2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 5 - Roto Street Journal
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2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 5

The Workload Report is broken up into three distinct sections: opportunity, production, and results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and find out where these coveted fantasy points are coming from every week for every team. I envision that these categories will stay the same throughout the season, but some of the specific stats may change as I continue to fine-tune this.

Make sure you read the Week 1 Workload Report for an introduction to some of the categories included.

This week I decided to shorten up the PDF version of the report, as I only sorted per position in some of the main categories. Don’t worry, for all of you data nerds I am still including an excel version of this so that you can dig into everything yourself.

In addition to the Weekly Rankings (scroll down to the bottom of the article), I have included a lot more analysis and screenshots from the report on different categories of players that stuck out to me. Hopefully, this will help you find actionable ways to read the report.

Any feedback you have, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and we can talk shop!

The Workload Report: Week 5

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

Week 5 Fantasy All-Stars

Clearing the 40 point mark is quite the feat, and that’s exactly what Chase Claypool did with his 4-TD performance. He scored on almost half of his receptions (7) and really picked up the slack for Pittsburgh when Diontae Johnson went down. Looks like the Steelers have another clear fantasy winner at wide receiver.

One week after putting up a dud in DFS, Brandin Cooks came back strong with an 8-161-1 performance against the tattered Jaguars defense. Prior to week 5, he had been averaging only 9% of the Texans PPR points, so the 30 point outburst was a welcome sight for fantasy owners.

We have to talk about the consistency of Adam Thielen. The guy is almost single-handedly shouldering the load for the Minnesota Vikings receiving corps, and he keeps delivering every week. He got into the end zone twice in Week 5 and topped what was already an impressive 25% PPR share through 4 weeks.

Saved by the Endzone

The Tennessee Titans showed up and showed out in the first Tuesday Night Football matchup of 2020, but two of their main offensive weapons would have looked a lot less appetizing without hitting the endzone two times each. Jonnu Smith only had 40 yards receiving and Derrick Henry only rushed for 57 yards on the ground, but both finished right around 20 PPR points. The Titans exploded offensively, and we expected to see scores from their studs when the production was condensed due to COVID inactives, so I’m not looking at this in a negative sense at all.

A Touchdown away from Breaking the Slate

Emmanuel Sanders was a monster on Monday night for the Saints who had to play catchup mode for most of the second half (before eventually catching up and winning the game). He saw 14 targets and turned that into 122 yards and 24.2 PPR points.

In the other primetime weeknight game, Stefon Diggs did everything he could to help the Bills try and keep pace with the Titans. Diggs caught 10 passes on 16 targets and cleared 100 yards for the third time this season. Diggs only has 2 TDs through 5 weeks, so I would expect to see that number bump up over the next couple of weeks.

Biggest Week 5 Breakouts

After Keenan Allen went down with a back injury, Mike Williams went absolutely bonkers for the Chargers. Including the catch down the sideline against double-coverage that should have led to the game-winning field goal, Williams had 109 yards and two touchdowns. If Allen is set to miss any time, Williams seems like a trustworthy WR2.

Jamison Crowder is the only reliable offensive option left on the New York Jets. After missing a couple of weeks due to injury, Crowder has now put up back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. He’s not in a great situation in New York and is never a trendy pick by fantasy managers so it still may be feasible to get some reasonable trades completed for the Jets’ consistent pass catcher.

Biggest Week 5 Busts

By now, you have all seen the gruesome ankle injury suffered by Dak Prescott and while all Cowboys fans are still in the grieving period, it seems like the one who is taking it hardest is Amari Cooper. Coop has seen his usage rate decreasing almost every week leading up to this game and with a mix of Dak and Dalton, he put up a meager 4.1 DKPts. Will be interesting to see how the field plays him in the Monday night slate this week.

Zach Ertz is one of the most puzzling stories throughout the first five weeks. With Dallas Goedert out and the Eagles wide receiver room ravished by injuries, all signs pointed to their stud TE having all the opportunity in the world. Over the last two weeks, he has caught 5 passes for a whopping 15 yards. Not what you want to see from a guy getting up there in age.

