Welcome to the final countdown to the playoffs! Commence headbanging, as I’m sure that many of you reading this immediately began singing Europe’s smash hit.
Week 9 was… well, words that could accurately be used to describe it cannot/should not be uttered in the written word.
Andy Holloway of The Fantasy Footballers said it best when he said Week 9 was drunk.
Week 9 air yards leaders:
1. Ceedee Lamb: 212 air yards
2. Tyreek Hill: 199
3. Ja'Marr Chase: 172
4. Davante Adams: 162
5. Zach Pascal: 142
6. Tee Higgins: 129
7. Brandin Cooks: 121
8. George Kittle: 116
9. Rashod Bateman: 111
10. Mark Andrews: 110— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 8, 2021
How many of you would have believed that CeeDee Lamb would have 212 air yards, nine targets, and only catch two passes for 23 yards? Or that Ja’Marr Chase would have 172 air yards, 13 targets, and only finish with 49 receiving yards?
Week 9 made zero sense.
So wad it up, throw it out the window, and move on.
Quarterbacks
START ‘EM
Derek Carr vs Kansas City Chiefs
Here’s what you need to know. The Chiefs are a liability on defense. Right now, the Chiefs are also a liability on offense. No, Patrick Mahomes is not hurt. At least not that we’re aware of. However, the team is in utter disarray from top to bottom. On the defensive side, the Chiefs rank 30th against fantasy QBs on the season.
Carr has been good this season. Even the carousel of Jon Gruden couldn’t derail Carr’s performance. In five of his eight games this year, Carr has eclipsed 22 fantasy points. The Chiefs also rank eighth in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) over the last five weeks, according to the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer.
Even if Carr doesn’t outperform expectation, the Chiefs have yielded over 24 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Carr offers a safe floor with a decent chance of booming in Week 10.
Honorable Mention – Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Roethlisberger
SIT ‘EM
Ryan Tannehill vs New Orleans Saints
This offensive freight train has lost its main locomotive. Derrick Henry is likely out for the remainder of the season and the bedrock of this efficient offense is sinking in quicksand. Tannehill averages 20.3 fantasy points per game and scored only 15 in his first game without Henry. Prior to Henry’s injury, AJ Brown had been rounding into form, scoring over 23 points per game in his previous two games.
While the opportunity for Tannehill is certainly there for him to blow up, he has been the very definition of average so far this season. Tannehill has only scored 1.7 FPOE this season. New Orleans has been a plus matchup for opposing QBs this season, averaging 3.1 FPOE/game. It just doesn’t seem likely that this offense comes out clicking on all cylinders after losing the bedrock of the entire offense.
Honorable Mention – Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins
Running Backs
START ‘EM
Devin Singletary vs New York Jets
Starting Devin Singletary tends to put a bad taste in one’s mouth. I get it. However, Singletary is always efficient with his touches when he gets work. But his high-value touches are scarce and he’s trapped in a cannibalizing committee with Zack Moss. Well, Moss isn’t a lock to play this week as he remains in the concussion protocol. If Moss misses Week 10 like he’s on track to, Singletary could be walking into a very lucrative opportunity.
The Jets rank 1st in FPOE given up to the RB position over the last five weeks. In fact, the Jets have allowed 42.6 PPR points per game to the position in that same timeframe. Without Moss, Singletary has, historically, been given between 16 and 17 touches/game. Singletary is almost a lock to breakoff multiple chunk plays on the ground and has multiple touchdown upside this week.
Fire him up!
*Note: Even if Moss plays this week, fire up Singletary
Honorable Mention – D’Ernest Johnson, Kenyan Drake
SIT ‘EM
Antonio Gibson vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To say that Antonio Gibson has been disappointing this season is generous. Then again, the narrative and expectations surrounding Gibson made it almost impossible to live up to the hype. Regardless, combining for 19 PPR points over three weeks isn’t cutting it.
The general rule is that you do not run on the Bucs. Gibson’s constant health struggles paired with the team’s preferential treatment of JD McKissic in the passing game is priming Gibson to fall on his face in Week 10. Being 9.5 point underdogs certainly doesn’t help with crafting a pro-Gibson narrative.
It’s time to reacquaint Gibson with your bench.
Honorable Mention – Adrian Peterson, Jordan Howard
Wide Receivers
START ‘EM
Jerry Jeudy vs Philadelphia Eagles
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Jeudy is the clear alpha WR of the team. Sorry, Courtland Sutton truthers. What appeared to be a huge season in the making was halted as Jeudy suffered a substantial ankle sprain midway through his week one game against the Giants.
After being eased back into action in week eight, Jeudy caught six of his eight targets for 69 yards against the Cowboys. It’s worth remembering that Denver ran Dallas off the field and Denver didn’t necessarily have to throw much. This week’s matchup with the Eagles projects to put Jeudy in a position to be featured early and often. Jeudy’s projected target volume and abilities after the catch has him in line for a big game in Week 10.
Honorable Mention – Cole Beasley, Tyler Lockett
SIT ‘EM
DeVonta Smith vs Denver Broncos
On the flip side of the field, fresh off a big week, is DeVonta Smith. The Broncos’ secondary is licking their chops while looking at the bare cupboard of weapons they’ll be facing this Sunday.
Smith is in line to be the sole focus of the Broncos’ talented, young secondary. In Smith’s last four games, he has two games with four or fewer targets and two games with six or more. Prior to last week’s explosion, Smith had scored 11 or fewer fantasy points in three straight games. With an implied team total of 21 points in a game with an over/under of 45 points, the Eagles will not find themselves with high TD opportunities.
Honorable Mention – Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk
Tight End Streamers
Pat Friermuth vs Detroit Lions
Noah Fant vs Philadelphia Eagles
Ricky Seals-Jones vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
