Fantasy football can be a straightforward game: draft talented players in prolific offenses, and your team is likely to succeed. However, identifying which offenses will be the league’s best isn’t always easy.
In 2023, the top-scoring offenses included the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, Ravens, and Lions—no real surprises there.
However, the actual advantage in fantasy football comes from pinpointing offenses that will surpass expectations. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans were prime examples. Overlooked by many, these teams became hotbeds for fantasy production.
One key factor behind offenses that exceed expectations is the injection of new talent. In Houston, this was CJ Stroud and Tank Dell. This factor was less significant in Tampa Bay, but Baker Mayfield certainly allowed his weapons to thrive.
An often-overlooked factor is the impact of playcaller changes. Bobby Slowik led Houston’s offense, while Dave Canales was Tampa Bay’s OC. Quality playcalling can dramatically boost offensive production and, in turn, fantasy output.
Coordinator changes can significantly impact an offense, yet they often fly under the radar. With 15 NFL teams featuring new play callers this season, which changes will significantly impact 2024 fantasy football?
ZAC ROBINSON: ATLANTA FALCONS
“The king is dead. Long live the king!”
King Arthur Smith is no longer in Atlanta to torment fantasy managers. After years of abusing the offensive talent on the Falcons’ roster, Smith is out. After serving as the Rams’ passing game coordinator, Zac Robinson now holds the reigns to the Atlanta offense.
We can expect to see a shift in Atlanta’s offensive philosophy. In 2023, the Falcons ranked:
- 32nd in pass rate over expectation (PROE)
- 31st in early down pass rate (neutral situation)
- 22nd in passing yards per game
- 32nd in 3WR set rate
In 2023, the Rams ranked:
- 21st in PROE
- 19th in early down pass rate (neutral situation)
- 10th in passing yards per game
- 1st in 3WR set rate
Although the Rams were not among the most pass-happy schemes, their offense was a far cry from Smith’s archaic one.
Expect to see a modern NFL offense that effectively utilizes the weapons Atlanta has heavily invested in. The market has already baked in these changes to a degree. Bijan Robinson is drafted as the RB2, Drake London as the WR10, and Kyle Pitts as the TE6.
With new-found competence at OC and QB, buying the prices on the new Atlanta offense is intriguing, especially with Robinson and Pitts.
BRIAN CALLAHAN: TENNESSEE TITANS
Speaking of a king leaving their kingdom, Derrick Henry’s time in Tennessee has ended. Along with Henry’s departure in free agency, the Titans parted ways with long-time head coach Mike Vrabel. The Titans replaced Vrabel with Brian Callahan, the Bengals’ former offensive coordinator.
Tennessee’s transition from a run-heavy to a pass-happy scheme may be of the same significance as the Falcons.
In 2023, the Titans ranked:
- 30th in PROE
- 17th in early down pass rate (neutral situation)
- 29th in passing yards per game
- 27th in 3WR set rate
Last season, the Bengals ranked:
- 2nd in PROE
- 4th in early down pass rate (neutral situation)
- 15th in passing yards per game
- 3rd in 3WR set rate
It makes sense that an offense that featured Derrick Henry and limited receiving threats would focus on the running game. But in 2024, this offense will funnel through the Titans’ pass catchers. DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd will be on the field often and featured heavily.
The Titans’ success will depend on Will Levis’ play. Although he certainly has red flags that could hold this offense back, the offensive scheme and Levis’ “chuck it” mentality should create an environment that allows pass catchers to thrive.
KELLEN MOORE: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last season, I was incredibly bullish on the Chargers’ passing attack with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator. However, with Mike Williams missing nearly the whole season, Keenan Allen missing significant time, and Quentin Johnston being a flat-out bust, the offense struggled to produce.
Kellen Moore has now moved to Philadelphia to run the Eagles’ offense. Once again, I am incredibly bullish on the passing offense that Moore will coordinate.
Moore has been a fantasy godsend for his offense’s top receiver. He effectively utilizes pre-snap motion to get easy “layup” targets for his receivers. This thread from Jacob Gibbs does a phenomenal job of laying out what Moore can do for a receiver’s fantasy production.
Aside from scheming up easy receptions, Moore’s offenses have generally been effective. In three full seasons with Dak Prescott (Prescott injury in 2020), the Cowboys ranked 6th, 1st, and 4th in scoring offense and 1st, 1st, and 11th in total offense (yards gained) during these seasons.
Last season, the Eagles had issues with predictable playcalling and a stale offense that stalled out late in the year. With Kellen Moore in town, the Eagles shouldn’t have these issues, and I expect them to be one of the league’s most dominant offenses.
AJ Brown is currently one of my favorite targets at the end of Round 1. He has already proven dominant and consistent with two straight seasons of 1400+ yards. He was on a game-breaking pace to start the year (125+ yards in Weeks 3-8) in 2023 before the offense slowed down dramatically. In Moore’s offense, a WR1 season is very much a realistic outcome.
