Last season was rather disappointing for the Los Angeles Chargers. This was especially true on the offensive side of the ball. An offense highlighted by veterans Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler failed to live up to expectations. This can be attributed to a slew of injuries, among other factors, but that’s beside the point.
Quentin Johnston, the Chargers’ first-round draft pick and a standout at TCU who led his team to the College Football Playoff national title game, was expected to be the young star of the offense. However, like the rest of the Chargers’ offense, he fell short of high fantasy football expectations, leading some to label him a bust.
With a wide-open target totem pole and a boost from Chargers GM Joe Hortiz, are you buying or selling Quentin Johnston in 2024 fantasy football?
JOHNSTON’S ROOKIE SEASON: FORGETTABLE OR MEMORABLE?
The TCU product was not expected to do much right away, as he was clearly slotted in behind Allen and Williams. Yet, fantasy analysts expected him to have some impact as he was a member of a Los Angeles offense that was projected to be one of the league’s best.
No matter how you look at it, Johnston failed to meet expectations.
In 17 games played, QJ finished with 38 receptions, 431 yards, and two trips to the endzone. This stat line is not out of the ordinary for a rookie season. However, considering that Johnston was a Round 1 selection, Mike Williams only appeared in three games, and Johnston assumed a full-time role after Week 8, this production is truly horrifying.
His peripheral metrics paint a similar picture. Matt Harmon, known for his work charting wide receiver performance, profiled Johnston as one of the worst receivers in the league last season.
There’s no other way to put it… Johnston was simply awful in 2023. This is the type of profile that receivers don’t recover from. Davante Adams is the only receiver to have a Reception Perception profile of this quality and go on to have sustained fantasy success.
Johnston’s rookie season proved to be memorable… for all of the wrong reasons.
QUENTIN JOHNSTON 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK
Both the film and analytics suggest that Johnston will struggle to succeed in the future. However, Chargers GM Joe Hortiz seems to believe the future is bright for their young receiver.
Should we believe in Hortiz’s analysis, or is this a case of a GM trying to defend a failed draft pick? The latter seems much more likely in this case.
Sure, there is a chance that Johnston has a bounce-back season to help the Chargers. But from a fantasy perspective, there doesn’t seem to be a path to relevance.
First, we look to Johnston as a talent. His tape from TCU was enough for him to draw Round 1 draft capital. Yet, his rookie campaign was poor enough to question whether Johnston could even be a WR2 or WR3 in the NFL.
As our Fantasy Stock Formula highlights, another key component to fantasy success is the offensive environment. The Chargers’ offense is set to look a lot different in 2023. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are no longer in the picture, and head coach Jim Harbaugh does not seem interested in operating a fantasy-friendly offense.
After drafting Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt with the 5th overall pick, Harbaugh had the following to say when asked about offensive weapons: “I know the question is gonna come up about weapons… we look at offensive lineman as weapons.” If this doesn’t tell you about what kind of offense Harbaugh will be running this season, I’m not sure what will.
It’s very tough to paint a picture where Johnston has fantasy success in 2024. The Wolf agrees, ranking him 172 on his 2024 Rankings and Big Board, 17 spots behind ECR.
