Who is your favorite late-round QB breakout candidate?
The Wolf
This surprises no one who listens to the pod, but Daniel Jones will have a Diet Josh Allen leap in 2023. He already was the QB9 with just 15 TDs, largely due to matching Josh Allen’s Konami upside on the ground. With Darren Waller + Jalin Hyatt + Parris Campbell added, plus Year 2 in Daboll’s system, the passing game totals could near-double in 2023. This already happened for Allen – he went from 3,089 yards & 20 paTDs (Year 1 w/ Daboll) to 4,536 yds & 37 paTDs in Year 2. Waller isn’t Diggs, and Jones isn’t Allen, but a bump to 4K yards and 25 TDs would’ve made Jones the QB4 in 2022. I think he could absolutely hit that ceiling in 2023.
Jackson
I would draft Kyler Murray late in almost any league, even if I drafted a top QB. Kyler has always been great for fantasy when on the field. He outscored Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points per game in 2021, and still had 19.4 PPG last season if you remove the game he tore his ACL in the first quarter. Drafting Kyler could make for a great trade chip later in the season or a high-upside piece for the fantasy playoffs.
ChaseMG
Daniel Jones seems to go just late enough in drafts to qualify here. I believe the Giants’ numbers as a team will catch up with how well they performed under Brian Daboll in 2022. Jones’ passing numbers last season is a floor; they could rise enough to put him in the top-6 discussion if this receiving core can stay healthy.
JimboSlice
Since Geno Smith and Daniel Jones already broke out, I’ll say Tua Tagovailoa. The only thing holding back Tua is his health and mashed potato brains. If he stays on the field, he has QB1 potential, thanks to his elite receiving duo.
Owen
Kenny Pickett, Kenny Pickett, Kenny Pickett. He is a very talented QB with an underrated receiving core – Pickens, Johnson, and Friermuth. I think his leap will surprise many people, including a surprising amount of wins.
Who is your favorite late-round RB breakout candidate?
The Wolf
The Dolphins’ offense projects to be Top-5 in 2023, and with Jeff Wilson out for the foreseeable future, Raheem Mostert could see 70% of the backfield work, at least early on. He is 31 years old, usually a graveyard for RBs, but Mostert only has 532 career scrimmage plays (not even touches)– his tread is far lighter than most. Mostert is still extremely explosive and has been a glove-like fit for McDaniels’ offense since their SF days. Given all the rumors around Dalvin Cook and JT, Mostert’s price has been severely depressed — and even as the clear feature back, the market has not corrected nearly enough to capture his upside & usability.
Jackson
This is really tough to predict because so much of it depends on injury, but I like Tank Bigsby this season. Based on preseason usage, the backfield already looks to be split between Travis Etienne and Bigsby, with nobody else playing significant snaps. Etienne is the clear starter, but if he goes down, Bigsby is good enough in the passing game and at the goal line to get a bellcow role. In deeper leagues, he also may be able to carve out enough of a role to be a fringe starter, especially late in the season.
ChaseMG
Injuries to Jeff Wilson and De’Von Achane to start the season have left the door open for Raheem Mostert to seize the opportunity and carry that momentum throughout the season. I’m guessing it won’t happen all season, but at this point in drafts, the RB position is a monopoly of playing what-if narratives.
JimboSlice
I still believe. I just can’t quit Clyde Edwards-Helaire after that rookie year Week 1 performance. McKinnon is old, Pacheco is good, but I’m not sure if he’s a true lead or every-down back. In this offense, the potential is very high for RBs, as we saw in his rookie year. However, the floor is also super low as we’ve seen, but we won’t discuss that.
Owen
In my Best Ball leagues, Tyjae Spears has been a player I keep drafting. As Derrick Henry gets older, it’s time for the Titans to lighten the load and involve other RBs. His burst and receiving ability will give him big upside, but even if Tennessee gives Henry a bell-cow role again, his catches in PPR should keep him solid. God forbid Henry isn’t healthy; he becomes an easy start with that weak QB room.
Who is your favorite late-round WR breakout candidate?
The Wolf
Yes, I’m as impressed with Zay Flowers as the next analyst. The kid’s a stud. Still, Odell Beckham Jr. has reportedly shown the best rapport with Lamar Jackson throughout camp. He’s now two full years removed from the ACL and looks in incredible shape according to all beats. He’s also just the gritty, passionate vet that Harbaugh probably LOVES.
