Year in and year out, Mike Williams has become one of the toughest wide receivers to get a pulse on in fantasy football. Through nine weeks, it’s been a tale of two seasons for Williams. He started the season on an absolute tear.
Between Weeks 1 through 5, he had four 20-plus point games and two games with over 30 PPR points. Over those five games, he averaged 23.6 PPR per game and was on a full-season pace of 173 targets and 19 touchdowns. While that was clearly unsustainable, he has come completely crashing down to earth. The crash started with a dismal Week 6 when he hurt his knee against Baltimore and only logged 36 percent of snaps. Since then, he is averaging a whopping 4.3 PPR per game and would be on a full-season pace of only 88 targets. Big Yikes!
The numbers look terrible for Williams, but we need some context:
Week 6: at Baltimore – Hurt knee (36 percent of Snaps)
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: vs. New England – Bill Belichick takes away the primary option
Week 9: at Philadelphia – Darius Slay shadow coverage
It’s clear that he hasn’t looked as good since he injured his knee. But now it’s time to ask yourself, is Mike Williams fools gold? The poor numbers over the last three games are largely a result of the knee injury that he has been nursing.
The truth about Williams is that he’s not going to be the receiver we saw pre-knee injury but he also is not going to continue the form he is in since injuring his knee in Week 6. After three straight games with less than 8 PPR points, the fantasy manager in your league who has Williams is probably sick and tired of getting burned by him (I know I am). But he’s one of my favorite players to buy low for two reasons:
- He’s still the WR 1B for Justin Herbert, this is an offense I just want pieces in
- I’m not going to lower the perception of his trade value because of three bad games while hurt. Imagine if Williams just decided he couldn’t play in the last three games and he needed a few weeks off to get completely healthy. Way better for our fantasy teams? Absolutely. But would this be good for his team? Probably not.
Williams is still on a full-season pace of over 1200 yards and 13 touchdowns on 140 targets. His season reminds me a lot of Tyler Lockett’s season last year. Even their situations are similar. Lockett is the WR 1B to an elite stud WR in D.K. Metcalf. Having another great receiver can cause some “your turn, my turn” and lead to a lack of consistency. Like Lockett, Mike Williams has an elite WR, Keenan Allen, on his team too. Also like Lockett, Williams has the upside to score over 30 points in any game and win you your matchup that week.
Look for Williams to bounce back in a nice matchup against the Vikings in Week 10. Check out Jackson Barrett’s trade chart to help you assemble an offer.
