DraftKings NFL Week 1 Milly Maker Strategy: Stacks, Value Plays, Bargains

The NFL is back baby!

Now onto my favorite form of fantasy football, which is daily fantasy football. Tailback Tino and I are back for another year and this year we’re gonna change it up a little. In addition to giving you our favorite stacks and values of the week, we’re going to start adding in our favorite game stacks, a player we’re fading, and our long shot play of the week. 

I also will analyze the winning roster at the end of each week to see if there’s any information that we can take from them. 

Before we dive into Week 1, I want to share some trends and just key takeaways from last season’s winning Millionaire Maker lineups: 

1. STACKING IS EVERYTHING: If you’re not stacking you’re not going to be in the money, it’s that simple. Think about it this way, it’s difficult to hit on a parlay when the legs of your parlay aren’t correlated. This certainly creates for boom or bust weeks, but ultimately we’re looking for those boom weeks to win a million bucks.
2. Run it back: If you’re unfamiliar with the term, bringing it back is when you stack two or more players from team A with one or more players from their opponent. Data shows that the position you usually want to bring it back with is a WR due to the fact that it’s a highly volatile position with a very high ceiling.
3. Mix in cheap defenses: Avoid picking the chalky DSTs and spending too much on position. Because of the way the position is scored, the difference in ceilings between the most and least expensive defenses are similar. DST is a great spot to gain leverage against the field.
4. The days of the cheap QB are over: With the evolution of the NFL, the mobile QB has become a cheat code. The Konami Code ceiling is light-years higher than that of a traditional pocket passer. Since we’re looking for a ceiling in the Milly Maker contest, paying up for a running or at least mobile QB is ideal. 
5. Total Ownership: Typically you want your entire roster between 75 and 125% ownership. It’s okay to eat the chalk, but identifying good chalk versus bad chalk is key to success in DFS. You can have a 40% owned player but mix in some low-owned, sub 5% players.

For more information on Milly Maker trends, check out Adam Levitan’s video on the subject.

Without further ado, let’s jump into Week 1:

DOUBLE STACK OF THE WEEK

KB – Justin Herbert (4.4%), Austin Ekeler (7%), Keenan Allen (7.7%)

If you’re looking for a contrarian play that has the potential to explode in week 1, look no further than this LA Chargers offense. They’re taking on one of the league’s best defenses in the Washington Football Team which means that most of the field will probably be fading these guys. A season ago, the Football Team allowed the fifth-fewest DK points to the QB and third-fewest points to the RB and WR. 

Justin Herbert is coming off of a historic rookie season where he threw for over 4,300 yards and 31 touchdowns. He was on a 16 game pace to lead the NFL in passing attempts with 635 attempts (40 attempts per game). Herbert showed immense upside last season with seven games of over 25 points and six games with over three touchdown passes last season. He also showed some rushing prowess and could even sneak in a touchdown. 

With Herbert, I want to stack his two best receiving options in Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. These two combined for a substantial 44.6% target share last season. In the 10 games that the trio played together in 2020, Ekeler and Allen averaged a combined 17 targets per game. 

Two cheaper receivers that I’ll throw in this mix are Mike Williams ($5,500 – 3.1%) and Josh Palmer ($3,000). Williams’ large frame and ability to high point the ball makes him a threat to score any given week. There’s been a lot of talk this preseason about Williams taking over the “Michael Thomas” role in Joe Lombardi’s offense. Palmer has also gained a lot of attention this preseason and the rookie has secured the WR3 role in this offense.

You can get Herbert, Ekeler, and Allen for a combined $20,600 at only 19.1% projected ownership. Most of the field will not play this stack so if you’re looking for leverage, this double stack is a great option against the field. 

Tino – Aaron Rodgers (6.4%), Davante Adams (17.2%), Robert Tonyan (3.5%)

If I have learned one thing about Aaron Rodgers, it’s that he is a spiteful, pride-driven bastard. 

