Two weeks have passed and fantasy football already feels broken.
Nico Collins is the WR7 on the season, while Ja’Marr Chase is the WR55. Some guy named River Cracraft has scored more fantasy points than Chase so far.
Nick Chubb is done for the year. The likes of Puka Nacua, Jerome Ford, and Kyren Williams are the belles of the ball off the waiver wire, and Kadarius Toney still stinks.
Okay, maybe the last one isn’t really all that surprising to those paying attention, but otherwise…
“While we may not be able to control all that happens to us, we can control what happens inside us.” — Benjamin Franklin
Chin up fantasy football fanatics! Whether you’re 2-0 or 0-2, week three is a brand new season and a brand new way to carpe omnia. +
Here are the wide receiver matchups to target and those to leave out of sight and out of mind!
FAVORABLE WR MATCHUPS
Jordan Addison vs. Los Angeles Chargers secondary
This game might have the offensive firepower to break fantasy matchups and friendships this week.
With an over/under at 54 points, this could turn into a high-scoring affair. Enter rookie Jordan Addison.
Remember how I mentioned above that fantasy football was broken? Well, Kirk Cousins is the QB1 in fantasy.
Ready for an insane stat? Minnesota has passed the ball on 74.6% of their plays so far this season.
The Los Angeles Chargers rank 32nd in passing yards given up and 25th in passing touchdowns. They don’t like to play defense.
Using PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Minnesota men in the trenches hold a 15% pass-blocking advantage. So Cousins is going to have plenty of time to operate in a nice clean pocket.
So why Addison in particular? Well, across two games it’s clear… Addison is really good at football… but the opportunity is there too.
Addison’s currently producing a staggering 2.79 Y/RR (7th) and has an average depth of target of 14.7 yards. So clearly, he’s just a big-play guy right? There isn’t enough volume to go around, and Justin Jefferson is clearly the alpha… right?
Nobody is going to argue that Jefferson isn’t the main man in the passing game, but Addison’s opportunity is JUICY! He’s seeing 24.1% of the team’s targets and nearly 30% of his targets are more than 20 yards down the field.
Volume? Check. Opportunity? Check. Favorable matchup? Ohhh yeah!
Tutu Atwell vs. Cincinnati Bengals secondary
Yeah, yeah. I know. People only care about Puka and Kyren on the Rams. The forgotten dynamos, like Atwell stay forgotten.
Not at the Roto Street Journal.
Atwell is the top-ranked slot receiver, according to PFF. Yes, you read that correctly… number one. Just wait, it gets better.
Standing 5’9″ and weighing 165 pounds, Atwell is tied for first in the league with a 100% contested catch rate and he leads the team in total routes run.
The Cincinnati Bengals do not have a lockdown corner, but Atwell will likely see a lot of Mike Hilton coverage. On the season, Hilton gives up an unimpressive 0.42 fantasy points per route in coverage, while Atwell averages 0.36 fantasy points per route.
While this Super Bowl rematch doesn’t offer quite the electrifying over/under that the Chargers/Vikings tussle does, if Joe Burrow gets the offense back on track, this game could turn into a tantalizing track meet.
Atwell needs to own those flex spots this week.
Honorable mention: DeVonta Smith vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Tyler Lockett vs. Carolina Panthers
WR MATCHUPS TO AVOID
Nico Collins vs. Jacksonville secondary
This week will be the litmus test to determine if Collins’ breakout is legitimate.
He faces a tough test with Tyson Campbell. Quarterbacks don’t target Campbell in coverage. Through two games, Campbell has been targeted on only 10.4% of his coverage routes and is allowing 0.14 fantasy points per route run.
Given the likely pass-happy game script, an overall lack of weapons, and a lackluster offensive line, CJ Stroud might have to pepper Collins and rookie Tank Dell with targets. The game script might allow Collins and his 0.57 fantasy points per route to be a viable PPR play. Just keep in mind that the Jaguars defense held Patrick Mahomes to only 17 points last week.
Food for thought.
Gabe Davis vs. Washington secondary
Bring. It. On!
I dare speak out against Daddy Davis, but I’m not drinking the same Kool-Aid.
Yes, he did just finish as a top-15 WR last week, but the following questions arise:
- Can you trust Davis to consistently produce?
- Will he outproduce his 0.30 fantasy points per route run number?
If you answered no or hesitated with any of those questions, just bench him. No one would blame you… He just finished the WR69 week one and has been a WR3 or worse in 65% of his games since last season.
Davis is likely going to see a full complement of coverage from Kendall Fuller, who has been nothing short of sensational to start the year. In fact, Fuller has only been thrown to on 9.5% of his coverage routes, which is the second-lowest mark in the league.
Only play Davis as a desperation flex play and hope he finds his way to paydirt.
Honorable mention: Romeo Doubs vs. New Orleans Saints, Jahan Dotson vs. Buffalo Bills