Coming off our first losing week in about a month, we’re back with more Thursday night picks, presented by PrizePicks. Last week was a tough one for us, resulting in a 1-3 showing. We had the over at 43.5 and even with the line moving to 41 by kickoff, it still went under as both teams, particularly the Falcons, struggled to generate offense on a rainy Charlotte night. DJ Moore finished with just four receptions for 29 yards, and Tyler Allgeier finished with 20 yards on just 2.5 yards per carry and no real red zone opportunities. Drake London had a solid game with five grabs for 38 yards and a score, but we had his under at 38.5, so we snuck out with at least one victory on the night.
If you’re new here, each week for the Thursday game I’ll be giving out four picks:
- One game line pick (Spread or Over/Under)
- One player prop OVER via PrizePicks
- One player prop UNDER via PrizePicks
- One TD scorer
Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines.
Week 11 kicks off at Lambeau Field on Thursday night as the 6-3 Titans travel to face the 4-6 Packers. Both teams are coming off wins in Week 10, as the Titans scored 17 unanswered to take down the Broncos, and the Packers staged a late comeback to take down the Cowboys in overtime. The Packers are currently 3-point home favorites in this one, with the total set at 41.
Season Record: 21-19, +3.4 units
GAME TOTAL: OVER 41
If you’re a recurring reader, you know that we’ve kept a close eye on the record of primetime unders so far this year. They started hot before things evened out a little as of late, but unders are still 23-11-1 in primetime games this year. I personally think those numbers are starting to dictate how Vegas sets these totals, and I see this game as a chance to take advantage of the oddsmakers falling victim to the trends.
The Titans’ offense is obviously in much better shape with Ryan Tannehill under center than they were with Malik Willis, but truthfully, the quarterback doesn’t really matter when you can run the ball like Tennessee can with Derrick Henry. The running back’s season is in full swing, and even after a very slow day by his standards (19 rushes for 53 yards) in Week 10, he’s averaging over 121 yards per game since the calendar flipped to October.
Henry is just eight yards behind Saquon Barkley for the league lead and should have his way with a Green Bay defense that’s 26th in stopping the run. The last time Tennessee faced a run defense ranked as low as the Packers was three weeks ago in Houston when Henry logged 32 carries for 219 yards and two touchdowns. That will obviously be tough to replicate, but I think he could have similar success in this matchup, with Tennessee favoring the run game as they face the league’s third-ranked pass defense.
While the Packers are strong against the pass and weak against the run, the Titans are the opposite — their 85.1 rush yards allowed per game is behind only San Francisco, but they allow 272.6 pass yards per game, which puts them at 31st in the league. Aaron Rodgers had arguably his best game of the year last week, throwing for 224 yards and three touchdowns despite attempting only 20 passes in the OT win over Dallas. He’s seemingly finally found some receivers he can trust, including top waiver wire add Christian Watson, who led the team with eight targets and caught four passes for 107 yards and all three of Rodgers’ touchdowns. Watson is listed as questionable for this one, but early signs are he’ll be good to go. Watson and Green Bay’s other pass catchers should be able to find plenty of holes in Tennesee’s leaky secondary, and Rodgers should be able to ride the momentum from last week’s win into another big week.
With both teams’ defensive shortcomings opening up opportunities for their opponents’ strengths, I think we’ll see a good amount of points in this one, and I like the over.
ROBERT TONYAN OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Despite just one target last week resulting in one catch for eight yards, Robert Tonyan has been a solid option for Rodgers as of late. He had topped this number in Green Bay’s previous four games before Week 10, averaging over 5 catches for 46.5 yards per game from Weeks 5 to 9. Tonyan’s dud last week came against a Dallas defense that’s yielded the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends in 2022, while Tennessee has given up the fourth-most tight end yardage at 582.
In Green Bay’s last primetime matchup in Buffalo, Tonyan caught five of six targets for 35 yards, and I see that as his floor in this one. Tennessee’s focus on Watson after his breakout performance and its overall shaky secondary should open up plenty of chances for Tonyan to hit this number with ease.
TREYLON BURKS UNDER 34.5 RECEIVING YARDS
While Tennesee boasts a top-10 rushing offense, they’re 31st in the league in passing, ahead of only Chicago. Those numbers are skewed slightly by a few games with Malik Willis at the helm, but Ryan Tannehill is still averaging just 193 yards per game, and his total is set at 175.5 in this one against a strong secondary. That type of offense doesn’t support much production from secondary receiving options, and with Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Austin Hooper combining for 22 of 36 available targets last week, Treylon Burks may be the odd man out.
Burks has had a decent rookie year so far in a run-first offense, but missed some time with a toe injury that may have hindered his overall role in the Titans offense. He hasn’t topped this number in his last three games, and I don’t think he will in this one, either.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: AUSTIN HOOPER +550
When it comes to finding value touchdown prop plays, I’m a sucker for a “he’s due” pick, and Hooper fits that bill. He’s played all nine games for Tennessee and is second on the team in targets and receptions and third in yards, but doesn’t have a touchdown yet on the year — although he was about a yard away from one in Tennessee’s Week 9 loss to Kansas City. His subpar blocking can limit his time on the field, especially in the red zone, but at 6’4″ he’s a great red zone target to lean on for a QB who’s struggled this year.
Hooper has caught at least three touchdowns in all six of his previous NFL seasons, and he needs to get on the board soon to have a chance to extend that streak to seven. Green Bay is among the league’s best in limiting tight end yardage, but they have given up four touchdowns to tight ends this year. Coming off a season-high seven targets a week ago, I’m banking on Hooper increasing that number to five in this one.