From a fantasy football perspective, the running back position arguably has the least amount of depth. Tight end is the only position that truly competes with the inconsistency and lack of depth at running back.
The lack of depth can be attributed to a few key reasons.
First, there are few running backs left in the NFL who handle a significant portion of their team’s rushing workload. The running back by committee has taken over the NFL and it is here to stay. Second, running backs take an absolute beating on a weekly basis. This leads to very few running backs playing all 17 games in a season. This results in unreliable fantasy production from running backs.
Because of this, finding a late-round RB who can provide stable production is incredibly valuable. These are some 2023 late-round running back sleepers (PPR ADP after pick 100) that can provide that extra spark for your fantasy team.
RASHAAD PENNY, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (ADP: 113, RB36)
After five seasons in Seattle that were riddled with injury, Rashaad Penny has found a new home in Philadelphia. Although Penny does not find himself in a bell-cow role due to the presence of D’Andre Swift and others, the Eagles are a great landing spot for Penny. In 2022, the Eagles featured one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking third in both points and yards per game. The Eagles were also one of the best teams at running the ball last season. Philadelphia rushed for the fifth most yards per game and ranked 3rd in run-blocking grade. All of this is to show that Philadelphia sets Penny up for success on the ground in 2023.
Former Eagles running back Miles Sanders leaves behind 259 vacant carries. Penny’s primary competition for these vacated carries will be Swift. However, throughout Swift’s career, he has been more effective as a pass catcher while Penny has been the most effective runner (outside of Jalen Hurts) on this Eagles roster. Over the last few seasons, Penny has been one of the league’s best in yards per attempt and breakaway run rate. On just 57 carries last season, Penny had five breakaway carries (rushes for 15+ yards) and averaged 6.1 yards per carry. In 2021, he averaged 6.3 yards per carry and had a breakaway run rate of 12.6%, both of which led the league for those with at least 25 carries.
The only question surrounding Penny is his health. I’m not one who gets behind downgrading players because they are “injury prone.” Yet, injuries are so consistent with Penny that it is a legitimate concern. But, when healthy, Penny has shown that he can be an efficient and explosive back. On a high-powered offense, with the opportunity to set a career-high in touches, Penny could end up being a steal in drafts if he stays healthy.
KHALIL HERBERT, CHICAGO BEARS (ADP: 121, RB40)
Let’s just be honest, none of you have a clue about what to do with the Chicago Bears backfield, and neither do I. Nevertheless, this can be an advantage. Finding the player who takes over an ambiguous backfield (a running back room with no clear RB1) can lead to a tremendous return on investment. Khalil Herbert has the talent to be the player that takes over this Chicago backfield.
Without getting too deep into the numbers, historical data shows that taking the RB1 (based on ADP) of an ambiguous backfield leads to the greatest chance of fantasy success. For a better explanation of this topic and the “Ambiguous RB1 Theory” check out this article by JJ Zachariason.
While the data points to Herbert being the most likely to emerge from this backfield, his talent suggests the same. Throughout his rookie and sophomore seasons, Herbert has proven to be an efficient and elusive ball carrier. On 129 carries in 2022, Herbert averaged 5.7 yards per carry, which ranked fourth among backs with at least 50 carries. Herbert ranked highly in another critical metric, missed tackles forced per attempt. Ranking sixth in this metric, Herbert showed the ability to force missed tackles and create plays for himself.
With David Montgomery departing, 201 running back carries are up for grabs in Chicago. These carries will be distributed between Herbert, newcomer D’Onta Foreman, and rookie Roschon Johnson. The big question is how these carries will be split. Herbert has shown the ability to produce with the ball in his hands and is the most familiar with the offensive system in Chicago. There is an opportunity for any of these three to take on the primary role in this running back room, but Herbert is the most talented runner of the group and he can pay off big time with his late-round price tag.
KENDRE MILLER, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (ADP: 140, RB46)
Kendre Miller proves to be one of the most interesting rookie running backs, as highlighted by Duck. Miller displayed a desirable combination of both quickness and strength while at TCU.
