Fantasy Football Buy Low, Sell High (2018 Trade Deadline)

The Trade Deadline has arrived! Who should you Buy Low or Sell High on?

Sell High

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck (QB-IND)

Currently the No.5 QB Points Per Game, Luck is the no-brainer comeback player of 2018. Despite a slow Weeks 1-3 while easing back to health and learning Frank Reich’s system, Luck’s been on absolute fire of late. He’s tossed 3+ TDs and topped 22 FPs in every game since, and appears to have his full arm strength back.

So, obviously, the time to Sell High has arrived.

Mainly, the schedule is absolutely horrendous. Luck has two dates with Jacksonville, and all his matchups fall in the “Red” avoid category. Additionally most of these matchups project against teams that drain clock and purposely play slow, grind-it-out styles of football.

Reich’s attack, currently second in the league in pass attempts, will remain pass-obsessed. Still, Luck seems likely to struggle. Unload while his value is at its peak.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG)

Indeed, with elite receiving ability and such heavy weekly volume, Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG) is matchup-proof. He hasn’t been below 15 FPs on the year, and has topped 20 FPs in 50% of his games.

Still, a murderer’s row of matchups certainly doesn’t help. Granted, he gets two softies in SF (13th) and TB (6th) over his next two weeks, but then it’s straight brutality to close out 2018. Even more worrisome is Barkley’s reliance on the “big play,” as those may be harder to find against these stouter fronts.

No, you’re not suddenly selling low or benching Barkley. But if you’re trying to pull off a block-buster for a true stud, Barkley’s schedule is reason enough to side with Melvin Gordon (RB-LAC), Kareem Hunt (RB-KC) or Alvin Kamara (RB-NO) instead. Plus, depending on your roster makeup, moving Barkley for an elite WR with a cake schedule – i.e. Michael Thomas (WR-NO) — is surprisingly recommended.

 

Adrian Peterson (RB-WAS)

The NFL’s fifth highest rusher and fantasy’s RB11, Peterson has been a late round gem. He’s running as angrily as ever, and has become the engine of the Redskins’ offense with Chris Thompson hampered for much of the year.

But all signs point to Sell High, and now.

For one, the line is now down three of their starters, including both guards and all-pro LT Trent Williams. Their RT Morgan Moses is also in concussion protocol.  Losing the entire interior of his line, and potentially both bookends, will mean far less running room for AP.

Additionally, the schedule gradually gets tougher each week, leading into the fifth hardest playoff schedule among RBs. And that’s assuming the 33-year old back makes it through the season unscathed.

The cinderella story has been fun. But AP’s season seems likely to end with a crash. Sell while you can.

 

Wide Receivers

TY Hilton (WR-IND)

This marks the second straight season Hilton has landed on our “Sell High” list, and we were dead accurate last year:

Game Log – Texans & ROS:

Though he doesn’t have the selling benefit of a recent blow-up, Hilton still has plenty of high-end WR2 name value.  He’s been a surprisingly solid fit into Frank Reich’s West Coast offense, topping 13 in 4 of his 6 GP.

But, just like last year, a schedule doesn’t get much uglier than his — by far the hardest remaining SoS of all WRs. Hilton gets JAX (32nd) twice, and 5 of his remaining 7 come from the 7th least generous defenses. He will struggle to find room against some of the tougher press corners in the league, and should unfortunately be in for some serious duds. Sell.

 

Dare we say… 

Tyreek Hill (WR-KC)

Look, no one loves Tyreek more than us. He was our posterboy last year and made us look like geniuses. It would take a significant bounty to move the guy.

But as the current No.3 WR in fantasy and NFL’s receiving TD leader, a significant bounty would be in store if you deal him. This offense is matchup proof, I get it. Still, Hill has the 5th hardest remaining schedule. He also has a groin ailment that could worsen if he missteps. If Hill can be packaged to yield you an elite workhorse like Melvin Gordon or Alvin Kamara, now would be the time to pull the trigger.

Tight Ends

Eric Ebron (TE-IND)

As predicted after his work with Zach Ertz and Antonio Gates, new Colts’ HC Frank Reich has made the TE the focal point of his passing attack. With original No.1 Jack Doyle shelved for the majority of 2018, Eric Ebron has thrived. He’s the TE4 in fantasy, trailing only Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle thanks to a position-best 7 TDs.

Which is, of course, why you need to sell ASAP. For one, Ebron is nearly forgotten outside of the RZ when Doyle plays. Whereas Doyle has played 93%, 96%, and 73% of snaps when active, Ebron has logged just 45%, 26%, and, most concerningly 21% of snaps despite his dominant performance in Doyle’s absence. Doyle’s also seen 22 targets as compared to 12 for Ebron in said games.

Also concerning is the hardest TE strength of schedule. Ebron doesn’t have a single “Green Light” matchup, and 5 of 7 coming against the Red. The offense as a whole feels likely to struggle in these games, and with his usage diminishing to just RZ snaps, any toll on scoring upside would crush Ebron’s upside. Sell him while he’s still relevant. 

Rob Gronkowski (TE-NE)

Often selected in Round 2, Rob Gronkowski is among the biggest busts of the 2018 campaign. The usual WR1 cheat code hasn’t scored or topped 100 yards since Week 1, with just 3 double digit FP outings on the year. He doesn’t look as explosive as usual off the line, and he seems to have gone from the No.1 weapon to maybe 3 or 4 behind James White, Julian Edelman, and maybe even Josh Gordon. Plus, the team clearly wants to be run-heavier with Sony Michel whenever he returns.

Even still, the “Gronk” name value remains huge. There’ll always be the allure that “Gronk of old” returns. Someone is always willing to bet on that “massive edge” coming back.

Though he could rebound for these last six weeks and make this look dumb, I’m not betting on it. His own health, a crowded cast, and also the fifth hardest SoS are all working against him. Let someone think they are “Buying Low,” and capitalize on the name value.

 

We hope this helps you dominate your 2018 Fantasy Trade Deadline! For any specific questions, hit up @RotoStreetWolf on Twitter. Plus, for more on the Strength of Schedule that went into this post, be sure to check out our 2018 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Guide.

Author

  • Founder of Roto Street Journal. Lover of workhorse backs, target hog wideouts, and Game of Thrones. Aspiring to be the "Brady" and "Leo" of the fantasy universe.

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