Welcome to Week 4 running back start ’em, sit ’em!
Fantasy managers in the trenches who might be reading this with their backs against the wall: this is your moment.
In 2006, a cinematic masterpiece about heart, grit, and determination premiered.
Rocky Balboa brought back the inspirational underdog story of Rocky around 20 years after taking down Ivan Drago in Rocky IV.
While in the ring with the heavyweight champion, the Italian Stallion, who was approaching 60, found the strength to push through the wall in front of him and go the distance.
A callback to his inspirational speech to his son about not letting anyone define who you are and what you’re worth, an inner monologue plays where Rocky reminds himself of the lesson he was teaching.
“It ain’t about how hard you can hit; it’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward, how much you can take and keep moving forward…. Get up.”
If you’re 0-3, your season isn’t over; it’s just an uphill battle. Win the week, and stare down your leaguemates and let them know it isn’t over!
Nailing those start/sit questions is essential, especially for running backs!
Week 4 features a slew of RB starts that might require a little extra fortitude to submit. It’s paramount to appropriately gauge floors, upside, and exploitable matchups.
As always, remember this is just a game. There’s no need to target NFL players on social media for lackluster fantasy performances (ok, maybe sometimes).
Fire up The Wolf’s Week 4 Rankings and LET’S GO!
WEEK 4 RUNNING BACK START ‘EM
BRAELON ALLEN, NYJ VS. CHICAGO BEARS
Breece Hall can’t seem to catch a break these days. A juicy matchup with the Chicago Bears, and he goes down with an injury the week before.
Allen, the mountain of muscle, is in a smash spot in Week 4 against a vulnerable Bears defense that bleeds touchdowns to running backs.
In two of their three games this season, the Bears defense has allowed a RB to either score a touchdown or go over the century mark.
While his role may be uncertain this week, evidence collected this season suggests Allen will get fed out the gate.
Diving into the numbers, the Bears have allowed an average of 20 FP/g to RBs, with 11.5 coming on the ground.
RBs haven’t just relied on volume to get it done with the Bears this season. Chicago has allowed 0.85 fantasy points per opportunity and 0.88 points per touch.
Allen has RB1 upside with a low RB2 floor this week.
BUCKY IRVING, TB VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
If the Bears are a juicy matchup, then the Packers are a pristine filet mignon, seared to perfection, and ready for RBs to sink their teeth into.
After a rough Week 3 against Minnesota, Irving is primed to bounce back against the Packers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Through three weeks, the Packers have surrendered 30.7 ppg to the position, with nearly 25 points coming on the ground.
RBs are averaging nearly a full fantasy point per opportunity (0.95) and touch (0.96).
After a hot start in Week 1, Irving has cooled off a bit, but has still been a strong weekly play.
His role has been worth 14.3 xFP/g and has commanded 63.5% of the team’s snaps despite sitting out in the fourth quarter last week with a glute injury.
With nearly 73% of the team’s designed rush attempts going to Irving, he has a clear path to a multi-TD week.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON, NE VS. BUFFALO
This is more of a gutsy call than I care to admit. Buffalo stinks against running backs, but it still takes a lot of cojones to start any Patriots player with the current state of the offense.
The fact is that Buffalo doesn’t discriminate with how it gets burned by opposing backs.
The Bills have surrendered an average of 13.2 FP/g on the ground and 14.3 FP/g through the air to running backs.
Early usage shows the Patriots still prefer to use Stevenson as a pass catcher, and he has commanded the lion’s share of the snaps this season vs. TreVeyon Henderson.
Worth noting, though, Henderson appears to be in a position to supplant Stevenson as the primary rusher.
Despite seeing 46% of the team’s snaps vs. Stevenson’s 60.6%, the Patriots have designed carries for Henderson 51.1% of the time, while Stevenson is the intended ball carrier 43.1% of the time.
There’s enough juice on the bone for both Stevenson and Henderson to serve as flex-worthy plays this week.
Other RB starts: TreVeyon Henderson vs. BUF, Woody Marks vs. DAL
WEEK 4 RUNNING BACK SIT ‘EM
OLLIE GORDON, MIA VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Gordon set the hype train in motion after taking over for De’Von Achane, who tore his ACL in Week 3.
He played well, handling 17 carries for 41 yards and a score while catching all three of his targets for 14 yards.
While he was highly inefficient on the ground, Gordon still shouldered a heavy load. It’s worth noting that he was the only usable running back for Miami in Week 3.
Jaylen Wright, who is technically listed as the RB2 on the depth chart when healthy, was out with a foot injury.
He has a chance to play in Week 4 against a stingy Minnesota Vikings defense that has not allowed more than 8 fantasy points to the position this season.
It’s not clear if Gordon or Wright will serve as the primary back for Miami in Week 4, but if both play, then it’s highly unlikely either handles enough work to be relevant without a touchdown.
Gordon should do nothing more than cheer on your team from the fantasy sidelines if you can avoid it.
ALVIN KAMARA VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
If you look closely, you can see a thin cloud of dust following Kamara everywhere he goes.
All kidding aside, Kamara’s best days were several seasons ago.
Now he has to square up as the likely primary back against the Falcons, who have put the clamps on running backs through the ground, allowing only 4.8 ppg this season.
The Falcons can be beaten through the air, but it’s still not a favorable matchup, allowing only 8.7 ppg in the receiving game to RBs.
Kamara, who has made a career as a pass catcher, will definitely serve as the primary receiving back with Kendre Miller rotating in.
With enough checkdown work, Kamara COULD return some sort of fantasy value this week. But to that point, I draw your attention back to my Pigpen joke above.
I’m not touching the Saints backfield this week.
JK DOBBINS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Speaking of grit and resiliency, we may be staring at the end of one of the toughest backs in the league.
Last week, Dobbins had 17 carries against the Rams and managed just 49 yards and added one snag for four yards.
The Broncos OL is not doing him any favors, giving him an average of 1.34 yards before contact per attempt.
Still, Dobbins has only had an explosive run on 6.7% of his carries and has not done well at creating for himself.
Through three games, Dobbins has produced -22.6 rush yards over expectation and is forcing a missed tackle on only 6% of his carries.
The 49ers do not appear to be a get-right game for Dobbins, who appears to be closer to the end than many are prepared for.
San Francisco has only let Kyren Williams into the end zone since the start of the season.
His role with the Broncos this year has only been worth 9.5 xFP/g (RB33), suggesting his fantasy value is tied to scoring touchdowns.
With RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman getting run as well, it’s hard to see fantasy production in Dobbins’ future this week.
Other RB sits: Tony Pollard (BAL), Quinshon Judkins (PIT)
