After reading everyone’s “don’t overreact, it’s only three weeks into the NFL season” posts, I am here to remind you that three weeks into the season also means the 2024 fantasy football regular season is already 20% complete.
With that in mind, I thought it’d be fun to reimagine how we’d draft the first round of the 2024 fantasy football season, knowing what we know now. Hindsight is 20/20, but there are still plenty of questions—and potential injuries—waiting to unfold as the season progresses.
One great tool for this experiment is to fire up the 2024 Rest of Season Rankings and see where Wolf would rank players if the season were rewritten.
Believe it or not, I don’t recommend drafting Christian McCaffrey with your first overall pick. I wouldn’t even recommend drafting Tyreek Hill in the first round at this point, seeing that his quarterback is in an iron lung. So, how would I redraft the 2024 fantasy football 1st round through three weeks, you ask? Here is Round 1:
2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL 1ST ROUND REDRAFT
1.01 SAQUON BARKLEY, RB PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
It is impossible not to look back and kick ourselves at how stupid the fantasy community was with the signing of Saquon Barkley with the Philadelphia Eagles. As soon as the signing was made, we had some beacons of light trying to daylight the opportunity that Barkey would have in Philadelphia; however, a lot more people were worried about Jalen Hurts diminishing his usage and that he would be entering the season at the ripe old age of 27.
As we head into the fourth week of fantasy, Saquon leads all players in .5PPR scoring. Are people worried about his age? How about a 65-yard touchdown reaching over 21 mph to put your worries at rest?
One of the most impressive aspects of his production is that he has done it while the Eagles have not looked great. In the first three weeks, the Eagles are 2-1 and have not been the “high-powered offense” we would expect to see out of the lead scoring player in fantasy football. For instance, in Week 3, the Eagles put up a whopping 15 points, a finish promised to leave fantasy owners disappointed… except for Saquon.
Saquon has yet to see a game in which he hasn’t handled 80% of snaps, dealt with the ball less than 20 times, or finished with less than 100 overall yards. The consensus 10th player off the board in 2024 fantasy drafts finds himself at the top of the list in this redraft and is a bonafide stud to lean on through the rest of the season.
1.02 JUSTIN JEFFERSON, WR MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Justin Jefferson cracks the top of my WR list for one reason—he has done it before. In August, folks were cautiously optimistic about Jefferson’s season as he would be going into it with newly drafted QB J.J. McCarthy. Although Jefferson had seen most of his success under gunslinger Kirk Cousins, McCarthy brought a new… *tearing noise*… Right, everyone, can I reintroduce you to Sam Darnold?
While there was still optimism due to Jefferson’s previous success catching balls from underwhelming QBs (they averaged 22.4 points per game with Nick Mullens), there was still a worry about Jefferson’s ceiling in season-long leagues. Someone who wasn’t so worried? The Wolf, of course.
We are entering week 4 with Justin Jefferson standing at WR5, which is less than 5 points from WR1. Even more impressive is that his Quarterback is sitting at QB4 with a seemingly impressive floor due to the Kevin O’Connell playbook, which seems to put no cap on Justin Jefferson’s ceiling. Even better, Darnold seems to have the buy-in of the locker room and Justin Jefferson.
I would take Jefferson 1.02 because he has the track record to show us he can carry this momentum all season. The supporting cast on the Vikings, like Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor, have all shown flashes that defenses need to respect, forcing them not to throw the entire kitchen at Jefferson on every snap. Jefferson sees his draft stop rise two spots from preseason to week 4.
1.03 BREECE HALL, RB NY JETS
Although Breece Hall is currently sitting at RB6, the prospects for the rest of his season are incredible.
From Weeks 1-3, Hall went up against the San Fransisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, and New England Patriots and never finished a game with less than 80 overall yards and found the endzone in two of those weeks. Most impressive is how he is being utilized by ayahuasca-addicted QB Aaron Rodgers, finding his targets and keeping pace with his 76 receptions in his 2023 sophomore campaign.
He is even throwing his body on the line to protect the estranged quarterback.
