Fantasy Football Week 5 Buy Low, Sell High: Alexander Mattison, Brian Thomas Jr., Chase Brown

It's a good thing fantasy football is predictable, right? Is it time to buy or sell Brian Thomas Jr.?

How are everyone’s rosters doing? Are there any 4-0 players in here?

What an offensive bonanza the early slate was on Sunday!

Ja’Marr Chase’s ninth career 60-plus yard receiving touchdown ties him with Odell Beckham Jr. for the most by any player before turning 25.

In fact, according to the NFL, Chase has become the fifth player in the Super Bowl era with 4,000 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns in his first 50 career games. The other four?

  • Odell Beckham Jr.
  • AJ Green
  • Randy Moss
  • Jerry Rice

After four weeks, here are your PPR fantasy leaders at each position, just like everyone projected to start the year!

  • Quarterback – Jayden Daniels (23.7 ppg)
  • Running back – Alvin Kamara (26.7 ppg)
  • Wide receiver – Malik Nabers (22.9 ppg)
  • Tight end – George Kittle (14.4 ppg)

It’s a good thing fantasy football is predictable, right? Let’s get to our fantasy football Week 5 buy low, sell high!

Week 5 Buy-Low Players

Alexander Mattison, RB Las Vegas Raiders

I’ve been open with my opinions on Mattison as an NFL running back. Whether or not he is a good RB is up to interpretation.

Still, Mattison has been an end-zone magnet in recent weeks, making Zamir White irrelevant.

On the season, Mattison averages 4.24 fantasy points over expectation per game. That’s an impressive amount. The problem? Mattison’s role has only been good for 6.16 xFP this season.

Now, to be fair, White has actually made himself irrelevant. In Week 4, White was held to a putrid 2.9 yards per carry and has likely thrown away his shot as a starting running back.

The times, they are a’ changing! Nab Mattison and pad your depth or flex position.

Brian Thomas Jr.. WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Go get him! Now! Close the laptop, get off your internet browser, and go get him. I’ll wait.

Oh good, you’re back! How’d it go?

Thomas is about to blow up. Even if Doug Pederson is still the coach and hasn’t turned on his hearing aid to hear the cries of fantasy and Jaguar fans alike. Go away! Go away!

Over the last two weeks, Thomas’ first-read target rate has climbed from 17.4% -> 22.4% -> 33.3%. He’s been doing his part, cooking opposing corners and creating separation at a high clip.

Thomas and Lawrence appear to be on the precipice of having a special connection. Thomas has seen 27% of the team’s air yards and 21.5% of the team’s targets. More impressively, he’s successfully converting 84.9% of his air yards. In other words, he’s been highly efficient with his opportunity, and, with a 12.5 aDOT, his role drips with upside.

Go buy Thomas at a discount. After a couple more weeks, his price tag is likely to skyrocket.

Other players: Tucker Kraft, Trey McBride, Rome Odunze

Week 5 Sell-High Players

Chase Brown, RB Cincinnati Bengals

Last week, the Bengals running backs were given 30 total carries. How many did Brown get? 15.

Who was more efficient on those carries? Brown. I know what you must be thinking: if he was more efficient and split the backfield with Moss, why is he the sell-high candidate and not a stash?

Well, he could be a stash. If he keeps a stranglehold on the high-value red zone work, he could prove to be more valuable as a stash and play than as a sell-high.

But Brown is a sell-high to me because of two things. He is coming off an outlier two short-yard TD game, a role that Moss has had on lockdown the previous three weeks.

Who is the primary pass-catching RB on the team? You guessed it, Moss. Through the first four games, Moss has seen 15 targets to Brown’s nine and Moss is averaging 8 yards per reception vs. Brown’s 4.4.

Data and graphics courtesy of PFF

Now, don’t get me wrong; I’m not excited about rostering either option. But through the season, Moss’ role has been worth 14.0 xFP vs. Brown’s 8.1. In week four, despite not getting the red zone work, Moss’ usage was still worth 14.5 xFP, while Brown’s heavy red zone usage (five opportunities) was worth only 15.6 xFP.

Unless the keys are being handed over to Brown, which doesn’t seem likely, this backfield still projects to belong to Moss.

Pat Freiermuth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

The Muth has only been a top-10 fantasy tight end once this season, last weekend.

Since last season, Freiermuth has been a TE1 in only 25% of his games and a TE3 or worse in 44% of his games since the start of the 2023 season.

With Justin Fields at QB, Friermuth has not scored less than 6.7 ppg and is on an upward trend, but his usage in 12-personnel is alarming.

via GIPHY

In the first two weeks, Freiermuth was on the field for 16.2% of snaps in 12 personnel, firmly behind Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt, ac. Since Pruitt was injured and has been out weeks three and four, the team has shifted out of 12-personnel more, leading to Freiermuth being on the field more.

Scoring double-digit tight ends once this season doesn’t bode well for his long-term sustainability at the position, especially with the imminent return of Pruitt and Jaylen Warren.

Situations to monitor:

  • Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid’s primary usage comes while the Bills are trailing and/or lining up in 11 personnel. He’s a hold right now, but monitor his usage patterns moving forward.
  • Mark Andrews: Perhaps the low-hanging fruit of this list, Andrews has raised fantasy panic sirens after back-to-back gooses in the score column. With falling usage across the board with both tight ends, Andrews fantasy value is volatile.
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