It’s time to roll up our sleeves, crack our knuckles, and eat a well-balanced lunch! No more playing games in fantasy football. It’s time to get serious.
Grab a coffee, a 5-hour energy, or whatever gets you jacked, focused, and fueled. Let’s optimize those rosters, trim away the dead weight, and make a mean, green, title-winning machine out of those fantasy squads.
Disclaimer: If you are an opponent of mine in any league, this article is not for you. I recommend the Magic 8-ball for all your fantasy advice!
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide through when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping roster construction.
Let’s go!
Week 8 Buy-Low Players
George Pickens
Weird to say after a big Pickens blow-up week. But everyone saw the tape last week, right? Pickens and Russell Wilson just fit together like two pieces of a puzzle.
Wilson appeared much more willing to press the ball downfield than Justin Fields was and the connection between Wilson and Pickens was better than with Fields.
George Pickens turned this into a 37-yard play https://t.co/BzGTQzJAe0 pic.twitter.com/dO1CSl6R8j
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 21, 2024
On the season, Pickens is scoring -3.6 fantasy points over expectation (15.3 xFP). This season he has seen 1.1 end zone targets and 2.4 deep targets per game. He ranks 8th among WRs with 0.66 xTD/g and is averaging a commanding 79.4% weighted opportunity rating.
In week 7 under Wilson, Pickens saw an average depth of target of 16.9 yards downfield and commanded nearly 70% of the team’s air yards.
It’s unlikely that he will score 22.1 fantasy points per game the rest of the season, but the opportunity with Wilson looks too good not to take a stab at. With his stock trending up, now is the time to swoop in and buy him before the market catches up.
Raheem Mostert
With Tua coming back, it’s time to buy as many pieces of this backfield as you can before their value inflates again.
Mostert, while the least explosive of the three Dolphins running backs, has one of the most valuable slices of the pie on the ground, at least according to PFF’s usage chart.

While the Dolphins have leaned more heavily on Achane this season, it’s Mostert who has commanded the goal line work this season.
Since getting banged up early this season, he’s carried the ball 30 times for 130 yards. Pair that with a finally functioning offense that will provide plenty of touchdown equity, and Mostert could return to his touchdown machine ways if he continues to own the goal-line work.
With a top-10 rest-of-season strength of schedule ahead for the Miami backfield, Mostert is a pristine buy-low candidate. *Whispers* Try to buy Jaylen Wright too, just in case either he or Achane goes down again.
Situations to monitor: Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid
Week 8 Sell-High Players
Tee Higgins
Higgins has out-targeted Ja’Marr Chase in each game since he’s returned from injury. While I continue to fume over the absolute irresponsible debauchery that is, Higgins has, at least, lived up to the billing his target volume has commanded.
On the season, his usage has been worth 16.3 xFP (-0.1 FPOE). In other words, Higgins is doing exactly what he’s supposed to do with his opportunity.
The highest-graded Bengals in Week 7 vs the Browns:
— PFF CIN Bengals (@PFF_Bengals) October 21, 2024
🥇 Trey Hendrickson – 85.5
🥈 Tee Higgins – 82.8
🥉 Ja'Marr Chase – 76.8
🏅 B.J. Hill – 71.5
🏅 Kris Jenkins – 70.7 pic.twitter.com/gMqJUvS0VJ
Higgins’ 17-game pace would have him finish with 276 fantasy points (16.2 ppg) in PPR formats (WR10), ahead of Garrett Wilson and behind Drake London.
With an 11th-ranked ROS SOS, it’s not asinine to believe Higgins will continue to produce at his current pace. However, in the five games they have played together, here are the results:
Air Yards (%) | aDOT | Targets | WOPR | |
Tee Higgins | 39.2 | 10.2 | 45 | 71.3% |
Ja’Marr Chase | 33.1 | 10.4 | 37 | 59.2% |
As the season goes, Chase will dig more and more into that target share, and the aerial pie likely shifts back more heavily in his favor. After all, despite being out-targeted, Chase is the WR5 in ppg and the WR1 in fantasy points scored.
Sell Higgins for good value and nothing less!
Darnell Mooney
It appears that the talent and the production are starting to meet back up.
An obvious negative regression candidate, Mooney is starting to fade in this offense as Bijan Robinson rounds more into form, Kyle Pitts starts eating downfield, and Drake London remains the aerial alpha of this passing attack.
Since blowing up in that overtime thriller against the Bucs in week 5, Mooney has failed to find the end zone or have more than 50 receiving yards.
Aside from that one blow-up game, Mooney still has 12 fewer targets and nine fewer receptions than London and is only averaging a 21% target share.

Still, he’s caught only five more balls than Pitts, who is catching fire, and nine fewer passes than London, who has emerged as Kirk Cousins‘ clear favorite target.
He is teetering more into a floor-play flex option that you hope gets you a boom game with a touchdown. Sell him to a WR-needy team for some RB or TE help and some depth along with it!
Situations to monitor: Tank Bigsby, Najee Harris