Raheem Mostert (chest) has been ruled out for the Thursday Night Football matchup versus the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane is a “game-time” decision with an ankle injury. The door to volume inside the most fantasy-friendly has swung wide open.
Jaylen Wright (22% rostered) and Jeff Wilson (4% rostered) become fantasy football Must Adds in light of this news. If you’re already down at RB, both could be viable Week 2 Fantasy streamers even if Achane plays. Should Achane also sit, Wright or Wilson could be must-starts.
But who should you prioritize between Jaylen Wright vs. Jeff Wilson? Can you start either RB on TNF?
Let’s dive in.
The Value of the Miami Dolphins Backfield
In 2023, Mostert (RB3) and Achane (RB4) finished Top-5 in FPPG in 2023. Indeed, both players have special speed, but the Dolphins’ backfield is the PERFECT spot to maximize it. Per game, Miami averaged 137.5 rush yards (5th) & 1.5 rush TDs (3rd), and almost 30 total-RB FPs last season. ABSURD!
Mike McDaniels was previously Kyle Shanahan‘s run-game coordinator. Anyone who watches football knows Shanahan and McDaniels are the architects of the most gorgeous zone-blocking scheme in the game, carrying on Mike Shanahan‘s legacy with pride.
In a nutshell, the zone scheme is all about athletic linemen, moving in unison, to areas or “zones” on the field. When done well, this opens up enormous lanes, whether with the flow of the play, or via “cutback” opportunities against the grain if the defense overpursues.
When these lanes open up, backs with strong acceleration will knife through defenses, gashing them for huge gains routinely. This is especially true in the outside-zone game, when a back with speed is off to the races before the defense knows what hit them.
Beyond the beautiful run game, McDaniels also thrives at using his backs in the passing game. He dials up beautiful screens, getting his backs in space with blockers. McDaniels also utilizes wheel routes and more creative concepts, too.
To illustrate how the run and pass game create space for the RBs, look no further than Achane’s NFL Debut, a 233, 4 TD monster:
The dominance was consistent, too. Between Mostert and Achane, the Dolphins produced at least one 20+ FP RB in 11-of-17 weeks.
Losing mauling guard Robert Hunt certainly hurts, but the whole thesis of this scheme is to elevate (and mask) lesser line-talents as it works as a unit.
If Jaylen Wright or Jeff Wilson are forced to start in Week 2 vs. the Bills, either would have a shot at 20+ points. But who should you prioritize on your Week 2 Waiver Wire?
Who is Jaylen Wright? Elite Explosion and Playmaking Ability
Jaylen Wright epitomizes speed and explosiveness, ranking in the 95th percentile or higher for 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score via PlayerProfiler. Wright graded out similarly highly within Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS), ranking 37th of 1903 RBs since 1987:
According to Austin Abbott, Wright timed faster in the first five yards of his 40-yard dash (15.16 mph) than De’Von Achane’s (14.94 mph)– any shocker the Dolphins came calling? That is absurdly fast acceleration.
Wright’s not just timed speed, either. The explosiveness absolutely pops on the tape and in games. A whopping 26% (30 total) of his rushes went for 10+ yards, while 19 runs went for 15+. He topped over 1,000 yards on just 137 carries–insane! This equated to a whopping 7.4 YPC, with an equally impressive 4.53 yards coming after contact.
Wright’s also highly capable, and likely untapped, as a pass-catcher, too. He only notched 22 receptions his senior year, but was a natural hands-catcher, and smooth route runner.
No, Wright’s not perfect. He had some fumbling issues, was indecisive on inside runs, and isn’t the best pass protector (although he had impressive flashes). He also leaves himself open for big hits with an upright running style.
Still, once he has a crease, Wright is gone. This is absolutely perfect, considering he’s a natural fit inside a Dolphins offense that specializes in creating space for their backs.
Wright looked like a natural this preseason, too. In Week 1, he took 10 carries for 55 yards and a TD. In his next action, Wright accrued 7 attempts, 36 rush yds (5.1 YPC) + 4 rec, 41 rec – 76 scrimmage yards on just 11 touches!