There will be a lot of chirping from the fantasy community about the rise of Braelon Allen, but do not get nervous that the rise of Allen means the fall of Hall. In 2023, there were only two weeks that Breece Hall saw over 71% of snaps. In weeks that he had between 61 and 71 percent of snaps, he still saw an average of 15.3 FFPs, which would have seen him finish as the RB3 in average points per game last season.
1.04 MALIK NABERS, WR NY GIANTS
In the words of Myles Garret, Malik Nabers is a bad boy.
Words could not explain the shock I would have had in the summer of 2024 if you told me that after Week 3 of the season, the QBs for WR2 and WR3 in standard scoring would be Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. Yet, here we are, living in this hellish nightmare we call fantasy foresight.
Nabers currently finds himself as WR1 in both .5PPR and full point PPR and has a lot of fantasy owners pissed off at themselves. Here is a neat little stat: Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr., and DJ Moore were all drafted over Malik Nabers in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Over the first three weeks of the season, those players combined scored 58.7 points in .5 PPR scoring. Malik Nabers has scored 57 points in that same amount of time.
In July, CJay warned us about how good Nabers looked in Giant’s Training Camp, and the relationship between Jones and Nabers is only getting stronger and stronger. Look for Jones to continue peppering Nabers (30 targets in the past two weeks!) and for Nabers to continue finding the endzone as the Giants continue to suck and fight from behind.
1.05 RASHEE RICE, WR KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Now it’s time for the most significant jump from preseason to Week 4 fantasy football drafts: Rashee Rice. If you follow our editor CJay on Twitter, you will know that, according to him, Patrick Mahomes has turned into a check-down merchant. Although this may be a bit of an over-exaggeration… numbers don’t lie.
The good news? One person is profiting off all of those check-downs and slants. That man is Rashee Rice. The downfall of Travis Kelce, the usage of rookie WR Xavier Worthy, and the injury of Isaiah Pacheco all help point to the emergence of Rashee Rice as a top 3 WR ROS.
I have him above other top receivers like Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase because of his high floor. In his past nine regular-season games, he has only finished with less than 10 PPR points on one occasion, something Chase has done twice this season. If we were to redraft right now, I would draft Rice at the 1.05 so fast it would make his dangerous driving record look like a simple citation.
There are fantasy owners out there who drafted Tee Higgins a few selections before Rashee Rice in 2024. To those people, I hope you have a good psychiatrist and decent insurance to cover it.
1.06 BIJAN ROBINSON, RB ATLANTA FALCONS
The third RB off the board is currently RB16 in .5 PPR. A little crazy, I know, but I can’t get away from the usage of Bijan Robinson! In weeks 1-3, he saw the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs, three incredibly tough matchups, especially under a new offensive coordinator. In those games, he still showed a lot of upside and potential for a breakout.
I am a sucker for bell cow running backs, and seeing Tyler Allgeier being tossed onto the bench for 80%~ of snaps has me buying into the prospects of Bijan Robinson moving forward. The more Kirk Cousins starts to look like his former self, the more opportunities there will be for Robinson. As Wolf mentioned before the season began, we are seeing OC Zac Robinson merging the run and pass games, which have been an incredible success in the Shanahan/McVay scheme he runs.
1.07 NICO COLLINS, WR HOUSTON TEXANS
Heading into the season, one of the biggest questions was how the pecking order would look for the Texans’ wide receiver corps. There are still some questions about WR2 and WR3, but there is no question about who WR1 is: Nico Collins.
After breaking out last season alongside C.J. Stroud, Collins is showing no signs of slowing down. While some were worried about Stefon Diggs acquisition, it’s evident that Stroud is happy to lean on Collins. Nico Collins leads the WR room in snaps, targets, and yardage (by a wide margin) and has shown no signs of slowing down. In his last 10 full-played regular season games, he has never finished with less than 12.6 points and is averaging 20.7 points per game. Expect Collins to be a weekly “boom” in your starting lineup, especially if Tank Dell misses any time.
1.08 MARVIN HARRISON JR, WR ARIZONA CARDINALS
Two rookies in the top 10 because I am a sucker for upside. I’ll be honest: after Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Week 1 performance and Kyler Murray saying it is not “his job” to feed Harrison Jr. targets… things weren’t looking great.
