Although we are primarily a redraft fantasy football website, we aren’t too shabby at DFS. Below, we’ve combined the brains of our excellent DFS staff (The Wolf, JimboSlice, Kendall Brown, and Tailback Tino) to create an NFL Week 5 DraftKings Cheat Sheet that’s sure to win you big money this weekend.
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NFL WEEK 5 DFS PICKS: DRAFTKINGS CHEAT SHEET
FAVORITE HIGH-PRICED ANCHOR PLAY
Kendall Brown: Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000) – Everyone talking about the “timeshare” that never was, between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Week 1 (*cough, cough* JT) is awfully quiet. Zeke has now scored four touchdowns in three games and is averaging 103 yards rushing per game over this time. He’s also played 71%, 70%, and 75% of snaps the last three weeks, so while Tony Pollard isn’t a complete non-factor, Zeke is the clear RB1. With Amari Cooper a bit banged up, you may see the Cowboys lean on their elite running game a bit more in Week 5.
The Wolf: Derrick Henry ($9,000) – It’s hard for me to start a lineup without first locking in Derrick Henry and then asking “now what?” Indeed, Henry’s been every bit the steamroller of years’ past, pacing the league in yards (510), TDs (4), and att (113 — 30 more than the next closest Mixon). Yet what’s most intriguing is his 15 targets (17th among RBs, 1 more than Kamara), along with 14 receptions & 125 receiving yards — both Top-12 among RBs, and more receiving yards than he posted last year & 2018 in just 4 games. SHOCKER: He’s thriving out in space, ranking 11th in yards per route run (2.27). Sure, Jeremy McNichols mixed in for 12 targets last week, but this newly-tapped receiving well makes Henry a $10K+ player any week, but especially vs. the Jags. We know how that goes.
Tailback Tino: DJ Moore ($7,500) – I’m completely buying the DJ Moore breakout as Darnold’s alpha WR1. I’ve spoken in the past about Darnold’s tendency to lock into his most trusted option, and he has been increasingly doing so with DJ Moore over the past few weeks. Even if Moore doesn’t blow up, he is still going to give you a solid week that can help you cash. Even if CMC is surprisingly active this week, I still trust Moore to be the focal point of the offense and receive 8+ targets.
JimboSlice: Justin Jefferson ($7,700) – Every lineup will center around the stack of Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. JJ sports a 99.9% matchup advantage per PFF which is absolutely unheard of. The Lions’ defense and secondary are so shitty that an alpha WR like Jefferson has a very good chance for thrashing this team towards a 10-100-2 game. His upside is unlimited this week.
FAVORITE MIDDLE-PRICED PLAYERS
KB: D’Andre Swift ($6,100) – Swift is coming off his worst statistical performance of the season. Despite only turning 14 opportunities into 49 yards from scrimmage, he played a season-high 73% of snaps. Add onto Swift’s increased snap share, the fact that the Lions haven’t been able to stop anyone this year defensively. The Vikings have one of the best offenses in the NFL which means the Lions will be playing from behind the majority of this game. Vegas has the Lions as 9.5 point road underdogs so it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw 10-plus targets go Swift’s direction.
The Wolf: Damien Harris ($5500) – Swift is my clear-cut favorite midtier RB, but he was already selected, so let me go with a low-owned leverage stab. Harris isn’t likely to be heavily owned following back-to-back sub 5 FP days, yet HOU is the ripest atmosphere for a big rebound. Harris ran a team (and career) high 17 routes last week, and could find a newfound 3-down-lite (Bolden, ew) role with White now shelved. Over 100 yards, 2 TDs, and 3-5 rec aren’t impossible for a guy who will go virtually unowned.
TT: Antonio Brown ($5,200) + Leonard Fournette ($5,200) – I’m going to be stacking a few Bucs this weekend with Tom Brady, and I think it is going to be these two. AB was one of the few bright spots in the Bucs’ underwhelming win over the Pats last week, and it looks like Brady and AB are clicking on all cylinders. With the Bucs WR’s all having the ability to go off, give me the cheapest option who flashed as recent as last week.
