After a quick siesta from the rigors of the fantasy football season, the NFL combine marks two things:
- A dream of spring (and not the George R.R. Martin A Song of Ice and Fire novel that might never be written)
- The fantasy itch starts to fester
As the temperatures and sunshine starts to rise, so do the energy levels of the otherwise catatonic content creators rising from a winter’s nap.
Many top-end stars of the upcoming NFL Draft, mainly Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, held out. This provided some of the future fantasy studs flying under the radar a chance to raise their 2024 dynasty rookie stock.
While underwhelming, some running backs turned heads at the combine, and others likely plunged themselves further down the NFL draft board and our 2024 Dynasty Rookie Rankings. So… whose stock is on the rise and whose is in recession?
DYNASTY ROOKIE RB RISERS
ISAAC GUERENDO
As a loyal supporter of Big Blue Nation, it pains me to praise someone from the little brother school in Kentucky. Still, the Louisville Cardinal’s blistering 40-yard dash showed scouts, GMs, and potential fantasy drafters alike that he should not have been an afterthought.
Fantasy savant Scott Barrett observed that, since 2000, Isaac Guerendo is the seventh-most athletic combine running back behind:
- Jonathan Stewart
- A.J. Dillon
- Derrick Henry
- Doug Martin
- Saquon Barkley
- LaDainian Tomlinson
Now, we’re not saying that means he is a lock to be a fantasy stud by any means. But in the right scheme, Guerendo could have a clear path to fantasy relevance.
The San Francisco 49ers have, in fact, met with him.
Allow me to wind the clocks backward to the misguided Trey Sermon hype after being picked in the third round. A slower, more contact-seeking running back like Sermon didn’t schematically make sense on paper as a fit for Shanahan’s golden zone-blocking scheme.
Elijah Mitchell, the sixth-round electrical back, was a perfect fit for what Shanahan likes out of his running backs. He was quick, shifty, and powerful enough to move the chains. Bringing the clocks back to the present, and Mitchell has spent as much time on the injury list as he has in pads. Christian McCaffrey isn’t getting any younger.
Given the size, speed, and athletic nature of Guerendo, he’s sure to attract suitors in the draft and has desirable traits teams would be willing to invest in. He’s safely one of the biggest risers post-combine.
JAYLEN WRIGHT
Really not a great day for me. First, I had to speak highly of a Louisville Cardinal, now a player who repped that disgusting Tennessee orange. Fantasy football has no place for prejudices such as these, so I must give credit where credit is due. Enough of my soapbox.
Standing around 5 feet, 11 inches, Jaylen Wright turned heads with his elite speed and burst (95th percentile) for his size. At 210 pounds, his 4.38 40-yard dash put him in the 98th percentile in the draft class.
Oh, and according to Austin Abbott, the first five yards of his 40-yard dash (15.16 mph) were faster than De’Von Achane’s (14.94 mph).
In other words, give him a hole and he’s off to the races, making him a constant house-call threat.
Wright steadily improved in Tennessee’s spread-tempo offense. His YPC grew from 4.81 to 5.99 to 7.39 from his freshman to his junior season.
In his freshman and sophomore seasons, Wright caught a combined eight receptions. In his junior year, he caught 22 passes.
While not asked to catch the ball much, Wright has shown a natural ability to catch passes and run more routes than he was asked to in college.
While his ability to trust his blocking and eyes is still a work in progress, his physical tools make him an NFL-caliber running back.
With only 398 touches through college, Wright doesn’t have a ton of tread on his tires. A Melvin Gordon-esque type of running back, if Wright can avoid a dreaded RBBC, he has a clear path to fantasy relevance early and should be rising up rookie rankings!
Other notable risers: Blake Corum, Mar’Shawn Lloyd
DYNASTY ROOKIE RB FALLERS
BRAELON ALLEN
Braelon Allen is a BIG BOY! At 6’1″ and 235 pounds, Allen looks like a runaway train that will force numerous NFL players to “make a business decision.”
Aside from being big and strong, Allen really doesn’t pop off the page much. The feeling around Allen is that people are trying to recapture the Derrick Henry experience. That’s just the thing… aside from being big and strong, Allen and Henry aren’t really all that similar. His lack of participation in some of the more prominent drills killed the hype he had coming in.
Allen avoided the 40-yard dash, where he had the opportunity to portray himself as a true size-speed freak like Henry. His 26 bench press reps won’t mask his sub-40th percentile vertical and broad jump performances.
In other words, instead of appearing to be a size-speed specimen that will make coaches salivate, Allen has painted himself as an unathletic, slow bruiser with little to no burst or ability to create in space.
He’s a landing spot-dependent running back ahead of the NFL Draft and is currently off my fantasy draft board.
BUCKY IRVING
He was a prospect that was certainly gaining some steam ahead of the combine. Bucky Irving had all of the wind let out of his sails following a disappointing athletic showing at the NFL combine.
While his 4.55 40-yard dash is not a killer by any stretch of the imagination, the 192-pound running back’s lack of speed and explosiveness left much to be desired.
That’s not to say there aren’t still things to like about Irving. His respectable 68th percentile 10-yard split showcases that he possesses good short-area burst. He was in the top three in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.38) across nearly 200 carries his last year at Oregon.
As to Irving’s most desirable trait, pass-catching, he’s clearly the belle of the ball. According to PFF, he was targeted as a receiver 18.5% of the time as a receiver at Oregon. It’s worth noting that he notched around 330 snaps as a receiver. He also caught 93.5% of the passes thrown his way.
While he’s still clearly the best pass-catching back in this class, Irving’s athletic showing likely makes him a landing-spot-dependent prospect.
Other notable fallers: Dillon Johnson, Audric Estime
