If you’re a DFS veteran, then you know how important it is to stack your lineup with players from the same team/game. If you’re new to DFS, consider this — The 2020 Milly Maker field played double stacks 28.6% of the time. But double stacks finished in the Top 100 39.5% of the time. Note that this is the same conclusion we found in 2017-19 data — double stacking creates the best leverage on the field. If you’re trying to finish in the money, stacking is essential, and the sweet spot is with a double stack.
With this in mind, it is also key to “run it back” with a player from the team playing against your stack. The field ran it back with one opponent 34.6% of the time. But single bring backs finished in the Top 100 52.5% of the time. Note that the best leverage was at WR, where the field brought it back with one WR at 25.5% but the Top 100 teams were at 48%. This makes sense because WR is the most volatile position.
We’re rolling the dice and heading to Chicago for this week’s double stack.
WEEK 3 DOUBLE STACK
Justin Fields ($5,200), Allen Robinson ($6,100), Darnell Mooney ($4,300)
Finally! Justin Fields is set to make his highly anticipated first career NFL start. It’s extremely rare that we have a QB in the $5K range that could break the slate. Fields will be tested in his first-ever start against a scary Cleveland Browns pass rush, but his Konami Code ability to scramble and pick up first downs with his legs gives him both a higher floor and ceiling.
The change to Fields should help the entire offense.
Andy Dalton has thrown 1 pass 15 or more air yards this year. He's had 49 attempts. That's the lowest rate in the league by far.
Here's the list: pic.twitter.com/BPPWbRGb9C
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 21, 2021
Everything with Dalton was dink and dunk, he was afraid to or incapable of making longer throws down the field. Fields finished the day 4-of-11 on throws over 15 yards, including a dime to Allen Robinson that he failed to catch in the end zone.
Meanwhile, Fields’ running ability will open up the play-action pass for his receiving options.
#Bears WR Darnell Mooney
Gets a boost here if rookie Justin Fields starts at QB.
Deep crossers/over routes off play-action (below). Flood concepts. Quicks/screens.
Mooney in Week 2 = 66 yards receiving — on 6-of-8 targets. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/2aQG1rTBtA
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) September 21, 2021
This game’s O/U isn’t one of the higher ones of the week, but the Bears are 7.5 point road underdogs. This means there should be plenty of passing attempts for Fields and plenty of targets for Robinson and Mooney as the Bears will likely be playing catch up.
Combined Projected Ownership: 6.7%
Run it back: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns ($5,300 – 7.8%)
GAME STACK
KB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 55.5)
This game, along with 2 others, has an O/U greater than 55 points. Like Vegas, I am expecting a high-scoring affair. I see this game playing out very similarly to opening night when the Cowboys played the Buccaneers. McVay will generate a game plan to attack this somewhat suspect Bucs secondary since no team has been able to run on them for over a year. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs have picked up right where they left off in 2020.
Check out this stat:
I figured this out last night. Sometime in the next few weeks, Tom Brady will throw 13 more touchdown passes. At that point, he will have thrown more touchdown passes in his forties than he did in his twenties. There is no historical paradigm for this. https://t.co/dipZ9moqts
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 20, 2021
Unreal stuff from the GOAT.
But as for this game, the beautiful thing is that you can go so many different directions. At QB both Brady and Matthew Stafford are in play.
The running back situation is fantasy roulette. Darrell Henderson Jr. has looked pretty good so far this season but is dealing with a rib cartilage injury and we’re not sure if he will play as many snaps as he did in Weeks 1 and 2. Even if Henderson Jr. is out or limited, it doesn’t matter because I’m not playing any RBs against the Bucs.
As for the Bucs, Leonard Fournette has been the leader in opportunities and snaps, but both Ronald Jones II and Gio Bernard will be rotated in. You can pick one to start if you really want, but I’m not interested in the running back options in this one.
Now, the pass catchers. There are seven legitimate receiving options you could play in this game. At WR, I’m playing both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The Bucs have allowed the second-most DK points to WR this season in large part because teams refuse to run the ball.
On the Bucs, now that Antonio Brown has been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, you have two primary options to run it back with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. It’s tough to pick my favorite between these two, so I’ll just tell you my least favorite is Evans. I’m assuming that Jalen Ramsey will line up across from him more often.
Lastly, we have the tight ends. Rob Gronkowski has DOMINATED the red zone this season with four targets, four receptions, four touchdowns. It’s unlikely Gronk scores again in Week 3, right?! I’d be willing to take the shot depending on ownership. But you probably can’t afford to get Gronk in your lineup if you take one of the QBs and three or more of the receiving options, so I’d be pivoting to the much cheaper option of Tyler Higbee. The Bucs allow the 11th most DK points per game to TEs so far this season. Also, Higbee is one of three players to have played 100% of his team’s snaps through two weeks and has a higher route involvement than George Kittle and Kyle Pitts.
Overall, I’m fading the running backs and targeting any of the receiving options in this game. With this high of an implied game total, you can even take your shot on cheaper players such as Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, or Scotty Miller to score a long touchdown.
