Now, one month into the season, we’re starting to really separate teams into tiers.
We’re down to three unbeaten teams – Miami, San Francisco, and Philadelphia – all of whom deserve a tier together. But, they’re not all guaranteed to remain undefeated this weekend. We also slightly shiver when teams such as Chicago or Denver are brought up, and guess what? They play each other this weekend. Personally, I’m rooting for a tie.
I used to write a weekly Start Em, Sit Em with Sleepers and Busts at another publication, but I have brought my talents to RSJ and am revamping the launch of that series. Let’s be honest: do you really need to be told to sit Sam Howell following a four-interception game now going up against Philadelphia on the road? Or, to sit Mike Evans, who hasn’t solved cornerback Marshon Lattimore in nine years?
We’re looking for diamonds in the rough – and this week produces so many it’s hard to narrow down who has the edge.
Last week, Broncos running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, Ravens’ wideout Nelson Agholor, Falcons’ wide receiver Drake London, Rams’ quarterback Matthew Stafford, and Steelers’ running back Jaylen Warren made the list.
Obviously, our problem was picking players on teams with low-scoring games. Well, not you, Denver, but we won’t discuss it.
The good news? After struggling in Week 1, the Week 2 picks hit it out of the park, so Week 4 should be better.
MARVIN MIMS, WR DENVER BRONCOS
At Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. Eastern
Could you imagine if this game was in a primetime slot?? Usually, a 27 percent snap share would steer me clear of the player, but not in Week 4. Despite the 50-point loss, the Broncos’ Marvin Mims returned a kickoff for a touchdown and secured a receiving touchdown in Week 2.
Sunday’s game will either end 9-6 or a 45-45 tie since neither team should be adding to the win column. I’m over Jerry Jeudy’s injury and inconsistency problems, and who the hell is Brandon Johnson? Right now, Mims is the second-best receiver in Denver, behind Courtland Sutton, who has at least been consistent. Plus, Broncos beat writer Cecil Lammey hinted it may finally be Marvin Mims week in Chicago.
ADAM THIELEN, WR CAROLINA PANTHERS
vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. Eastern
This is the second week in a row that Minnesota will face a winless team such as themselves, with both teams searching for that first win. But who wins won’t matter to Adam Thielen’s production. Thielen has been on fire in any form of PPR for consecutive weeks, and he has an advantage facing his former team. While I don’t think there’s bad blood between Thielen and the Vikings, Thielen should know how to exploit his former teammates.
“Was I excited I get to play against Minnesota? Yeah, but I’m trying to treat it like it’s another football game,” Thielen said.
Thielen has 23 targets (18 catches) in the last two weeks while finding the end zone in both games. He should be able to take advantage of his old team, which has one of the most exploitable secondaries in the league.
DONALD PARHAM JR., TE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. Eastern
You’re happy if you’re in a tight end premium league and have been playing Donald Parham Jr. Through three weeks, he has only six catches, but three have come as touchdowns.
Boom or bust? Yes, but a majority of the non-Tier 1 tight ends are boom or bust. Plus, Gerald Everett is dealing with a form of illness as the Chargers head into Week 5 with a bye. While they just lost Mike Williams (ACL) for the year, another reliable receiving option would be optimal. But at less than 100 percent, Everett may not play as much as normal.
Parham Jr. played only four percent fewer snaps than Everett on Sunday, too, and with a keen 6-foot, 8-inch monster being looked for in the end zone, why not?
GENO SMITH, QB SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
At New York Giants, 8:15 p.m. Eastern on MNF
The Seahawks aren’t plagued by an early Sunday start time as they come across the country. While running back Kenneth Walker is a must-start, Geno Smith should also have a good game. If Arizona backup quarterback Josh Dobbs can score 27, then Smith certainly can put up points on the Giants’ defense.
The Giants’ offense will once again be wondering if Saquon Barkley will play, and if not, the Giants will again struggle to keep their offense on the field. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have the advantage over the Giants’ corners, and Smith will find them whether it’s short, intermediate, or downfield.
It’s not always runaway matchups that produce quality sleeper candidates every week. Remembering to think of teams chasing points, lopsided ground game and rush defenses, and depth chart movement are all key factors to look at when attempting to gain an edge in fantasy football.
JAMES COOK, RB BUFFALO BILLS
vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. Eastern
It’s painful as a Dolphins fan watching mediocre Bills running backs have career games season after season, but here we are again. Headlines such as “Devin Singletary shows out in monster Week X game” or “Run game aids Bills in a decisive win against Dolphins” are still haunting.
Cook is most certainly not a “sleeper” by the definition, but he’s a player who needs to be locked into lineups this week.
Miami’s run defense has improved since Week 1 against the Chargers, but the way in recent years that the Dolphins prepare only for Josh Allen’s arm has been the team’s largest downfall. Chunk yardage adds up quickly, and James Cook is the best Bills back. In PPR Cook is better, but even without finding the end zone, he’s still startable in all formats. He finds the end zone for the first time this week. Mark my words.
Reach out to me on Twitter at @oldbayqueen74 if you have any sit/start questions.
