After a week-long hiatus, I am back and better than ever for a brand new week of player props. After Week 3, we’re sitting at 4-3(+1.03 units) on the season. As Matthew McConaughey said in The Wolf of Wall Street, “You gotta pump those numbers up! Those are rookie numbers!” And we will! Luckily, we’re not losing money. But I sure as hell would like to be winning a lot more. A couple bad beats here and there have held us back, but it’s Week 4. It’s time to shit or get off the pot.
That starts today.
There are plenty of great games to pick from today, but who are we kidding? We all know the only game anyone cares about today. Whether you’re in Tampa Bay or Foxboro, the only game that matters today is Titans at the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS. Huge matchup between the Titans and the former New York Titans!!!
Okay, enough beating around the bush.
I’ve got three picks for the Sunday Night Football game that is being dubbed as the GOAT bowl: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the New England Patriots.
TOM BRADY OVER 2.5 TD PASSES (+115)
For my first pick, I will be leaning on an old friend as I will once again be taking Tom Brady to throw for over 2.5 TD passes (+115). This bet has quickly become a darling bet of mine over the last calendar year. After a disastrous start to my run of Tom Brady bets, I have actually hit the last two times I have taken it (Super Bowl 55 & Week 1). Now, I know what everyone is thinking, “There’s no way Bill Belichick lets Tom throw 3 touchdowns tonight” Yes, I’m sure Bill will most definitely try his hardest to not let Tom beat him. That being said, this game is personal for Brady and he is going to put on a god damn spectacle of a performance tonight in the stadium he called home for 20 years. I don’t even care that the Patriots haven’t given up three touchdown passes in a game this season. The three quarterbacks they have played so far were Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. Need I say more? After a clunker last week, Brady will rebound strong this week and ball out against his former team. DraftKings is giving away money in this spot! We have to take it!
ANTONIO BROWN ANYTIME TD SCORER (+140)
As for my next pick of the evening, it directly ties into my last one. For my second pick of Week 4, I will be taking Antonio Brown as an anytime touchdown scorer (+140). Across gambling twitter, there seems to be the sentiment that this is the “chalk” pick due to the obvious connection with Brown, Brady, and the Patriots. And while this certainly is a popular pick, I think a lot of people are overthinking this one. Like I said earlier, this game is personal for Tom Brady. He is going to do everything in his power to show Belichick that he fucked up. Despite the fact that Antonio Brown has had his off-the-field issues, Tom Brady loves the receiver. And I’m sure Tom would’ve loved to try and bring him back to New England and make everything work after Brown was initially released. Obviously, this is a gut feeling, but I just have a really good inclination that Tom will try and force it to AB to stick it right in Bill Belichick’s face. If Gronk were playing, he’d score too. Whatever Tom can do to show Bill up, he will do tonight.
MAC JONES OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Next, we actually turn to Tom Brady’s successor. For my third and final pick of Week 3, I will be taking Mac Jones to throw for over 257.5 yards (-115). In his first three NFL starts, Mac Jones has actually surpassed this number two times. In Week 1, Jones threw for 281 yards against a somewhat stout Dolphins defense. Last week, Jones threw for 270 yards against an aging New Orleans defense. While he hasn’t played amazingly, Mac Jones is no slouch. I believe he will go over this total with ease tonight as he takes on a Tampa Bay defense who has given up the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season. The Todd Bowles-led defense is giving up an average of 338 yards per game this season. That’s certainly not what you want out of your reigning Super Bowl Champions. It’s also worth noting that both times Jones went over this number, he was home playing at Gillette. There is also one more thing to consider. Jones is no stranger to playing in big games. And this is certainly the biggest game of his young career so far. Do I think he’ll carry the Patriots to victory? No. But I do think he’ll be elevated by the moment and try to show New England that they’re in good hands for seasons to come.
For what it’s worth, these three picks come out to (+450) if you put them together on a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tail at your own risk! You can find all these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Good luck everybody. Let’s win some money. And, as always, bet responsibly! Feel free to shoot me a follow over on Twitter and Instagram: @dvivolo6.