Game 1 of his “Last Dance” is going to be like Kobe’s 60-point final game. Rodgers has made it clear who makes the decisions in Green Bay, and it definitely is not his coaching staff. If you think any coaching staff is getting him to hand the ball off inside the 10, you just have another thing coming. 

Some might be scared off of Davante Adams due to his matchup against Saints elite CB Marshon Lattimore, but Adams has been notorious for being matchup proof. He posted an almost unbelievable eight-game stretch last season of at least six receptions and a touchdown. He finished the season with 18 touchdowns in 14 games.  

Everyone knows that touchdown regression is likely coming for Robert Tonyan, but he is undoubtedly going to remain a top red-zone option in the passing game for Rodgers.  Tonyan and Rodgers connected for a 5-50-1 line against New Orleans last season. 

Tonyan and Adams accounted for 29 of Green Bay’s 48 passing touchdowns last season, just over 60% of the team’s total receiving touchdowns.  Expect Adams and Tonyan to be on the receiving end of two Rodgers’ touchdown passes.

You can build your lineup off this stack for $19,300 At a reasonable 27.1% projected ownership. Adams might be chalk, but if he goes off, you will be happy you took your shot on this stack.

GAME STACK OF THE WEEK

KB – Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons; O/U: 48 points

This game is Vegas’ fourth-highest point total of the week, and I’m betting on the over. If we’re going by last season’s numbers, both of these defenses are inadequate when it comes to stopping the QB and receiving options.

The Falcons allowed the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks and receivers and the third-most points to opposing tight ends. On the other hand, the Eagles allowed the eighth-most points to opposing wideouts and the third-most points to tight ends.   

Jalen Hurts could carve up the Falcons’ defense for 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Matt Ryan is old reliable, but without any rushing ability and only $400 less than Hurts, I’m passing on him. There’s a ton of stacking options in this game with plenty of value to be found as well. 

Eagles Options: 

1. Devonta Smith ($4,500) – Smith couldn’t have asked for a better coming-out party than a Week 1 matchup against the Falcons. The rookie planted his flag as the team’s WR1 and should see over 7 targets out of the gate.
2. Jalen Reagor ($3,700) – The same goes for Reagor, who will benefit from having Smith at the other receiver spot. Plus, there’s been some Reagor hype coming out of Philadelphia thanks to some highlight-reel catches he made in camp. He’s the team’s WR2 and underpriced, compared to similarly-priced Jakeem Grant and Cam Sims. 
3. Quez Watkins ($3,000) – Watkins worked a lot with the first team in practice and is projected to be the team’s slot receiver. But as the slot receiver, his big-play potential isn’t high enough to justify taking him in a GPP.
4. Dallas Goedert ($4,800) – Goedert is a fade for me this week because he is priced as the fourth-highest TE of the slate. Generally, I like to find some more savings at the position. 

Falcons Options: 

1. Calvin Ridley ($7,900) – Ridley is a smash play this week. He is projected to be one of the chalkier WRs on the week, but he’s a stud. 
2. Russell Gage ($5,300) – Gage is primed to take over the role that Ridley had on this offense now that Ridley is taking over for Julio Jones.  From Week 13 on, Gage was on pace for 131 targets, over 1,000 yards receiving, and 10 touchdowns. 
3. Kyle Pitts ($4,400) –  We all know the hype around Pitts. He’s been moved all over the field this preseason so you could be getting a WR in your TE position. Pitts is an athletic freak with immense potential. This could be the lowest he’s priced at all season and with a favorable matchup, he’s well worth the risk.

Tino – Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints; O/U: 50 points

My whole lineup revolves around Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams lighting the world on fire this week. While it is clear from my stack of the week what I expect from Green Bay, let me run you through why I like running it back on the New Orleans side of the ball and why I expect these two teams to smash the over.

Jameis Winston starting over Taysom Hill allows for the possibility of a full-on shootout in the Big Easy. People forget that Jameis was the QB3 in fantasy in 2019, before losing his job to arguably the greatest competitor on the planet in Tom Brady. What Jameis lacks in accuracy and decision-making, he makes up for in crab legs and complete disregard for protecting the football. Apparently, this facet of his game has changed, but I don’t believe that will be the case if the Packers jump out to a commanding early lead.  How can the Saints keep the training wheels on Jameis if they fall behind by double digits?  