Fast forward two weeks, and 194 yards and three targets inside the 10-yard line later, I’m back! As I said in my “How to Draft from Pick 11 in 2024” column, I think 2024 was the last time drafters could select Harrison outside the first round. In weeks 2 and 3, only three players had over 300 air yards: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze.
The most impressive quality I have found while watching Marvin Harrison Jr. (which I highly recommend; the Cardinals are a fun team to watch) is his ability to get open with micro-movements. It is not his speed or physicality; it’s how he moves his body in the slightest way to get open.
Very few people thought that Marvin Harrison Jr. would be worth his draft value in 2024 fantasy drafts. Still, I am here to tell you that I am doubling down and taking him even earlier.
1.09 CEEDEE LAMB, WR DALLAS COWBOYS
Once everyone stops throwing their furniture, let’s talk about this like adults.
Okay, everyone. Are we good? Good. CeeDee Lamb is a generational talent and will be a top-five receiver for the foreseeable future, but something is just not right with the Cowboys.
Over the first three weeks of the season, CeeDee has finished the weeks with 11.1 points, 17 points, and 6.7 points. It’s not bad, but it’s also super scary for a player you spent the third overall pick on.
In his last 14 regular season games, his 2024 Week 1 point total scored the second lowest, only behind his 2024 Week 3 finish. He was only targeted seven times for four receptions over the past two weeks, which was very unlike his 2023 campaign.
I still believe in the player and think they will turn the season around, but it would be impossible to say that he has been worth his draft capital thus far. The 1.09 is the highest that I would reach for Lamb as of right now.
1.10 AMON-RA ST. BROWN, WR DETROIT LIONS
Speaking of a player that worried fantasy owners in week 1, Amon-Ra St.Brown stays within single-digit picks in the 2024 fantasy redraft and gets picked in the same position he was in the actual fantasy draft. St. Brown has delivered on all the hype and enters his fourth season as Jared Goff’s security blanket. The emergence of Jameson Williams(current WR20) is a welcomed sight in many ways as it leads to safety help being needed on other parts of the field.
The Lions continue to amaze onlookers by doing things their own way, including fake punts and incredible hooks and ladders.
This draft pick could be more exciting, so I will stop here. We all thought St. Brown would be great; he is excellent and will continue to be great.
1.11 ALVIN KAMARA, RB NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The preseason RB17 finds himself as the RB4 off the board in the 2024 redraft. Alvin Kamara and the Saints may be tied with the Bengals as the most surprising starts to the season for entirely opposite reasons.
Running backs like Rachaad White, Travis Etienne Jr., and Jahmyr Gibbs were all taken well before Kamara due to worries about the Saints team and Kamara’s age. Fast forward three weeks, and we see the 29-year-old Alvin Kamara as the RB2, averaging 25.6 points per game in .5 PPR scoring.
An impressive part of this early run is that the lowest total he has so far is 14.2 fantasy points, something only one player between RB3-RB9 can say. Fantasy owners that took him in round 4 found great value, and I would be happy to take him at the end of the first round if I were redrafting.
1.12 JA’MARR CHASE, WR CINCINNATI BENGALS
I’ll be honest; I feel forced to pick Ja’Marr Chase here. But I don’t know if I would do it if I were on the clock. Chase is coming off a great Week 3 as he found the endzone twice and finished with 118 receiving yards for a total of 26.8 FFP.
In prior weeks, he and Joe Burrow seemed on separate pages as they looked for rhythm in their offense. The Bengals are now 0-3 after facing two of the top three picks in the 2024 NFL draft (aka two of the worst teams from last year) and will be hoping to get right against the worst team in the NFL in 2023—the Carolina Panthers.
This draft pick is pure upside. I hope Tee Higgins’ insertion will help the Bengals go on a run as they did in 2021 when Chase played an integral role in turning around their season. If this week goes bad, give me De’Von Achane over Chase at 1.12.
On the outside looking in: De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Tyreek Hill, Josh Allen, James Cook