Dominating the Dominator Rating

There are not many more players in the NFL more fitting to lead the Dominator Rating category than DK Metcalf. He has produced over 90 yards in every game this season and was Wilson’s most trustworthy connection in their 4th quarter comeback against the Vikings on Sunday night. Usually, the dominator rating varies from week-to-week based on the high TD variance, but Metcalf is trending above 30% which is extremely elite for a wide receiver. Wheels up on the Seahawks budding superstar.

Air Yards = Future Production

So far this season, we have talked in depth about Air Yards, so I think that most people now have a good grasp on how to utilize this stat. Last week I introduced a new stat to the worksheet for receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). Tyreek Hill had a RACR above 0.8 in the first 4 weeks, but only turned 184 air yards (3rd highest) into 78 receiving yards on Sunday against the Raiders. The air yard share is elite and we know what he is capable of in this explosive Chiefs offense. Expect to see some more production this week with Sammy Watkins out.

John Hightower had one of the more bizarre lines we have seen so far this season, converting 210 air yards into only 18 receiving yards. That kind of conversion rate is almost unheard of but could propose an interesting WR pivot in Week 6 after the Travis Fulgham blowup in Week 5. Still don’t trust a lot of what the Eagles have going through the air.

Receiving Alpha Dogs

The other metric I added to the report last week was Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) which combines target share and air yard share into a more actionable metric. We want to go after players who are seeing a lot of targets and a lot of potential yards.

Darius Slayton has proven to be the lead dog in the New York Giants wide receiver room and this was on full display in week 5 against the Cowboys. He caught 8 passes for 129 yards on a 38% target share. He scored two touchdowns in week 1 but hasn’t seen the end zone since. His WOPR is improving and the touchdowns should follow. Load him up as a confident WR2.

However, I am still not completely confident trusting CeeDee Lamb on a weekly basis. He is coming off his best WOPR performance of the year and we already touched on Cooper’s down week. Couple that with the connection that Michael Gallup showed with Andy Dalton in the Cowboys comeback and I still think we have to wait and see how this new Cowboys offense will look moving forward. Lamb has all the talent in the world, but there are some usage question marks out there that need to be answered for this offense.

Rushing Yard Alpha Dogs

We don’t often see a running back get 100% of the rushing yards, but that is exactly what Ronald Jones did Thursday night on his way to 106 yards rushing. Evidently, Leonard Fournette was not completely healthy even though he was active for the game, so this just means another week ahead of us where we won’t be able to predict the Tampa Bay backfield. It’s almost as if Bruce Arians likes messing with fantasy owners.

Joe Mixon owners may be looking to trade the Bengals star running back after a disappointing week 5 showing in the box score. Mixon still accounted for 84% of Cincinnati’s rushing yards and saw 28% of targets, so I would advise holding on to him. It’s hard to produce a high fantasy score when your team only scores 3 points (unless your name is McCaffrey or Mike Davis).

Budding Bell-Cows

Speaking of Mike Davis, this man has been incredible for the Panthers since CMC went down with an injury. Fantasy owners who scooped him up were hoping to have a guy they could plug into lineups to fill the gaping hole that McCaffrey left, and instead, they ended up with a guy who is on pace to score 400 PPR points. What?! Unbelievable, and it’s been awesome to watch.

Similar to Mixon above, I wouldn’t be selling Antonio Gibson just yet. He saw a 38% usage rating and accounted for 79% of Washington’s rushing attempts and 18% of their targets. The Washington offense had a rough go of it on Sunday against the Rams star-studded defensive line, but I view Gibson as a reliable RB2 moving forward.

Losing their Grip on RB1 status

It looks like it’s time to go ahead and drop Malcolm Brown in all formats. He is clearly the third most explosive running back on the Rams and his usage numbers are showing it.

Jerrick McKinnon saw decreased usage, which was expected with Raheem Mostert back in the fold on Sunday. But while he is worth holding onto in case of another injury, he will be tough to start when Mostert is healthy.

