“Time continues making fools of us again.” — Albus Dumbledore
It feels unreal that it is week 7. After an offseason that took forever to crawl by, we’re flirting with the halfway point of both the NFL season and the fantasy season.
Mentalities switch as teams start gearing up for playoff pushes and shoring up injury-riddled rosters.
As the yearly bye-mageddon descends upon us, hitting on those crucial lineup decisions is vital.
So let’s get to it!
FAVORABLE WR MATCHUPS
Christian Watson vs. Patrick Surtain II (shadow)
This one is a bit of a flag plant. This is Christian Watson’s big moment to provide fantasy managers with that signature moment.
Surtain is not exactly locking his opponents down so far, allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route while in coverage and 0.36 per snap. More importantly, Denver’s defense has been open season for fantasy opponents. Under Vance Joseph, Denver ranks:
- 32nd in points scored
- 32nd in yards against
- 32nd in passing TDs against
- 32nd in rush yards against
Meanwhile, since returning from injury, the explosive Watson increased his Y/RR totals from 1.25 in week 4 to 3.14 in week 5.
Watson’s 19.8 aDot coincides perfectly with Jordan Love’s skillset. Love is 5th in the NFL in percentage of passes over 10 air yards downfield. In fact, 55% of Watson’s targets have traveled more than 10 air yards.
While Surtain is still a great cornerback, Watson’s utilization and Love’s propensity to press it downfield have me giving Watson two thumbs up this week.
Terry McLaurin vs. New York Giants
It’s been a wild, disappointing season for Terry McLaurin so far.
Currently ranking as the WR34 in PPR scoring, and only averaging 11.9 ppg, he’s yet to finish as a top-12 WR in a single week. In fact, he’s only finished inside the top 24 once, when he was featured against Philadelphia in week 4.
Sam Howell LOVES to sling the rock though. As Jahan Dotson continues to fade into oblivion, more work continues to open up for McLaurin. He’s put up more than 80 yards and seen more than 10 targets in two of his last three games, and faces a soft matchup against Adoree Jackson this week.
Jackson has allowed a catch on 70% of his targets and has been targeted on 32.8% of his coverage routes. In other words, teams have identified Jackson as the weak link in the Giants secondary.
Play McLaurin and wait for him and Howell to make a big play.
Other targets: Rashee Rice vs. Chargers, Drake London vs. Buccaneers
WR Matchups to Avoid
Courtland Sutton vs. Green Bay Packers
This might be about Courtland Sutton, but this is me taking a moment to throw away Jerry Jeudy, at least as a Broncos WR. This is clearly Sutton’s team until Sean Payton quits burying his head in the sand and utilizes Marvin Mims for a change.
While this may be Sutton’s receiving room for now, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been bad in his own right. He continues to be the overhyped DeVante Parker clone that 2019 fantasy managers can’t seem to let go of. Sutton has forced one missed tackle this season… one.
The whole offense is a dumpster fire and perhaps Payton is best served on TV and away from the sidelines. Is he really an improvement over Nathaniel Hackett? Can someone at least take away his clipboard?
Sutton’s aDot on the season is 10.7, and his yards/rec. is a whopping 11 flat. This means Sutton essentially catches the ball and falls down.
Green Bay’s secondary is finally healthy. A healthy dose of Rasul Douglas and Jaire Alexander means Sutton is not startable in 12-team leagues unless the bye week and injury bug force him into your lineup. In which case I recommend a box of tissues and a book of dad jokes to stop the tears.
George Pickens vs. Rams
Would you like the good news or the bad news?
Good news? Okay, deal. Diontae Johnson is back for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Bad news: Johnson is back, but still has Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada.
So you’re telling me that Pickens target share is probably going to take a hit? Pickett is still throwing the football (poorly)? Canada hasn’t been told to hit the bricks? Okay, that’s enough to make me want to sit Pickens as it is.
The matchup isn’t any better.
The Rams defense has allowed just one touchdown and the 4th-fewest points allowed to wide receivers. Not a single starting Rams defensive back has allowed more than 0.22 fantasy points per route in coverage.
While Pickens can bust a big play at any time, I’m not inclined to count on the Pickens, Pickett, Canada trio this week.
Other WRs to avoid: Michael Pittman Jr. vs Browns, Gabe Davis vs. Patriots