He is the far more exciting add here, and was my favorite Running Back Sleeper for 2024 Fantasy. Wright has Achane-levels of speed and upside, but is sturdier and may prove to be more durable. I take Jaylen Wright over Jeff Wilson 10/10 times, even if Wilson might play ahead of him early on.
Still, if you miss on Wright, Wilson brings a lot to the table, too.
Jeff Wilson: Proven Production with Mike McDaniels
While I prefer Jaylen Wright, Jeff Wilson (4%) is much more widely available, and still a phenomenal add. In fact, Wilson may be the higher floor play and better-bet for immediate fantasy production.
Wilson has a proven track record with McDaniels, dating back to both of their days in San Francisco. McDaniels was the run-game coordinator for Wilson during his 2020-2021 seasons, and saw what the bruising back can bring to the table. As the starter, Wilson put up 21.9, 32, 27.4, and 23.8 FPs days in 2020. He missed most of 2021, but finished the season with 19.9 & 14.7 efforts once he was leaned upon.
In 2022, McDaniels then traded for Wilson as soon as he was available (once CMC was acquired. Wilson’s first two games:
- 12 touches (3 rec), 72 YFS, 1 TD – 16.2 FPs, RB8
- 19 touches (2 rec), 143 YFS, 1 TD – 22.3 FPs, RB7
He then posted 12.2 in roughly a half in his next game before getting hurt. From here, Wilson struggled to re-gain footing despite wrapping up the year with 11, 10.6, and 9.4 FPs.
Wilson was the lead back ahead of Mostert in 2022, and most expected this to be the case in 2023 until Wilson suffered a Training Camp injury. Had he stayed healthy, there’s a very real chance Wilson scores those 18+ TDs, and not Mostert.
Given Wright is still raw, Wilson may get the nod ahead of Wright early-on. Wilson was active ahead of Wright in Week 1, and actually was the Dolphins’ lead-rusher and most efficient ball-carrier. On just 5 carries, he racked up 26 yards (5.2 YPC), compared to 2.4 YPC for Achane and 1.5 for Mostert.
With experience and past-production on his side, Wilson is actually the safer bet for immediate production.
Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson Week 2 Fantasy Outlook:
Assuming only Mostert is out, I expect Wilson to be the more productive Week 2 RB between Wright vs. Wilson. He is currently ahead of Wright on the depth chart, has strong past production and experience with McDaniel, and fits the Mostert “big body back” role more seamlessly. Wilson is a bruiser and is a solid bet for yards and a potential score.
Yet, as just a pure stash, Wright is– by far–my preferred option. He brings so much more juice to the table, and is far more likely to emerge as a “league-winner.” In fact, I compared Wright to this year’s Achane this summer:
Shoot, Achane was even a healthy-scratch last year, just like Wright in 2024!
McDaniels has proven fully open to riding the hot hand. Wilson may get the first crack at filling in for Mostert, but once Wright gets his chance, I expect him to seize the job.
If Achane misses Week 2, both Wilson and Wright would be inside my Top-30 RBs in my Week 2 Fantasy Rankings. I’d expect Wilson to see 15-18 carries, with Wright mixing in for 10ish looks and a threat to pop a big one on any play.
If Achane plays, neither Wright nor Wilson are overly compelling streams this early in the season. Yet, while I’d expect Wilson to be the safer fantasy play in Week 2, I still lean Wright if you must choose one, as his season-long ceiling is so much higher, and could truly win leagues.
Plus, there’s a chance Mostert’s injury could linger:
If Mostert remains out multiple weeks, that will give Wright even more rope to show off the explosiveness he can bring to the table. He is certainly the long-term play here, even if Wilson is slightly better for one-week.
In summary, both Miami RBs should be rostered, but go Wright if you have the option. Drop your kicker if you have to for now, just get a piece of the most valuable backfield in fantasy and see how it unfolds.