I’m not worrying about Derrick Henry’s low usage rating this week, we already talked about how the Titans game was a bit fluky this week.

Falling out of Favor in the Receiving Corps

It’s looking like the beginning of the end for AJ Green, at least on this Bengals team. Green looked completely out of it on Sunday against the Ravens and all signs are pointing to his days in Cincinnati being numbered. If Tee Higgins is still available in your league I think he is worthy of stashing.

Scotty Miller played 45 snaps on Thursday night and didn’t see a single target. This is extremely concerning considering that Chris Godwin should return in Week 6.

Honorable Work Ethic

It’s tough to criticize these iron men who are stepping out on the field pretty much anytime their offense runs a play. A couple of these guys turned in disappointing weeks (Gabriel Davis and Jeff Smith), but the opportunity is clearly there.

The Workload Report: Week 5

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

Running Back Rankings

Runaway Bell-Cows

  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Derrick Henry
  4. Mike Davis
  5. Aaron Jones
  6. Miles Sanders
  7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  8. Josh Jacobs
  9. Joe Mixon
  10. David Montgomery
  11. Kareem Hunt
  12. James Robinson
  13. Myles Gaskin
  14. Chris Carson
  15. Alexander Mattison
  16. Devin Singletary

Bell-cows Dealing with a 3rd Down/Goal-Line Vulture

  1. James Conner
  2. Antonio Gibson
  3. Jonathan Taylor
  4. Raheem Mostert
  5. Todd Gurley
  6. David Johnson (assuming Duke Johnson’s role expands in second week back from injury)
  7. Kenyan Drake
  8. Ronald Jones
  9. Melvin Gordon (pending outcome of DUI, Lindsay expected back)
  10. Devonta Freeman

Running Back by Committee (RBBC) w/ Fantasy Potential

  1. Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins
  2. Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley
  3. Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown

Untouchable backfield until further notice

  1. Adrian Peterson, Kerryon Johnson, D’Andre Swift
  2. Damien Harris, James White, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel
  3. Frank Gore, Lamical Perine, Trevon Wesco

Wide Receiver Rankings

Alpha Target Hogs

  1. DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Davante Adams
  3. Michael Thomas
  4. Keenan Allen
  5. Adam Thielen
  6. Allen Robinson
  7. Stefon Diggs
  8. Kenny Golladay
  9. Jamison Crowder
  10. Marquise Brown
  11. Tyreek Hill
  12. AJ Brown
  13. Terry McLaurin

Receiving Room Busting with Talent

  1. Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones
  2. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
  3. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup
  4. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
  5. Robby Anderson, DJ Moore
  6. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp
  7. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool
  8. Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry
  9. Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb
  10. Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry

Fantasy Breakout Waiting to Happen

  1. Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford
  2. Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Mike Thomas
  3. Darius Slayton, Golden Tate
  4. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler
  5. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne
  6. DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole
  7. Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor

Tough to Count on as your WR3

  1. TY Hilton, Zach Pascal
  2. Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, DeSean Jackson

Tight End Rankings

Every Week Baller

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. George Kittle
  3. Mark Andrews
  4. Darren Waller
  5. Hunter Henry
  6. Mike Gesicki
  7. TJ Hockenson
  8. Jonnu Smith
  9. Noah Fant
  10. Jared Cook
  11. Jimmy Graham
  12. Zach Ertz

Fantasy Relevant

  1. Evan Engram
  2. Hayden Hurst
  3. Robert Tonyan
  4. Eric Ebron
  5. Austin Hooper
  6. Trey Burton

Fantasy Potential

  1. Dalton Schultz
  2. Tyler Eifert
  3. Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate
  4. Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee
  5. Logan Thomas
  6. Irv Smith, Kyle Rudolph
  7. Greg Olsen

Out there to Block

  1. Chris Herndon
  2. Dawson Knox
  3. Drew Sample
  4. Darren Fells, Jordan Akins
  5. Darrell Daniels
  6. Ian Thomas
  7. Ryan Izzo

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