Fantasy Football Week 7 Buy Low, Sell High: Sam LaPorta, James Conner, Rome Odunze

Is it time to be worried about James Conner? Is Tyrone Tracy about to take over the Giants backfield?

The fantasy playoffs are in sight. Seven weeks in, and there are seven more regular season weeks before the fantasy playoffs kick off in most leagues.

How are your fantasy squads looking? Buffed, polished, and ready to plow forward to the finish line? Or is a quick tune-up needed to get the vehicle roaring like a Ferrari?

Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide through when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping roster construction.

Week 7 Buy-Low Players

James Conner, RB Arizona Cardinals

Last week stunk for Conner.

If it hadn’t been four his four receptions, he likely gives fantasy managers close to a goose. It surely leaves a bad taste in fantasy managers mouths seeing rising rookie Trey Benson pacing the backfield on 5.2 yards per carry.

Still, reports came out that Conner was nursing an ankle injury and he was game-scripted out, not even carrying the ball in the second half.

On the season, Conner ranks 8th among all RBs with 17 red zone opportunities. Conner’s utilization thus far has been worth 13.2 xFP/g (22nd) and 0.42 xTD/g, 24th among RBs with at least 70 opportunities.

Getting Benson a little more involved bodes well for Conner’s long-term availability, something fantasy managers want to see, as the Cardinals have the best remaining RB fantasy strength of schedule. Go get Conner now and maybe try to cuff him with Benson and prepare for a strong fantasy run.

Rome Odunze, WR Chicago Bears

It is time.

via GIPHY

Forgive me Bears fans for using a lion to make the point. Given it’s the best Disney movie of all time, I feel a little grace can be shown!

Shane Waldron has shown that coaches aren’t too old change their stripes. Or is that zebras? Uh-oh.

Anyways! Where have we seen this Bears offense before? I can’t quite put my finger on it… oh that’s right. Seattle’s offense.

Tracking personnel grouping frequency, over the last few weeks, the Bears have lined up in 11 personnel at a higher clip than previous weeks, peaking at just under 90% last week. What happened last week? Caleb. Got. Cookin!

So far, Odunze has popped off in just one game. If this new commitment to 11 personnel is here to stay, as it hopefully is, then Odunze’s value is going to climb with this offense.

With an average depth of target of 13.8 and a commanding 30.2% of the time, it’s only a matter of time until that 16.7% target share starts to rise as well and Odunze becomes a reliable WR3/flex for that title run!

Situations to monitor: DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey

Week 6 Sell-High Players

Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions

LaPorta had been nursing an ankle injury and that could explain his lack of production, but even after the bye he just hadn’t been playing as much as usual.

In 2023, LaPorta made his hay in 12-personnel snaps, playing 97.5% of two tight end snaps. The same was said over the first few weeks in 2024. But a drop below 60% of two tight end snaps is a concerning trend.

Data courtesy of PFF

Last week, LaPorta caught his one and only target for a 52-yard scamper to paydirt. On the season, he only has 13 receptions and Sunday marked his only scoot for six.

The opportunity isn’t there for LaPorta, whose weighted opportunity rating is just ahead of Tim Patrick, and he’s only seen 10 targets. That’s a major red flag.

It’s probably best to try to capitalize on name value and post-TD hype. Maybe sell him for something akin to Jake Ferguson?

Tyrone Tracy, RB NY Giants

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Fantasy Outlook: Rest of Season STUD or Fools Gold?!

This sounds crazy, right? Tracy clearly has the most juice out of anyone in the backfield and is in line to cook, right?

Well, perhaps. This isn’t me just coming out and saying sell him because he’s about to stink!

Tracy served as the primary back while Devin Singletary was banged up. He filled in more than admirably, with many, myself included, claiming he needed to be the lead back to maximize the juice in the offense.

But, what will the backfield breakdown be like after Singletary comes back? Tracy already ceded third-down work to Eric Gray. How many snaps will look toward the running back position now that Malik Nabers is likely back and going to dominate offensive work again. The Giants will look to throw more, and that’s even less volume for a suddenly crowded backfield.

Between his 0.13 fantasy points per opportunity alongside Singletary’s 0.14, there’s no clear value separation between them. Singletary’s eight to four red zone opportunity advantage projects that he’s more likely (0.31 xTD/g) to get any running back touchdowns than Tracy (0.25 xTD/g).

The ideal scenario for Tracy is that he still holds the lead back job in a 60-40 timeshare with Singletary, but a committee of some kind squashes Tracy’s sparkling upside.

Situations to monitor: Najee Harris, Tank Dell

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