Welcome to the Stat Vault, a place to review some of the most interesting stat blurbs from the week and the bigger picture they paint. Some of them you may not have heard yet, and some of them are plastered everywhere – with that being said, the point is to analyze what these stat blurbs mean for fantasy, not to learn a new fun fact. Each of these stat blurbs has more significant fantasy implications, so we’re here to pull them out of the vault, polish them up, and use them to our advantage.
THE TITANS’ OFFENSE
STAT: They have averaged only 240 yards per game with 15 points per game, both bottom-four in the NFL.
What this means:
In the nicest way possible, there may not be a single startable player on this Titans offense. Behind a terrible offensive line, they have been able to get nothing going to start this season. This was epitomized last week, where DeAndre Hopkins put up 7.8 points and Derrick Henry gave us a whopping 2 points. These are the only two players you can really consider starting on this offense, and even their spots are in jeopardy.
When it comes to Hopkins, he is likely still start-able at a flex spot, but he should have a tight leash. Owners should start spending more time on the waivers, looking at replacements, or looking for a trade partner.
When it comes to a Hopkins trade, the best play is probably to sell sooner rather than later. His name is his brand right now; many fans still see him as a WR2 and believe he will have a big bounce-back purely based on his past success. Selling him soon could net you a decent return before his reputation turns sour, becoming an old, washed receiver.
Whether he really is washed is up to question, but I foresee that narrative becoming much more popular as this offense continues to flounder.
The story is similar when it comes to Derrick Henry. He turns 30 this season and has not had the best of starts this year, especially to his standard. Henry, though, can still be started each week, at least finishing as a top-13 back the first two weeks (different from Hopkins, who has not had a week cracking the top-25 WRs).
Derrick Henry is encountering a problem he has not had since very early in his career – volume. Henry was out-snapped this week by Tyjae Spears . . . woah. He managed 25 carries in Week 2, but only 15 carries in Week 1 and 11 carries last week – not bad, but less than what we’re used to. Henry is very volume-driven now, so we must watch his touches closely.
Rather than selling Henry now, I recommend keeping him for a little longer – at least until his bye in three weeks. I still believe he has some big-game ability given the right game script. But, after that, I’d look to sell him high off his next big performance. I want no part of this Titans’ offense, and if a big week from Henry can get you a younger, more reliable rusher, I would take it.
Consensus: Get your fantasy stock out of the Titans’ offense. Sell Derrick Henry soon, but sell DeAndre Hopkins sooner.
KIRK COUSINS
STAT: Leads the league in passing yards (1,075) and passing touchdowns (9).
What this means:
Where other teams seem like you cannot even start their WR1, the Vikings are the opposite: it looks like even their third option is a viable starter.
Kirk Cousins and this Vikings offense have started the season on a tear, including all the fantasy options that come with it. If you limit their turnover problem, we’d likely speak about them historically regarding offensive numbers. Cousins is playing host to a top-three WR in Justin Jefferson, a top-3 TE in T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison as a viable flex option.
The first point, and maybe the most obvious, is to hold on to Jefferson and Hockenson. No trade under the sun – barring any tomfoolery – should entice you to get rid of those two players. Now that that’s out of the way, we can discuss some actions you can take regarding this team.
K.J. Osborn has not been much of a beneficiary of this success, with only seven catches in three games. If he gets phased out completely, Addison, as a pure WR2 in this offense, could make him an easy start every week. Keep an eye on him and his fantasy owner for a buy-low if he has a down week, or pick him up if you’re lucky enough to be in a league where he is on waivers.
On the other side of this stat blurb is somewhat of an explanation for these great numbers – a terrible running game. The Vikings average a mere 66.3 rushing yards per week, so they traded for former Rams RB Cam Akers. Following some major fumbling problems for starter Alexander Mattison, there is a good chance Akers will take over this backfield completely.
“That’s something we’re going to fix one way or another. Either guys are going to do it or we’re going to have to put other guys in the game that have ball security,” said Kevin O’Connell.
Two takeaways from this: after a solid week last week, you might want to capitalize on Mattison’s value right now. It is still pretty low, but if Akers does indeed get involved next week, it could drop to zero. Secondly, buying Akers low could be a great idea if you believe this idea. In this powerful offense, a running back getting volume should see success – at least more than we’ve seen.
Consensus: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson can do no wrong. Keep an eye on Addison, sell Alexander Mattison, and buy Cam Akers.
DOLPHINS’ HISTORIC DAY
Stat: The Dolphins scored 70 points against the Broncos, the most in a game since 1966.
What this means:
Let’s get all of the positives out of the way first. What a performance this team put out, from top to bottom. It would be a great idea to pick up De’Von Achane if he is not already rostered, and it is worth putting all of your FAAB on him if that is what it takes. Raheem Mostert was already a solid option but is now even more startable after seeing his potential. Tyreek Hill could finish as the WR1 overall, and Tua Tagovailoa is an MVP candidate.
Beyond all the hype, we must ensure we still use our heads. Firstly, De’Von Achane is not automatically a starter every week now that he is ranked as a top-5 RB in fantasy due to this outing. He should definitely be rostered and sometimes a flex starter, but we need more time to see what he can do each week.
