Fantasy Football Strategy: Buy Low, Sell High Week 9 - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Strategy: Buy Low, Sell High Week 9

Hi everybody, welcome back to Buy Low, Sell High for Week 9 of the fantasy season. We’re in the middle of the tough bye week stretch where it seems like every team has to roll out the scrubbiest of scrubs just to field a full lineup. This is a great time to take advantage if you have an extra player or two who aren’t on bye as people are very short-sighted sometimes and may be willing to part with a better player if it means you can provide them with a decent warm body or two for the week. Don’t be shy about separating them from their studs!

Players to Sell

So my first sell isn’t actually a 100% sell. I don’t think Alex Collins is necessarily owned in a ton of leagues and if you do have him and can get something for him, you should feel okay about selling him. At the same time, if he is available to pick up off of the waiver wire, I recommend doing so. Basically, I think Collins can be solid and I expect him to be useful next week but the Ravens have a bye in week 10 and as soon as Danny Woodhead is cleared to return (which may come as early as week 11), we don’t know how Collins’ role is going to hold up. Bottom line, I like Collins but there’s enough uncertainty there that if somebody in your league is getting hit hard by the bye week, he’s a good candidate to move for a more stable option if you can.

I’ve tried to stick by Isaiah Crowell as much as possible but he’s just been junk all year long. The one week he finally went off was the one week that nobody on the planet was using him because he was playing a tough defense and the Browns were likely to be behind and using Duke Johnson all day. Of course, when you try to apply logic to fantasy football, maybe just don’t bother. Either way, Crowell finally had a game where he wasn’t total crap so sell him if you can. I’m not optimistic that he’ll do it again.

I told you last week, every time LeSean McCoy has a good game he’ll be here… In all seriousness, Shady is great but I still expect the Bills to fall off a cliff so I’d rather move him for a player or players in a good offense than rely on the Bills doing enough to make him top shelf all year long. By all means though, if the right deal isn’t there, don’t sell him for cheap.

I keep expecting this to be the week that Frank Gore fully cedes his work to Marlon Mack and yet every week he defies me (like he’s done really for the past 5 years). Eventually the Colts will decide that it really is time to look towards the future and they’ll take a full assessment of what they have in Mack and we can’t be far off from that point. Just sell Gore as the consistent presence that he is and see if you can find a desperate suitor.

This isn’t the first time I’ve claimed that the run really has to be over for DeShaun Watson and Will Fuller and I’ve been wrong every time so far. That being said, the schedule gets tougher and Watson can’t really be better than every other rookie QB ever (can he?) and Will Fuller will not continue to score a TD on 50% of his receptions. I’m more optimistic on Watson’s outlook than Fuller but I’d still be happy to move either or both.

Much like the Watson/Fuller duo, I’d look to capitalize on the big game from Russell Wilson and Paul Richardson. Wilson has proven to be a solid QB in the past but he’s very game flow dependent and I don’t think Seattle is likely to have too many more outings where they let up as many points as they did this week. With Richardson, I still think Doug Baldwin is the guy and I’d rather have the top guy in a mid-level passing offense than the #3 option in Richardson.

Still not buying the narrative that Chris Thompson is a top 12 RB this year. I think he ends the season closer to 25 at the position which means I think there’s quite a bit of negative movement left to come for him. His touchdown luck has come down a bit from the first few weeks and I expect that to continue, so you’re really hoping for a ton of receptions to make him worth using. He’s definitely still useful (and more than just useful in PPR) but I think his best days have already occurred this season and that at best you’re looking at Theo Riddick (when Riddick was actually good) for the rest of the season.

Players to Buy

Everybody was expecting a huge blowup in the return to action for Stefon Diggs and it just wasn’t there. If his owner is disappointed after waiting weeks for him to return from injury and laying a dud then you should take advantage. He has always been streaky and has games where he’s non-existent followed by games where he looks like the best player who ever lived. Grab him now while his value is still low.

AJ Green had a TD but otherwise this is two weeks in a row of lackluster production. Green is a stud and we know this. If his owner is willing to let him go for just a little below market value, you shouldn’t hesitate. A stud is a stud.

Tom Brady didn’t do much this week and even worse was the production (or lack thereof) from Brandin Cooks. The Patriots have a bye this week so neither of these players can help you this week but it may be worth making a move for one of them now while their disappointing performance is still fresh in everyone’s minds and their owner needs to replace them in their lineup over the bye week. Brady is Brady and there’s no reason to think he can’t have a great second half. I think Cooks is in line for a boost in receptions with the Chris Hogan injury. It’s possible that Hogan isn’t that hurt, but it looked bad and until I hear otherwise, I’m considering him out for a while.

I said it last week and I’m even more on the wagon this week – I want Carlos Hyde. The Hyde owner is likely panicking because Matt Breida stole a touchdown reception from him but I’m not panicking. I think Pierre Garcon got dinged up a bit which will leave the 49ers no choice but to run, run and run some more. Hyde has the most talent on this team and I think talent will win out here.

After Tevin Coleman‘s big day, maybe people will have more concern about his role and be willing to ship Devonta Freeman for less than they should. Much like with AJ Green, Freeman is a stud and you should always grab a stud when you can in a trade. Coleman had some big weeks last year too but that didn’t stop Freeman from being a beast. Play up Coleman’s day and go for the jugular on Freeman.

The Jets had an abysmal game. Bilal Powell had fairly rough numbers. Lost in that situation is the fact that Powell dominated the carries. We may finally be seeing a break away where Powell establishes himself over Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire. It is still the Jets, so who really knows what they’re doing for sure, but we’ve seen in the past that Powell has the necessary skills to be a big time RB if given the carries. He’s worth taking a chance on based on his current price and potential.

Howdy ho! Jameis Winston dropped a giant Mr. Hankey sized turd this week. That being said, I still love the ability with Jameis and I don’t foresee many more games like this one. Some days you just can’t get it going and that was the case with Jameis this week. You can probably get him on the cheap and if you’re currently rolling with a less talented QB, I’d suggest adding him in a bigger trade as the throw-in piece. In the same vein – Mike Evans hasn’t been all that great lately but when both he and Winston heat up it could be magical (and win some titles). All-in on Tampa turning this around and I’d love to get Evans and Winston any and everywhere for that turn around.

While I’m selling on Wilson and Richardson after their big game, I think there’s a lot of profit still to be had on buying in on Doug Baldwin. The guy has super talent and on the weeks when Richardson and Jimmy Graham aren’t somehow stealing all of the TDs, Baldwin should come up big. He’s also traditionally been a second half beast so there’s that as well.

Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant had a brutal game but as of this writing there’s a possibility of Ezekiel Elliott having to serve his suspension (you’ll probably know which way this went when you read this). If Elliott is suspended then the Cowboys are going to have to rely on Dak and Dez to carry the team until Elliott returns. Even if Elliott is not suspended, I’d expect both of these players to be more involved than they were this week. Either way, I want a piece of Dez in particular and I especially want them both if Elliott has to serve his suspension.

Trade Analysis

 

Once again, only one trade to speak of this week for me:

Amari Cooper for Carlos Hyde

I told you last week that I wanted to move Cooper now that he’d had a big game and I wanted to buy into some shares of Hyde. I also desperately needed Hyde as my running backs in the league are below mediocre. Cooper reverted to the 5 catch 50 yard pace that I was expecting of him this past week while Hyde didn’t get much going. I’m less sure of this deal than most but I think it will benefit me when all is said and done.

That’s all for this week! Get out there and take advantage of those bye weeks! As always, holler at me in the comments below!

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