JimboSlice: CeeDee Lamb ($6,200) – Water always finds its level, and Lamb’s water level has been Dead Sea-esque over the last few weeks. Dalton Schultz can’t sustain this many weeks of being the Cowboys’ top receiving option, and with Amari Cooper’s lingering hamstring issue I think Lamb bounces back in a huge way this week with the potential for increased work should Cooper’s injury flare-up. Lamb went for 8-124 on 11 targets last year against the Giants with Dak under center.
FAVORITE LOW-PRICED BARGAINS
KB: Darnell Mooney ($4,700) – With David Montgomery hurt and Allen Robinson likely to see a lot of Casey Hayward Jr., Mooney should be heavily involved again against the Raiders. Three of their top four corners are on the Week 5 injury report which means he could be facing backups. Aside from Week 3 atrocity where Justin Fields only attempted 20 passes, Mooney has received 7+ targets in every game, breaking out last week with 125 yards receiving. This feels a bit like chasing points, but there’s a lot of Twitter talk about Darnell Mooney being Justin Fields’ Chris Olave —- here’s to hoping that’s a fact.
The Wolf: Trey Lance ($5700) – The time has arrived, and you better believe I won’t be missing out on a sub-6k Trey Lance with 30+ FP upside. Perhaps I should’ve learned my lesson with Justin Fields two weeks ago, but Lance is a different animal, with different weapons, and most importantly, with a different play-caller. He just put up over 20 FPs in A HALF of action, ripping 157 yards & 2 TDs through the air while flashing the Konami Code we know and love with 41 yards on just 7 carries. He wasn’t without hiccups, and won’t be flawless Sunday, but the 49ers will need to chase points. Lance should be fully unleashed in what’ll likely amount to an audition for the season-long role coming out of their Week 6 Bye. Lance – Deebo and even a cheap Brandon Aiyuk make for some upside stacks in one of the best-projected atmospheres (50.5 O/U) on the main slate.
The Wolf’s Bonus Plays: Kadarius Toney ($4000) & John Ross ($3400) – While I had to write about Lance, I couldn’t pass up the chance to emphasize one of my favorite game-stacks of the week: Giants v. Cowboys. The 52.5 O/U is the highest on the main slate, and while my favorite way to attack that is through both RBs (particularly Ezekiel Elliott at $7k), I love the cheap upside of Kadarius Toney and even John Ross. Toney may have had a nightmare offseason, but in his first extended run last week, he flashed acceleration and change-of-direction that very few current players possess en route to six rec (9 tgts) & 78 yards. He jumps off the page as a true difference-maker and should only see his role grow. Meanwhile, more overlooked is Ross, who went 3-72-1 TD including a 52-yard bomb and should remain a key field stretcher this year. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both are likely to remain sidelined, while Kenny Golladay will have his hands full with Trevon Diggs, perhaps the NFL’s best CB. This should mean a ton of looks for Toney, and a decent chunk for Ross, against a Cowboys defense allowing the second-most passing yards (315) and 3rd most FPs to WRs per game.
TT: Laviska Shenault ($4,800) – Expecting the brilliant mind that is Urban Meyer to scheme in some more Shenault with Chark now out. If Tennessee takes an early lead and Jacksonville has to get away from the run, I could definitely see “Viska” going from a high floor play to having some solid upside.
JimboSlice: Jaylen Waddle ($4,800) – I love all the picks here above of Shenault, Mooney, and Toney so I’ll roll with Jaylen Waddle. Down week last week, but should see a bump in targets with Will Fuller sidelined after a broken finger. Tampa Bay is also struggling to keep their secondary healthy as they continue to just plug starting spots with less than ideal pieces. Positive game script for Miami having to throw more playing catchup with Tom Brady. If Tua was back I’d like this a lot more, but Jacoby will have to do. Just get him the ball and trust your playmaker to turn chicken shit into chicken salad.
