We’re changing some things up! In order to get you the best content and most timely insight we can, we’ve decided to split the weekly Expected Fantasy Points Chart into its own separate article. Going forward, you’ll be able to check out the stats as soon as they are available. You’ll still get the Buy-Low, Sell-High from me on Wednesdays, so you have some players to consider moving and shaking with.
With the standings starting to get more clear, I want to focus on Week 15 and beyond. At this point, if you are struggling to get a playoff spot, all of your focus should be on short-term, win-now moves. However, I am targeting players who’ll help those who are gearing up for a deep playoff run.
WEEK 10 BUY, LOW
The first of two Ravens I’m going to highlight today (the other is a sell). Zay Flowers has quietly been productive this season but he’s been overshadowed by other rookies like Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison. The biggest reason Flowers has gotten no love is probably the lack of touchdowns (1).
The bad news is that I don’t have any reason to believe that Flowers will suddenly go on a TD tear. He isn’t a big target, and Mark Andrews (and the running game) are the clear end zone options. However, there is something to be said for steady 12-15 point production from your WR3.
Now is the time to buy Flowers for several reasons:
- Zay is coming off of his worst two games by far with 11 and 19 yards respectively
- The Ravens play the Jaguars (#30 pass defense) and 49ers (#19 pass defense) in weeks 15 and 16
- All of the current hype is going to the Baltimore run game and Lamar Jackson
- The Ravens have a bye in week 13
Flowers is currently the leading target earner on the Ravens, with 24% of the target share — despite one target in Week 9.
Those week 15 and 16 games are against contending teams with good offenses. This leads to shootout potential. Week 17 isn’t as juicy of a defensive matchup, but it is the Dolphins, so yet another shootout is possible while the two teams battle for seeding.
Everybody this week is concerned with Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards and waving the MVP flag for Lamar. That means nobody is really focused on the sneaky value that Flowers represents.
Plus, I like taking advantage of the fact that the Ravens get a late week bye and should hopefully have more rest than their opponents (who both have a week 9 bye).
Adding this up– I like Zay Flowers to round back into his earlier form and provide consistent WR2/3 production. His owners may be tired of him not producing, and the cost should be low.
Marquise Brown has had a quietly good year. I’m sure it is mainly because he’s playing for the 1-8 Cardinals and because he’s inconsistent. He’s always a boom-or-bust guy and the opposite of the type of player I advocated for in Zay Flowers.
I think every team needs a good balance of risk and reliability. If I could acquire both Flowers and Brown and start them at WR3 and Flex, I’d be more than excited come playoff time.
Marquise hasn’t had above 50 yards in the past four weeks. That should create a buying opportunity for him. There are a few reasons for optimism that he’ll get back on the good side of 50 (especially for the playoffs).
- Marquise has Kyler Murray returning this week
- Marquise plays the 49ers (#19 pass defense), Bears (#28 pass defense) and Eagles (#29 pass defense) in weeks 15-17
- The Cardinals are on bye in Week 14
If this all sounds kind of familiar to Flowers, it should! This week, we’re going after top target earners in offenses that get weak pass defenses in the money weeks. Marquise and Zay both check off those boxes. These should both be recently rested players as well, based on bye weeks.
Remember, we aren’t worried about having the sexiest names in the playoffs, we’re worried about having the most production. If you can add a guy like Zay or Marquise to be your WR3/Flex lottery tickets and they go off, it should complement your studs and put you in a great spot.
WEEK 10 SELL-HIGH
This is the other Raven of the week. Gus Edwards’ outlook is not so strong, however. The hot name right now is Keaton Mitchell. I have not yet determined where I stand on Mitchell long-term, but I can definitely say that his presence should be a concern for all Gus owners.
I almost always side with the fresh legs regarding running backs in the NFL. Gus has been plodding along for years now, and Mitchell is fresh and new. I’m cautiously optimistic that Mitchell can provide a good complement to Gus. However, Ty’Son Williams reminds you of what can happen when you get too hyped for a Ravens RB too soon. Either way, this isn’t about Mitchell anyway.
Regardless of where you stand on Mitchell, it seems clear that the Ravens don’t want Gus carrying the full load. Gus was averaging about 15 carries per game over the past month prior to his five carries this week– when he still scored 17.2 PPR points! It was a blowout, it may not mean anything, but it still happened and needs to be considered.
There is no doubt that Gus will keep the goal-line back job. However, the current running narrative is that Gus is a touchdown machine. I want to pump the brakes on that narrative, though. Gus has seven TDs all year, six of them have been in the past three games. While that is impressive production, it also means that he only scored one TD in the previous six games despite reaching double-digit carries in five of them.
Gus is also not a great PPR guy because he doesn’t get targeted in the passing game. Outside of a fluky 80-yard catch and run a few weeks ago, he only has five other catches for a combined 27 yards this year.
The bottom line with Edwards is that he’s the same guy he has always been. He will have outbursts of TD production. Edwards will also have games where he just slowly moves along for 45 yards. He will have more of the latter than the former, and now he has competition for carries.
The cherry on top for Gus is that those playoff games we loved for Flowers are bad for the run. The Jaguars rank third this year against the run and the 49ers are fifth. I would not want to rely on Gus as my flex for those games.
Find an owner who is overrating Gus’s recent TD production and move on from him while you still can.
Calvin Ridley is the first player on my sell-high list who also appeared on my buy-low list. I advised you to buy him in Week 4. Frankly, it hasn’t really worked out with him being highly volatile and much more bust than boom.
I fear that more bust is also coming in some of the most critical weeks. In weeks 14-17, the Jaguars play the Browns, Ravens, Buccaneers, and Panthers. While the Bucs matchup is pure gold in week 16, the other matchups represent three of the top-five pass defenses in the league. It will be a rough month for the Jaguars receivers, and Ridley is the most likely to be hurt by it.
Ridley is currently coming off of a ten-target and 83-yard game (before this past week’s bye). That has been his best game since a 122-yard effort a month ago. It isn’t a ton to work with, but Ridley has name value and is coming from some reasonable production.
It’s possible you can hold on to Ridley until after week 12 (as he has matchups with Tennessee and Houston in weeks 11 and 12), and he may have increased value. However, most leagues’ trade deadlines are approaching, and your league may not allow trading after Thanksgiving.
I would not want to be stuck holding the bag with Ridley once playoffs roll around. For context, I would rather have Marquise Brown and Zay Flowers than Ridley from now on to give you some idea of what I would trade him for. Use his name to get the better playoff producers!