Throughout the fantasy season, you will read many articles discussing fantasy football value, sleepers, breakouts, and busts. Although all of these carry their own importance, the most critical factor to a successful fantasy season is when to buy into the hype.
In 2023, we heard of names like Tank Dell, De’Von Achane, and Kyren Williams to keep our eyes on and roster wherever possible. Heck, MOH even said, “If Achane can produce some explosive plays, he could easily carve out a larger role, especially on third down, and provide value throughout the season.”
At the same time, we heard of names like Marvin Mims, Van Jefferson, and Evan Hull. With my weekly “Hype Meter” article dropping every Tuesday, I will help you navigate through the hellscape we call the fantasy world. Use this meter as a tool alongside our weekly waiver wire articles (Jimbo already has one ready for this week’s stashes) and trade value chart produced by MOH to make the moves needed to win the championship.
Although we have yet to see an NFL regular-season snap, we can still discuss the hype built over the offseason for specific players.
We have two gauges of measure to categorize the level of hype behind a player. One will be our Patent Pending (not really; if we had lawyers, they would be upset about this joke) RSJ Hype Meter.
With this meter, we will elevate the levels of hype behind a player. Some weeks, the hype will be green, meaning there is little push behind a player. Some weeks, the hype will be red, meaning everyone buys in. In other weeks, it will be somewhere in between.
“But Kevin,” you may be saying. “You pointed out that hype is not always a good thing, so how will we know if we should buy in?” That’s a fantastic question made up by a person in my head! The answer is in the Credibility score.
This score will be out of 100: 100, meaning you can believe everything you hear about the player and should try to set them up with your sister. 50 should be considered the “average,” where the hype is understandable but insignificant. And 0 equals zero.
Let’s chat about some of the most enormous hype trains during the offseason and where they stack up this season.
BLAKE CORUM (LAR-RB)
Suppose you’ve lived anywhere other than under a rock this offseason. In that case, you haven’t been able to get away from hearing about the emergence of Blake Corum. The rookie RB from Michigan is coming off of a college career that even had THE Ohio State University diehard CJay raving about his opportunity with the Rams. This hype grew over the past week when Kyren Williams was slotted as the punt returner by HC Sean McVay.
Kyren’s fantasy stock dropped, Corum shot up many boards (even finding himself in the top 100 picks), and the hype has inflated ever since. The credibility of this hype, however, is unfounded. Although a solid handcuff, many pieces need to fall into place before Corum sees meaningful snaps in an NFL game. And the argument about Williams’ role being in jeopardy because he may be playing on the punt team? I see that and raise you that Corum has been named the primary Kick Returner for the Los Angeles Rams.
Don’t buy the hype, and don’t buy the payer. Let his hype meter drop into the light green, and buy him for a discount as a “throw-in” on a trade.
CALVIN RIDLEY (TEN-WR)
Calvin Ridley is a perennial “but do you remember” player whose hype grows with every day we do not see him play a snap. Fresh off of signing a four-year, $92 million deal, folks quickly called for a Levis-Ridley connection to be established, leading to fantasy success.
To push up the hype, we also got the news that the corpse of the once-great DeAndre Hopkins could be sidelined into the NFL season. This news even further inflated the hype, where The Fantasy Footballers, of my favorite podcasts (aside from the Fantasy Fullback Dive, of course), had Andy go on record and called Calvin Ridley a “My Guy” for the 2024 season! What are we talking about?
Ridley did a dance last year that cannot be reflected in his WR17 finish at the end of last year. Nearly every time you felt comfortable starting him, he would let you down. He would explode almost every time you went into Sunday, happy that you decided to finally bench him.
Most of the excuses for these inconsistencies were that Ridley was new to the Jaguars and that it would take time for him and Trevor Lawrence to mesh and be on the same page, even after training camp reports of a connection that would set the league on fire. Now you have the same situation, but even worse, you have Will Levis at quarterback instead of Lawrence.
Ridley has a decent ADP at WR34. However, in the same realm, you could choose Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, and Xavier Worthy around the same spot. Please give me any of them over the hype of Calvin Ridley.
COOPER KUPP (LAR-WR)
Here is a nice little “uno reverse” card for you, a double-negative if you will, so hold on for the ride. Cooper Kupp is coming off of one of his worst seasons yet, posting a six-year low in receptions and yards and entering the 2024 season as a 31-year-old wide receiver battling for targets with Puka Nacua. However, the wolves here at RSJ are not buying into the negative hype. The Credibility Score of 19 is so low due to its inaccurate portrayal of what the 2024 season of Kupp looks like. As CJay wrote last month, Kupp has the opportunity to provide WR2/starter output, which is an excellent return at his current ADP.
Having gunslinger Matthew Stafford entering the season finally healthy will be the difference for Kupp this year.
In the 75% of games that Kupp played last season, he was targeted seven or more times, something WRs like Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Drake London, and Jaylen Waddle couldn’t claim.
Work against the negative hype and buy at the perfect time.
GARRETT WILSON (NYJ-WR)
Garrett Wilson enters the season as the WR7 off draft boards around the Round 1-2 turn. Even Wolf has him slated as a first-round pick, along with his WR7. The third-year wide receiver looks to finally be on the receiving end of a pass thrown by a quarterback not named Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Trevor Siemian, or Tim Boyle.
The good news? He has a hall-of-famer who hasn’t had a QBR less than 90 since 2006 and consistently eclipses 4000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. The bad news? That same quarterback is a 40-year-old conspiracy theory-peddling, Ayahuasca-addicted weirdo coming off a torn Achilles.
Now, can Wilson have a third-year jump with Rogers as a quarterback? Sure. But we would be asking for Wilson to do something he has not been able to do in the first two seasons of his career—be consistently good. I understand it is hard to hold his performances against him with the above names throwing him the ball. Still, he has been the consistent security blanket for these quarterbacks, which has given him a fair share of the targets.
Last season, Garrett posted a line of 95-1,042-3 on 168 targets. That is right, 168 targets, the fourth highest in the league. In that same season, he posted a top-10 finish once.
This is not to say that Garrett Wilson will not have a good 2024 season, but instead, to make you aware of his current value because of his hype expectations. The New York Jets start the first two games of the season against the 49ers’ second-ranked secondary and the lone bright spot of the Patriots. If the Jets start slow, capitalize on the crash of hype for Garrett Wilson.
MARVIN HARRISON JR. (ARI-WR)
Finally, some hype worth buying into. The first-year wide receiver goes into a position where he has a team ready to take a leap and in real need of a target hog for the team. As I stated in my “How to Draft from Pick 11” article, I believe this will be the last time in the 2020s that you can draft Marvin Harrison Jr. outside of the first round. Harrison has the speed, physicality, and size to be able to take over the league and a quarterback that will be happy to get it to him.
PFF has him projected as a stud WR, projecting him with stats that would put him in the top 15 of both receptions and yards. The TD projection of 6 also seems low, as he was an absolute monster in the red zone at Ohio State.
If you’re reading this and you do not have Marvin Harrison Jr. on your team, it is probably too late. Congratulations to those who bought in on the hype.