Expect Rodgers and Adams to come out on fire, forcing the Saints to let the old Jameis take the reins. If this happens, expect Jameis to look Marquez Callaway’s ($3,400) way often, and to utilize Alvin Kamara ($8,600) frequently in the check-down game. 

You have to be bold and fully commit to a certain game narrative to have a shot to win the Million, and this is the one I am betting on in Week 1.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

KB – Jalen Hurts ($6,400 – 1.9%) – Regardless of what you think about Hurts’ future in Philadelphia, he will be the guy in Week 1. In two of the four games that Hurts started last season, he threw for over 300 yards and in the other two games, he eclipsed 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Although a small sample size, Hurts has shown the ability to explode using both his arms and his legs. He fits the profile of the exact type of QB you want in fantasy football and I can’t really wrap my head around his 2% ownership considering his price of only $6,400. 

JT – Keenan Allen ($6,900 – 7.7%) – I don’t like Kendall’s stack of the week this week…. I love it. It’s tough to call a $6,900 wide receiver a “value,” but I truly think Allen is a value this week given the matchup.  Allen is the ultimate safety valve for any quarterback, and I expect Justin Herbert to need him against the elite pass rush of the WFT. I expect Allen to be hyper-targeted in order to move the chains, and think he should be more in the $8,000 range.  He is a great player to lock into your lineup and rely on a productive PPR performance.

FADE OF THE WEEK (10%+ OWNERSHIP)

KB – Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,700 – 13.7%) – It comes down to ownership projections with Reagor. When I first looked at this slate, I liked throwing him in as a cheap stacking option with Hurts or a cheap run-it-back option. But Reagor is projected as the fifth most owned WR at 14%. I’d rather spend up a little for Devonta Smith who is still cheap at $4,500 but you get a ton of leverage against the field with only 0.6% projected ownership. 

Tino – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,100 – 17.6%) – I cannot fathom why anyone would take Patrick Mahomes this week. Is he currently the best QB on the planet? Yes. Does it make any sense whatsoever to pay a premium to draft him against a run-heavy Browns team with an above-average defense? No. The Browns are going to want to turn this into a trench battle and chew clock, which eats away at the Chief’s offense’s upside. I don’t see the crazy ceiling with Mahomes in this matchup that would demand such a high price. Spend your valuable salary elsewhere.

SUB-4K LONGSHOT OF THE WEEK

KB – Jordan Akins, TE, Houston Texans ($3,000 – 2.9%) – This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair even with Tyrod Taylor as the Texans starting QB. The Jaguars’ defense is one of the worst in football and they allowed the 9th most points to tight ends last season. Taylor targeted Hunter Henry eight times in Week 1 last season. Small sample size, I know, but I went back to 2015-2017 when Taylor was the starter in Buffalo. Charles Clay was their TE over this three-year span and he received an average of 6 targets per game in 37 games.

Aside from Brandin Cooks, there’s no one in Houston who demands targets. If you’re looking for some savings at TE, Jordan Akins should see 5+ targets and is a dart throw to find the endzone. 

Tino – Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3,000 – 3%) – One of my bang the table players for 2021 is Terrace Marshall Jr.  Scott Barrett wrote an amazing article on 96 Stats to know going into 2021, and one of my favorites illustrated Sam Darnold’s overwhelming tendency to hyper-target his slot receiver. Darnold’s favorite target has been his slot receiver dating all the way back to his 2017 season at USC, and Marshall ran 67% of his routes from the slot in the preseason.  

I view this duo as much more similar to Teddy Bridgewater and Jerry Jeudy than some people may think, and I expect Marshall to be a reliable fantasy option from day one in Matt Rhule’s offense. Take the basement minimum price on a guy whose price should be almost double what it is.

MILLY MAKER LINEUP OF THE WEEK 

Like last year, Tino and I will be competing head-to-head each week and see who comes out on top by the season’s end!