After a profitable Thursday night (2-1), my overall record sits at 5-7 on the year with a return of +2.65u. This Monday, we get a scorching hot Las Vegas Raiders team taking on a finally-well-coached Los Angeles Chargers team. The line favors the Chargers by 3 points, so oddsmakers expect this to be a tight game and essentially a pick ’em with the home team giving three points. I personally want nothing to do with this line, so let’s get into player props that we can feel a little more confident about.
1. ZAY JONES OVER 4.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Zay Jones has seen only three targets this season, however, he’s caught all of them for an average of 20.3 yards per reception. In this game, I anticipate the Chargers’ defense will pose a pretty good threat to Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense. In a divisional game, I expect these coaches to take advantage of their knowledge of the players and scheme up some plays for their own. Zay Jones is a fast deep threat who makes plays vertically or after the catch. If the Chargers decide to double-cover Darren Waller, expect Jones to get a few targets.
2. KEENAN ALLEN OVER 7.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)
Despite the rise of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen has still seen double-digit targets in two of the team’s first three games. The Raiders’ defense has looked stout, but they still lack a true No. 1 corner that can cover Allen. With Allen hitting this prop in both games he saw double-digit targets, I think that this play can certainly hit and is worth taking a shot on with plus money. Look for Herbert to check to his security blanket often since journeyman tackle Storm Norton is likely assigned to Maxx Crosby.
3. JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 2.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+150)
We’re riding the over train today (I am never a fan of betting unders just for the viewing experience). As my longshot pick tonight, I’m going with Justin Herbert to throw three or more touchdowns tonight. Herbert threw for four touchdowns against the division rival Kansas City Chiefs, and I expect him to put up similar numbers tonight against another divisional opponent. The spread anticipates this being a close game, which I agree with. That means both teams should have a heavy dose of passing tonight.
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