards and even a couple of scores this week.
Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins
RUNNING BACK START ‘EM
Elijah Mitchell vs Seattle Seahawks
It’s week 13 and there are still some Trey Sermon stans holding out hope that he will take over the backfield at some point. Meanwhile, despite being banged up himself this season, Mitchell has balled out!
The week 1 rookie dynamo overshadowed by Raheem Mostert and the frantic hype train surrounding Sermon has definitively proven he is the best back on the team.
Since week 7, after battling different ticky-tack injuries, Mitchell has scored at least 12.9 points in four of his five games. Mitchell has been getting FED lately, receiving 27 carries in back-to-back games, 11 targets in his last three games, and a 70+% opportunity share.
Oh… and he’s playing Seattle (2nd worst team defending the RB position). Head coach Kyle Shanahan has also said that Mitchell is probably the healthiest he’s been all season.
Not to toot my own horn but I was touting Mitchell as the most talented RB on the roster after the NFL Draft.
If you need any more of a reason to be excited about Mitchell vs Seattle, four RBs in their last four games have gone for over 20 PPR points against the Seahawks (AJ Dillon, James Conner, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic).
Honorable Mention: Boston Scott, Myles Gaskin
WIDE RECEIVER START ‘EM
Van Jefferson vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Mr. Huber is crushing it over at Fantasy Points. One of my favorite efficiency/predictive metrics used to find favorable matchups is looking at coverage snap efficiency. Diving deep into the numbers at a more micro level, coverage snap efficiency looks at how exploitable/stingy opposing defensive backs have been.
Jaguars cornerback Shaq Griffin’s game status is still up in the air as he battles to return from a concussion. If he misses the game, then coverage duties on Jefferson would likely fall to Tyson Campbell. Campbell has been as spongy as fruitcake when it comes to giving up fantasy points to the receiving position.
Campbell has yielded 1.72 yards per coverage snap (YPCS) and 0.33 FP/CS.
On the season, Jefferson has commanded a 24.45% market share of the team’s air yards and averages a beautiful 13.69 yards per target. Jefferson is coming off of a nine-target day and has seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games. Stafford clearly routinely looks Jefferson’s way and was a toe drag away from a monstrous four-catch for 133 yards and two TD day last week.
Jefferson is a high ceiling flex play with a steady floor.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk
DUCK’S DUDS
QUARTERBACK SIT ‘EM
Joe Burrow vs Los Angeles Chargers
Will the real Burrow please stand up?
Last season, Burrow chucked the ball around the yard at a historic clip. His efficiency metrics were abysmal, including a disappointing 3.2% TD rate last season. Looking at the numbers as a whole this year and the difference is night and day. Burrow is throwing touchdowns at a sweltering 6.5% rate.
Through one more game played, he has 65 fewer pass attempts. His interception rate has also nearly tripled, going up from 1.2% last year to 3.5% this year.
Through eight weeks, Burrow threw for 20 TDs and was on pace for 42.5 on the season. Over his next three games, Burrow has only thrown two touchdowns with three interceptions and hasn’t been pressing the ball downfield.
Which Burrow is going to show up? Does it really matter?
Ja’Marr Chase has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks and the Chargers are stingy against both QBs and WRs (6th and 2nd respectively). Tough matchup + poor playing Burrow = ride the pine!
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan
RUNNING BACK SIT ‘EM
Rhamondre Stevenson vs Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has been BAD on defense lately. While there’s no shame in giving up a country mile and four touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor (just kidding, that’s always a bad thing) Stevenson’s range of outcomes isn’t anywhere near that performance. Stevenson has flashed serious talent and has been pushing Damien Harris for some playing time lately.
To Harris’ credit, he has been battling back from a Week 10 concussion and the Patriots have been bringing him along slowly. Many are still clinging to the narrative of Stevenson’s week 10 shellacking of Cleveland where he put up 27 PPR points.
Since then, Stevenson had a combined 13.1 PPR points against the Titans and Falcons. Factor in the fact that Harris is healthy and still the lead back in the offense and that makes Stevenson a TD or bust play this week and most weeks.
Honorable Mention: David Johnson, Tevin Coleman
WIDE RECEIVER SIT ‘EM
Elijah Moore vs Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Wilson’s return from injury was about as much of a dumpster fire as every other week he has been under center. Moore had been hotter than a ghost pepper prior to Wilson’s return.
Once Wilson came back it just seemed like the offense was in complete disarray. While Wilson did start to move the ball a little it didn’t matter for Moore. Moore’s four-game streak of 12+ PPR points came crashing down with four catches for 46 yards.
Darius Slay has been an insane lockdown corner the second half of the season and is quickly establishing his own personal no-fly-zone in the secondary. With no Corey Davis to draw off coverage, as he is likely to miss this week with a groin injury, Moore is in line for a long day on the field.
Honorable Mention: Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams
TIGHT END STREAMERS
Logan Thomas vs Las Vegas Raiders
Foster Moreau vs Washington Football Team
Noah Fant vs Kansas City Chiefs