Throughout his time as a Horned Frog, Miller posted an impressive 6.7 yards per carry and 3.6 yards after contact per attempt. Overall, he racked up just under 1700 total yards and found the endzone 17 times, while leading TCU to the National Championship game.
Entering the 2023 NFL season, Miller finds himself in a somewhat crowded running back room in New Orleans. Established NFL veterans Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams stand between Miller and consistent volume. But, this isn’t necessarily bad.
When it comes to Williams, his role seems to have been established following his 2022 performance in Detroit. Williams was used as a short-yardage bruiser who could pick up a few yards on third and short or near the goal line. As of now, there are no indications that Williams’ role will look much different with the Saints.
Alvin Kamara provides a whole new set of questions. With a suspension looming, the big question is how many games will Kamara miss? Most expect the suspension to range from three to six games. Clearly, the longer that Kamara is without the team, the better for Miller as he will have more time to establish a role in the offense. On top of this, Kamara was simply not effective down the stretch last season. After Week 8, Kamara had just one RB1 finish. In these nine games, Kamara finished as the RB20 or worse seven times.
Miller has the opportunity to prove his worth early in the season during Kamara’s absence. If he can prove to be effective, he can certainly establish a role that can be maintained throughout the season. When considering Kamara’s struggles, there is a path to Miller taking on a significant portion of running back touches. When considering his late 12th-round price, Miller is a great low-cost investment.
JEROME FORD, CLEVELAND BROWNS (ADP: 162, RB51)
With the departure of Kareem Hunt, touches are up for grabs in Cleveland. Unless a veteran addition is made, Jerome Ford is in line to absorb some of this work. Ford is certainly not going to directly absorb the role that Hunt had, but reports indicate that Ford will take on whatever work Chubb does not take.
During his rookie year in 2022, Ford was used on an extremely limited basis, carrying the ball just eight times in 13 games. Because of this, we must look back to Ford’s college days to evaluate his productivity. Ford was a key contributor to Cincinnati’s run to the College Football Playoff in 2021. During his time as a Bearcat, Ford regularly displayed his elite speed. Often leaving defenders in the dust, Ford routinely made highlight reel plays. This explosiveness can certainly translate to the NFL and can complement Nick Chubb’s strength and power.
As the team’s clear RB2, Ford does not have much standalone value in fantasy football. Yet, Kevin Stefanski’s offense in Cleveland has shown the ability to support multiple running backs. In the last three seasons with the Browns, Kareem Hunt finished as an RB2 or better in 15 of 41 games. While Ford will likely not achieve these numbers, Cleveland is an offense that can create a fantasy-relevant RB2. Furthermore, there is always a chance that Nick Chubb misses time. If this does happen, Ford immediately becomes a massive asset in fantasy.
Early in the offseason, Ford was going at the very end of drafts and was essentially free. Now going in the 14th round, Ford’s price is still minimal. But, I would prefer him in one of the final rounds of drafts. In most home leagues, it is certainly possible to get him with one of your last picks. Ford is an unknown name to most casual NFL fans and could easily be snatched up with a final draft pick in a more casual league.
FINAL COMMENTS
You might notice some similarities among these running backs. All of the running backs that I pointed out are on teams where a primary factor in the run game has departed or the pecking order in the running back room is not clearly established. These are two identifiers that I look for when picking out late-round ball carriers. Finding ball carriers in these situations can lead to huge payoffs.
After finding players in these situations, bet on talent. Unless there is a player that is clearly the best option in that backfield, find the player who is efficient, explosive, athletic, etc. Talent usually wins out and is the best bet to make in the later rounds of drafts.
Finding quality running backs is incredibly frustrating in fantasy football. If your top two or three running backs work out and stay healthy, count your lucky stars. For most fantasy managers, an early running back often gets injured or is unreliable. For this reason, late-round draft picks often become utilized on rosters. These four players are great options in the back half of drafts to potentially save your lineup this season.
