Trevor Lawrence 2024 Fantasy Outlook: Buy the ADP Dip After an Inconsistent 2023 Season

Give Trevor Lawrence another shot in 2024.

Trevor Lawrence has become a hot topic in the NFL community, especially among fantasy football managers. Just a week ago, Lawrence inked a five-year extension with the Jacksonville Jaguars, securing his place as one of the highest-paid players in the league, tied with Joe Burrow in terms of average annual value (AAV).

This lucrative deal has sparked debates about Lawrence’s value and potential on the field. While opinions on his contract may vary, we focus on what fantasy football players can expect from Lawrence in the 2024 season.

Will he be in for a bounceback after an up-and-down season, or should he be avoided in 2024 drafts? Let’s dive into Trevor Lawrence’s 2024 fantasy outlook to help you make the best decision for your fantasy team.

LOOKING BACK TO ROOKIE AND SOPHOMORE SEASONS

Trevor Lawrence entered the league in 2021. Like many first-overall picks, he was set up for failure in his rookie season at every level. His top targets at receiver were Marvin Jones and Leviska Shenault Jr. It should come as a shock to no one that the Jag’s passing attack was anything but a threat in 2021.

Unfortunately, Lawrence was also stuck with Urban Meyer as his head coach. After a prolific career as a college head coach, Meyer transitioned to the NFL for the first time in his career. This experiment lasted just 13 games after the Jags started the season 2-11. It wouldn’t be until much later that everyone realized how much of a liability Meyer was as the leader of this team.

In preparation for a Week 13 game against the Rams, Meyer was just being made aware of who Aaron Donald was.

Based on this comment alone, I think it is fair to essentially look past Lawrence’s rookie season. This season was bound to be a disaster regardless of what Lawrence could do on the field.

Moving forward to his second NFL season, the Jaguars realized changes needed to come immediately. They brought in a real NFL coach in Doug Pederson, made multiple savvy signings (Evan Engram and Christian Kirk) in free agency, and benefitted from the return of Travis Etienne.

This is where we saw the Jaguars start to take form as we now know them. The offense was top-ten across the board. They ranked 10th in total offense, passing offense, and scoring offense.

Lawrence had a “mini breakout” in 2022, finishing as the QB8 overall and the per-game QB12. While not yet among the fantasy elites, Lawrence seemed to be on that trajectory.

TREVOR LAWRENCE’S 2023 FANTASY PERFORMANCE

Following a promising sophomore campaign, the fantasy community was ready to jump all over a full-blown breakout in his third season.

More people boarded the hype train after the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley. T-Law finally had his true alpha WR, and plenty of people were willing to bet that he would make another step as a quarterback. He came off the board in Round 5 in drafts last summer as the QB8.

If you watched the Jaguars at all last season, you likely recall that it was a rollercoaster season that lacked offensive consistency.

Ultimately, Lawrence finished the year at the QB13 overall and on a per-game basis.

However, he did show the capability to be an upper-tier fantasy QB.  From Week 11-18, Lawrence was QB5 in fantasy. In this stretch, he averaged 271 passing yards and 1.7 TDs per game.

But what happened throughout the season (particularly early in the year) that kept Lawrence from delivering high-end fantasy production consistently?

If you have been paying attention to the discourse surrounding his new contact, you have likely seen that Lawrence was one of last season’s big “what if” QBs.

First, we have a string of “near miss” touchdowns.

As some people have correctly pointed out, some of these plays would have required highlight reel catches to be TDs. This is true, and expecting each catch to be made in bounds is unreasonable. However, these are NFL-caliber receivers. If anyone is converting on these plays, it’s these guys. Lawrence was just ten fantasy points away from finishing as the QB9. If a few of these plays swing in his favor, we may be talking about him in a different light.

The other point often discussed surrounds Lawrence’s production being hampered by drops from his receivers.

Lawrence has the worst drop rate of any quarterback in the last three seasons. As this graphic shows, these drops have been incredibly impactful.

Aside from the “what if” narrative, Lawrence battled through some brutal injuries last season.

The unfortunate part is that these injuries started to pile up right when Lawrence was starting to hit his stride. He scored 20+ points in four straight games (Weeks 11-14) but failed to clear this 20-point threshold in his final three games.

This is all to say that there are several ways we can account for last season’s middling production. Personally, I am buying into it. With a reduced price and quality offensive cast in Jacksonville, I’ll be drafting Trevor Lawrence once again in 2024.

TREVOR LAWRENCE 2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK

As is the case with every player in fantasy football, our interest in the player comes down to the draft capital required to roster them. We are getting a steep discount with Lawrence in 2024. His ADP has him drafted as the QB14.

This price drop is clearly a response to people resigning themselves to the fact that Lawrence is an average fantasy quarterback. I am not ready to accept that. I believe that Lawrence has the talent to lead an elite offense and be a high-end fantasy quarterback, and he certainly has the offensive weapons to do so.

Nothing is significantly different about the talent pool in the Jag’s offense this season. Calvin Ridley left for the Titans, but I believe this departure was properly addressed by adding Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft and Gabe Davis in free agency. Plus, reliable targets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will still be around to propel the passing attack. While they are looking to take work off his plate, Travis Etienne will be a key offensive piece, as well.

After seeing everything that occurred last season and still finishing as the QB13, I will be betting on one of this century’s most elite QB prospects again. Not to mention that Lawrence was the QB7 in expected fantasy points per game in 2023. We saw stretches of elite fantasy performances. Even if he doesn’t break into that elite tier, I am confident he is a good bet at QB14.

The Wolf slots Lawrence as his QB16 (+1 vs ECR) on his 2024 Fantasy Rankings and Big Board.

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