Unfortunately, not every fantasy football team can end up with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts. If you end up being one of the last managers to select a quarterback in your draft, you may be concerned. However, let me tell you that there are plenty of quality QB sleepers that are available in the back half of 2023 fantasy drafts.
There is almost always a QB who is selected outside of the “elite” group of quarterbacks who ends up breaking out, becoming one of the most valuable assets in fantasy. We had Justin Fields in 2022, Joe Burrow broke out in 2021, Josh Allen led the league in scoring in 2020, Lamar Jackson shocked the league in 2019, and the list goes on.
When it comes to drafting a quarterback, selecting one that is outside the top 10 in QB ADP is considered a ‘late-round quarterback,’ in my opinion. For this reason, we will be taking a look at high-upside quarterbacks who are currently being selected as the QB11 or later. If you find yourself punting on the quarterback spot to fill out the rest of your roster during the first 7-8 rounds, consider these options.
TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS (ADP: QB11)
Tua Tagovailoa is someone who I have already covered as a quarterback who can pay off in a big way this season. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his side, Tua took the NFL by storm in 2022. Unfortunately, his season was derailed by a series of concussions that created concerns that he may never play football again. Thankfully, Tua is back in 2023 and will be at the helm of the Dolphins’ offense. Yet, these concussions are the reason why Tua’s ADP is currently in the 8th round.
I encourage you not to draft scared. Prior to his injuries, Tua was playing at an elite level. Excluding the two games that Tagovailoa left with an injury, he averaged 20.2 points per game, placing him as the QB4 in PPG. On top of the elite fantasy production, Tua was one of the league’s best in some crucial advanced metrics. While healthy in 2022, Tua ranked first in yards per attempt, third in air yards per attempt, third in QBR, first in deep ball completion percentage, and eigth in fantasy points per dropback.
In my opinion, this level of efficiency and production are too elite to pass up given his current cost. I understand the concerns surrounding the concussions but the stats paint the picture of an elite quarterback that can be found in the range of pick 100. While I believe there are several better options than Tua for this upcoming season, Tagovailoa is a prime target for those who pass on an elite quarterback. Tua is currently being drafted at his absolute floor because everyone is scared of his injury issues, but luckily, I am always in favor of drafting players at their floor. There is simply nothing better in fantasy football. Don’t draft scared.
DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS (ADP: QB13)
Daniel Jones may be one of the most unexciting quarterbacks in fantasy, if not the entire NFL. Despite his lack of excitement, Daniel Jones had some incredibly productive weeks in 2022. Over the course of the season, Jones had seven weeks with a QB1 finish and had three weeks as a top-three QB. Jones also closed out the season on an extremely strong note. From Week 10 to the end of the year, Jones averaged 20.5 points per game, the QB4 in this span.
Jones’ fantasy success stemmed from his legs. He was able to do this despite being teammates with elite running back Saquon Barkley. Jones ranked top-five among quarterbacks in nearly every significant rushing statistic. This included rushing yards, yards per carry, red zone carries, and rushing touchdowns, among others. There is no indication that Jones will be any less productive on the ground in 2023. His legs will undoubtedly be a large part of the Giants’ offensive game plan and will significantly contribute to his fantasy success.
In 2022, Jones was forced to play with one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the NFL. The Giants’ leading receivers last year were Richie James, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins. None of these players finished the season with more than 750 yards. Thankfully for Jones and the New York offense, significant improvements have been made this offseason. The Giants’ group of pass catchers now features Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, Jaylin Hyatt, Sterling Shepard, and the receivers previously mentioned outside of Richie James. This is clearly an upgrade for Jones and I believe he will capitalize on these upgrades. Jones is set up to put up the best passing numbers of his career and the Giants offense will likely make significant improvements.
RUSSELL WILSON, DENVER BRONCOS (ADP: QB18)
Let’s not sugarcoat it, Russell Wilson was horrible last season. Despite being equipped with a more than respectable arsenal of weapons, Wilson disappointed his fantasy managers. Wilson had a career-low in fantasy points per game and led the Broncos to a 32nd-ranked offense in points per game. It truly could not have been worse for Wilson and the Broncos last season. Wilson’s current price reflects his abysmal year. However, I believe this is a perfect time to capitalize on a cheap price for a former Super Bowl-winning QB.
The Denver offense will have a different look in 2023. No, they did not add a superstar at a skill position. They added a superstar head coach by the name of Sean Payton. It doesn’t take a genius to know that this is a massive step up from former head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Payton has a history of creating some incredibly productive offenses.
It is entirely possible that Hackett was a driving factor behind the Broncos’ struggles. In the two games Wilson played after Hackett was fired, Wilson finished as a top-five QB in both games. While the sample is minuscule, it is worth noting.
Payton will certainly be able to craft an offense capable of scoring and bringing out the best in his players. But at the end of the day, the success of the Broncos’ offense primarily falls on the shoulders of Wilson and his top-notch surrounding talent. Wilson has shown time and time again that he is capable of leading a productive offense and being an asset on fantasy teams. Given his almost free price, I think he is worth a flier as a second QB on your roster in the hopes that he may return to his former self. He’d be the perfect complement for Tua drafters.
KENNY PICKETT, PITTSBURGH STEELERS (ADP: QB22)
Kenny Pickett was by no means a breakout during his rookie season. During his first year, Pickett struggled to throw the ball. While not horrendous, Pickett was in the lower part of the league for most advanced metrics. Nonetheless, this tends to be the case for most rookie quarterbacks. For this reason, I am not terribly concerned that Pickett was not a top-tier passer in his first 12 NFL games.
One encouraging part of Pickett’s game was how he was able to run the ball. He ranked 14th in yards per attempt and attempts per game. What’s even more encouraging is that he ranked 11th in red zone carries and ninth in rushing touchdowns. With a full season to rack up rushing stats in 2023, I believe Pickett’s ability to run the ball will bolster his fantasy numbers and help him outperform his ADP.
Let’s get back to Pickett’s passing. He is surrounded by a quality set of pass catchers that will hopefully allow him to make a step forward next year. Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth are capable of bringing out the best in Pickett. Johnson is one of the league’s best route runners who can get open with ease. Pickens has proven to be an incredible athlete who can make incredibly difficult catches in contested situations. Freiermuth has shown that he is a reliable tight end who can serve as a safety blanket for Pickett. The Pitt product is bound to make a step forward as a passer and these pass catchers will be a key factor in his improvement.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Finding the next big thing at the quarterback position is one of the most valuable things in fantasy football. However, taking a stab at a late-round quarterback is not always the safest idea. Take the draft as it comes to you. If the upper-tier quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than you think they should then consider one of these guys. Another great strategy is to take two of these guys (or another late-round QB) and look for one to turn into a QB1.
This year’s breakout quarterback is out there. And while it’s nice to spend a second or third-round pick on a surefire elite QB, it’s even sweeter to find the next Lamar Jackson in the 11th round. Like I said before, proceed with caution. If you find yourself waiting on drafting a QB, consider these four guys. They might just win you a championship in 2023.
