Should You Buy or Sell Jordan Addison in 2024 Fantasy Football?

Let someone else draft Jordan Addison in 2024.

The Minnesota Vikings selected former Pitt and USC wide receiver Jordan Addison in the first round of last year’s draft to complement Justin Jefferson and elevate their offense with a dynamic downfield option for Kirk Cousins.

On the surface, Addison’s rookie season appeared successful, finishing with 70 receptions, 911 yards, and ten touchdowns, making him the fantasy football WR23 (PPR). However, despite his strong fantasy performance as a rookie, I’m hesitant to draft Addison in 2024 fantasy football.

As we delve into the reasons for this hesitation, we’ll explore why I’m inclined to fade Jordan Addison, even when he’s available as the WR39 in the sixth round of 2024 fantasy football drafts.

JORDAN ADDISON IS A CLEAR TD REGRESSION CANDIDATE

The overall stat line never paints the whole picture for a player. But in this case, ten touchdowns on 70 receptions really jumps off the page.

Let’s see how Addison managed to amass ten touchdowns last season:

We can see that five touchdowns were 37+ yards in length. These five touchdowns accounted for 26 percent of Addison’s fantasy production last season!

Explosive touchdowns are incredibly difficult to reproduce, and Addison is a clear candidate for touchdown regression in 2024. The difficulty of reproducing explosive TDs is something I discussed with Davante Adams last offseason. While it was just one player, Adams was unable to replicate the big-play TDs he had in 2022, which negatively impacted his fantasy output in 2023. This can certainly be Addison in 2024.

Switching from Cousins and known reckless “chuck and hope” QB Nick Mullens to a combination of Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy will also hamper his ability to produce these splash plays as the team’s third receiving option once Hockenson is healthy.

Plus, he fell off significantly once Cousins went down for the season with an Achilles injury in Week 8.

JORDAN ADDISON’S ALL-AROUND FANTASY FOOTBALL INEFFICIENCY

Touchdowns clearly carried Addison to a WR23 finish last season. But as I previously mentioned, the overall stat lines of a player rarely paint the full picture of a player’s talent.

At the wide receiver position, we often look to metrics like yards per route run (YPRR), targets per route run (TPRR), and more. These metrics help us evaluate a receiver’s talent and ability to earn targets.

Unfortunately for Addison, many of these advanced metrics do not make him out to be a high-end receiver. In fact, they do just the opposite. Shoutout to Derek Brown for highlighting these a few weeks ago.

Among 81 WRs with 50+ targets, Addison ranked:

Addison’s TPRR of 0.19 was sandwiched between Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman. While it was just his rookie year, and there is room for improvement in coming years, these metrics are concerning, to say the least.

JORDAN ADDISON BENEFITED FROM A HOBBLED FANTASY ALPHA WR

Justin Jefferson, arguably the league’s best WR, missed an extended period of time last season with a hamstring injury. Jefferson missed seven contests, leaving Addison as the WR1 for nearly two months. He undoubtedly benefitted from Jefferson’s lack of competition.

Addison averaged nearly three additional points per game in games where Jefferson was not on the field. The 11.8 PPG that Addison averaged with Jefferson would have placed Addison at 40th in PPG if he maintained that production across the full season.

It goes without saying, Jefferson will be back in 2024 and will remain the clear fantasy football alpha in this offense.

Sure, Addison will benefit from a missing TJ Hockenson throughout the early portion of the season. However, we have already outlined Addison’s struggles as a target earner. With Jefferson on the field, the only production we should expect to get out of Addison is middling.

SUMMARY: JORDAN ADDISON 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK

Yes, Jordan Addison finished as a WR2 fantasy last season. But it’s pretty clear that this performance was propped up by touchdowns that will be nearly impossible to reproduce, as well as an injured Justin Jefferson.

In addition to a suspect WR2 performance, his peripheral metrics portray him as an average receiver at best.

Even with a price tag of WR39, the combination of inefficiency, the potential for touchdown regression, and the consistent presence of Jefferson are enough to scare me away from Addison. In this range, give me names like Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, George Kittle, Chris Godwin, and Brian Thomas Jr., just to name a few.

As of today, it appears The Wolf disagrees with my take, as Jordan Addison sits at WR34 (+6 vs ECR) on his 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings and Big Board.

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