Carson Wentz’s injury history is no secret, but I think we were all still a little surprised to see him go down this early in the offseason. And then even more surprised when All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson went down with the exact same foot injury one day after learning of Wentz’s injury specifics. Both injuries involve the foot’s fifth metatarsal.
Now, with both players having a vague five-to-12 week recovery time, the fantasy football impact of the rest of the Colts offense is somewhat of a mystery.
CONFLICTING REPORTS
Two orthopedic surgeons, Drs. Erica Fisk and A. Holly Johnson, gave their takes to IndyStar on Wentz and Nelson’s recovery timetable. Though neither are performing the surgeries, their valuable input puts these players on the latter side of the recovery window. Included is a sample size of past cases:
“A small pool of six athletes who had a piece of the fifth metatarsal removed were studied and data was published in 2011 by Dr. John Anderson. Those athletes’ average return to play was 11.5 weeks, said Johnson.”
Granted, this was 2011. Sports medicine has improved over time, with still the best example to date likely being Adrian Peterson. In 2011, Pederson tore his ACL and MCL in week 16. While that injury was beginning not to be the career-killer it used to be, Peterson returned well before the usual recovery time to play the entire 2012 season, rushing for a mammoth 2,097 yards.
However, Jay Glazer reported that the Colts think Wentz could return “sooner rather than later”, adding that they’ll know more in about two weeks.
What's the latest on the Dak and Wentz injuries, and how likely is it that Deshaun Watson stays with the Texans all season?@JayGlazer gives us updates on those stories and more: pic.twitter.com/saXdNGscvj
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) August 5, 2021
SIGNS FOR OPTIMISM
Concerns over Wentz’s injury-prone ways are real. His foot injury is believed to be one that likely occurred in high school but went undiagnosed. For it to pop up during a routine, non-contact play during practice, it’s natural to wonder if it will just pop up again. But at least in this case, Dr. Erica Fisk expects that “once their injuries are healed, there should be no greater risk than anyone else for a recurrence.”
And after the surgery went through with no complications, Colts’ QB coach Scott Milanovich’s remarks temper concerns not only about how Wentz could be behind the curve now in getting used to his new team, but also overcoming his diminished mechanics from last season:
“He looks fantastic to me,” Milanovich said. “He’s worked so hard in the offseason on his feet and his drops, getting used to our guys. He looked midseason form to me. Obviously, we’ll see what the rehab is going to be, but he’s tough and a hard worker, he’ll be back as fast and as fresh as anybody can be.”
FANTASY IMPACT ON COLTS WEAPONS
As of this writing, it’s been about two weeks that the Colts had an opportunity to bring in a quarterback in the wake of Carson’s injury, and they aren’t looking to trade for any veteran quarterbacks right now. Only Nick Foles and Philip Rivers would’ve been options that joined a system they were already familiar with, as anyone else would only have just over a month to start from scratch.
Only Brett Hundley was brought in as competition for Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. None of these options inspire confidence. Because of this, the fantasy outlook for the other Colts’ skill-position players get your prototypical backup quarterback treatment. Shorter, less effective drives drop everyone’s value at least somewhat, particularly TD upside. Hundley and Ehlinger profile as dual-threats, but their rushing ability isn’t enough to make them priority streaming options in start/sit leagues. All receiving options are in danger of not being startable.
Eason, the currently presumed leading candidate to take over in Wentz’ absence, hasn’t yet thrown a pass in an NFL game. He’s more of a pocket passer who profiles as “naturally accurate”, though he was bad at handling pressure in college, and sometimes missed throws that were “lay-ups” (sounds like another QB Indy traded for a few months ago).
The easy misses are hard to ignore with Eason. This is what I mean when I say naturally accurate. A few misses here and there happen but these are lay-ups that are flat out missed opportunities. Way too prevalent in his film pic.twitter.com/MsvHcHsFPl
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) January 2, 2021
Without Quenton Nelson, the Colts’ offensive line is without their best player. He ranked as the 3rd best guard by Pro Football Focus last season, on a unit that PFF projected to be 2nd-best in the league heading into 2021.
Colts GM Chris Ballard happened to sign some depth in the offseason, acquiring guard Chris Reed. Reed can keep the ship rolling, even if defenses will scheme the likes of Poona Ford, Aaron Donald, Jeffrey Simmons, Calais Campbell, and Nick Bosa to attack the backup.
Reed might not have to face Bosa, or Campbell, as they fall near the end of Wentz and Nelson’s 12-week timetable…
Week 1 – vs Seahawks
Week 2 – vs Rams
Week 3 – at Titans
Week 4 – at Dolphins
Week 5 – at Ravens
Week 6 – vs Texans
Week 7 – at 49ers
…but regardless of how well Reed fills in, the Colts’ early schedule is riddled with teams who can put up points. The prototypical backup quarterback treatment for fantasy is not kind to Jonathan Taylor here.
One, we should expect more pass-heavy game scripts. Two, we should expect those scripts not to be as successful as with the starter at the helm. Three, we should expect more attention and more stacked boxes to hold up the run game. And as a bonus number four, we should expect that the run blocking will take a hit while your best linemen is out.
VALUE OPPORTUNITIES
Even with reports like these…
Good vibes all around @Colts.
Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger are competing for the backup role.
Yes, the backup role.
Carson Wentz trending to open the season as the starter with All-Pro G Quenton Nelson on same path after foot surgeries.
The Colts open season vs. Seahawks.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) August 11, 2021
…we should be keeping our eyes out in general for players that our league-mates let fall to us in drafts.
The fact that Wentz got injured already could scare your league-mates away from drafting Colts. Early concerns had The Wolf at one point fading Jonathan Taylor to his RB13, and Indy’s receivers middling in the WR 5/6 range.
Maybe Wentz and Nelson can return for Week 1, or maybe just miss a week or two. Regardless, don’t be afraid to bet on upside. It’s a rea-a-al long shot that by the time Wentz returns, the Colts will not only be out of the playoff hunt, but also so uninterested in playing to win that they get weird with their starters, gameplan, or god forbid are looking to tank.
If your league-mates want to treat JT as the RB13, have no shame in drafting an absolute steal in the second round. And Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman, and possibly TY Hilton are shameless late-round dart throws who could well outperform their draft price, or FAAB price, if you’re league-mates devalue them enough.
That JT dip was fun while it lasted 💦 pic.twitter.com/gx3kmLfDap
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) August 11, 2021
And what about Wentz, who the Expert Consensus Rankings currently consider a mid-QB3? Want to spend your last round pick on a QB in the off-chance that by the fantasy playoffs he regains the MVP form he saw while under Frank Reich in Philly? Go ahead, I won’t shame you.
Keep up with The Wolf’s 2021 Rankings And Big Board to help gauge confidence in Indy’s offense, as well as to find good value in what the draft board gives you.