The last time out there (2021). Beckham posted 10+ FPs in 9-of-11 games with the Rams (including playoffs), scoring a TD in 7 of those weeks. He seemed to be peaking at the right time, too, with a nine rec (11 tgt), 113 yd gem in the NFC Championship, and a two rec, 52-yard, 1 TD first drive to kick off the Super Bowl before suffering his ACL tear. He’s still, and always has been, #Good — and now he could be the WR1 for a burgeoning offense that could explode under Todd Monken’s watch… but goes in Rounds 9-10?! STEAL!
Jackson
Again, this isn’t really a breakout, but I would bet on Michael Thomas over other players around him. He did catch three touchdowns in three games, but Thomas was still a top 10 WR in points per game last year. He was also good when on the field. His 77.3 PFF grade, fell right between DK Metcalf and Christian Watson. Health is an obvious question mark, but Thomas is healthy now, and the risk is more than baked into his current ADP.
ChaseMG
Skyy Moore has gotten a year to get used to the complex Andy Reid offensive scheme and is now being utilized in two-WR sets. A shot being Mahomes’ alpha-WR, though still behind Kelce, is still valuable and worth seeking out
JimboSlice
Everyone’s talking about Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross. Give me Skyy Moore who now has a year under his belt and seems destined for the usual sophomore year receiver bump. Anyone tied to Patrick Mahomes gets a great bump to their upside. Nico Collins was a close second but I don’t think his ceiling is that high.
Owen
Smart leagues are drafting Romeo Doubs earlier, in the mid-rounds. But if you find yourself in a league where Doubs slides further into the late rounds, he is an easy pick. Jordan Love will be solid, and Doubs is his clear target. I think he will break out this year on a not-so-great team that might need to play from behind at least half the time, which means more passing and more Romeo.
Who is your favorite late-round TE breakout candidate?
The Wolf
This will produce some snickers, surely. But especially with Cooper Kupp now questionable, Tyler Higbee could be thrust into THE WR1 role for Matthew Stafford.
According to The Athletic, “Higbee especially looked quicker in short-area opportunities like red zone or goal-line sequences.” He’s fresh off a career-high 105 tgts & 71 receptions, and Stafford will need a reliable presence — either alongside, or in the absence of Cooper Kupp. Higbee averaged nearly 21% target share with Kupp out for the last 8 weeks in 2023, which included his 30 FP spike week. He’s also been Top-12 in 41% of his games the past 2 seasons — more reliable than most TEs this late.
And maybe, just maybe, I’m still clinging to that monstrous 5 Week stretch from 2019. With all the other WRs around him hurt, Hibee went for 23.7, 18.6, 23.1, 19.4, and 22.4 FPs to close out the year, bringing many owners titles alongside him. At a minimum, McVay showed a willingness to make Higbee a focal point when all other options were gone, and Higbee rose to the occasion. Not saying that’ll happen in 2023… but when people hear Higbee and immediately gag and say “no ceiling,” I laugh.
Jackson
Tyler Higbee has had flashes of elite volume throughout his career, including last season when he started the season averaging 9.7 targets per game in the first five games. With teammate Cooper Kupp dealing with a hamstring injury, Higbee has a chance to start the season as the top pass-catcher on the team.
ChaseMG
Mike Gesicki was the TE7 in 2020 before Waddle, Tyreek, and Mike McDaniel’s TE-destroying scheme showed up. Blocking duties are much less of a liability now that Hunter Henry is set to handle most of them. Elite athleticism, polished route running, working with the TEs and WRs at practice, and reuniting with his old college coach Bill O’Brien, who is no stranger utilizing two-TE sets…there are too many arrows pointing up for Gesicki. In dynasty, with the market valuing him as a mid to late 3rd round rookie pick, the risk is practically zero there too.
JimboSlice
Rookie Luke Musgrave played a significant snap percentage and ran routes and nearly all dropbacks during his inaugural preseason. His usage has been amazing in preseason yet nobody wants to draft this guy. He seems to have a connection with Love, and there aren’t many other playmakers at receiver other than Watson and Doubs.
Owen
Usually, the tight-end position is only dominated by a few players. If you don’t get one, everybody else falls into a big bucket of “not gonna outperform the top dogs.” Taysom Hill is one of the only TEs that will give you a few weeks at TE1, which could be very well worth it if you find yourself matched up against a guy like Travis Kelce.