Auto-starting him each week from here on out is not smart; he is a great piece for the rest of the season, but he won’t be doing this all the time. After all, this amount of scoring hasn’t happened in 57 years, and the points he put up have only been achieved 13 times this century.
Secondly, if you were looking at the box score or the fantasy rankings and happen to think guys like Chosen Anderson, Braxton Berrios, or Chris Brooks are worth a moment of your time. . . stop thinking that. Their production was based purely on the crazy amount of points the Dolphins put up, not anything to do with their talent or future success.
Lastly, when it comes to trading, shop Mostert just a bit. Pull the trigger if your league-mates are willing to give up a great player for him. With his age, injury history, and the performance of Achane, the best may not be in front of him.
Also, check up on Jaylen Waddle. This offense is electric, and he will return to his old ways as soon as he comes back from injury. Owners in your league may decrease his value based on his time out, which is a great time to pounce. Mostert and Waddle may not be worth looking into their trade value in more dedicated leagues, but it is worth a try.
Consensus: Grab anybody with any value in this powerful offense, but do not think this is happening again. . . ever.
RUNNING BACK VOLUME
Stat: Only 5 of the top-10 fantasy RBs are also top-10 in touches.
What this means:
The RBs who are top of the league in both points and touches are Tony Pollard, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, James Conner, and Kenneth Walker. These folks are getting the touches and producing with them – they’re not the ones we are thinking about.
Rather, the others who only fit one of the criteria are important to us. The players currently top-10 in touches but not points are:
- Derrick Henry (5th in touches, 18th in points)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (6th in touches, 14th in points)
- Josh Jacobs (7th in touches, 22nd in points)
- Zack Moss (9th in touches, 13th in points)
- James Cook (10th in touches, 12th in points)
Some of these guys’ differences are not very significant, like Zack Moss or James Cook, but the theory stands true – when predicting future success, volume is just as important as scoring, if not more important.
Now, a couple more players stand out in the category of underperforming thus far, considering their touches, such as:
- Dameon Pierce (16th in touches, 27th in points)
- Javonte Williams (18th in touches, 30th in points)
Here, I’ll add some nuance to these numbers and give my opinion on some players.
Rhamondre Stevenson has gotten the ball at least 18 times in the Patriots’ three games, but his points have not shown it. This is happening for a RB on a team that has been in only one possession games so far, where you might expect them to move away from giving a RB the ball. He is a player worth investing in.
Josh Jacobs is a great buy-low option based largely on Jimmy Garoppolo being so bad. He has thrown six interceptions in only three games, so for the Raiders, giving the ball to Jacobs has been one of their only options. Owners of Jacobs have likely been forced to start him each of these lackluster weeks he has had due to his draft stock, so they may be frustrated with his production and willing to send him out for cheaper than he deserves.
James Cook gets a significant amount of touches on a powerful offense, something I always look for in players. His points have not followed as closely because he gets taken out near the endzone and often vultured by Josh Allen or Latavius Murray. What he loses in touchdowns he nearly makes up for in targets, though, so his floor will always be decently high, and he could be a great player to check up on.
Dameon Pierce and Javonte Williams could be gotten for pretty cheap right now. They are taking up almost all of the carries in their backfield, but have not been able to punch in for big points yet. They are riskier options than the RBs stated above, but I still believe they carry some good value at a RB2 or flex spot.
More about volume with RBs and all other positions can be found on The Workload Report, with great information about buy-low and sell-highs to digest.
Consensus: Pay attention to volume. Check on Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Dameon Pierce, and Javonte Williams.
THE CLEVELAND BROWNS’ DEFENSE
Stat: They have allowed the least yards per game on defense with 163.7 – 89.3 yards less than 2nd place.
What this means:
Game-planning against defenses in fantasy for start/sit decisions takes a bit to shape as the season progresses. But, we can try to get ahead by looking at what defenses are becoming elite, and the Browns are taking the biggest jump from most analysts’ preseason thoughts. The Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and New England Patriots are the other teams in the top-5, but they were much more expected coming into the year.
The Browns and these other four teams should be avoided, but we need to look further to really know what teams are the best and worst matchups. Most fantasy sites list how good the matchup is and often allow for an automatic adjustment, but do not account for outside factors. For example, the Eagles look like a bottom-10 defense, mostly because they have faced three teams that are all top-half of the league in offense thus far.
Similarly, fantasy sites will tell you that the Broncos are easily the worst defense in the NFL after letting up 70 points and are the best matchup for any player. Still, their defense is closer to average if you ignore that absolute blow-up and shouldn’t necessarily be seen as the easiest matchup each week.
The Browns have played 3 bottom-10 offenses to start the season, so keep that in mind, and try to avoid them along with the other teams noted above. Those are teams we should start avoiding with our fringe starters: players that are starters on a week-to-week basis. This is how you take a step up in fantasy management. Your best players should start no matter what – a motto I use is “Start your Studs.” But when it comes to your flex, bench, and waiver guys, we should consider the team they play.
Consensus: Avoid the Browns, but don’t take your fantasy sites ‘matchup rating’ at the end-all-be-all.
