As important as it is to find the ideal game stacks and double stacks on the slate, we need to find value to throw in our lineups. Value can come by way of players who you believe are underpriced or the projected ownership on a player is just too low. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
VALUE PLAY OF THE WEEK
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams ($4,000 – 1.4%)
If you read our stacks article, you’d know I am targeting the Bucs-Rams matchup. In Week 1, Higbee had an elite target share at 23%, but that number dropped to only 3% a week later. Despite only receiving one target in Week 2, Higbee was still on the field a ton. As I mentioned in the stacks article, he is one of only three players to play 100% of his team’s snaps. He’s running routes on 90% of the team’s dropbacks and has as good a chance as any tight end on the main slate to score two-plus touchdowns (not named Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or Rob Gronkowski).
FADE OF THE WEEK
(7%> Ownership)
New Orleans Saints DST, ($3,100 – 9.2%)
The Saints are traveling to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots in Week 2. I just don’t see a Bill Belichick-coached team losing a game at home to Jameis Winston. We know how turnover-prone Winston is and would it surprise anyone if he’s “seeing ghosts” similar to what Sam Darnold did against the Pats? The Patriots have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and Belichick is going to lean on them to help run this ball and control the clock. When selecting a defense in these GPP tournaments, we’re looking for one that could get over four sacks, force a couple turnovers and maybe even find the endzone. That ceiling isn’t there for me against the Pats and at $3,100 and 9% ownership they are an easy fade.
LONGSHOTS OF THE WEEK
(Price is less than $5K)
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears ($4,300 – 1.2%) – Mooney is finally getting the upgrade at QB that we’ve been clamoring for. We’re at the stage of Andy Dalton’s career where he has become a dink and dunk QB. Whether he’s afraid or incapable of throwing the ball down the field, he just doesn’t do it often enough to bear any high-level fantasy production from his WRs. The entire offense should benefit from the quarterback change, but I’d argue Mooney will benefit the most.
Last season, Mooney was targeted downfield on targets with 20+ air yards 24 times, good for 10th-most in NFL. Yet only six of those targets were catchable. That 25% catchable ball rate on deep throws was second-worst among qualified WRs. Therefore, if he were to have a QB who could provide him catchable deep balls (i.e Justin Fields), we could see immediate success for him. Make no mistake about it, Mooney is about to break out. While this may not be the best matchup for it, that’s why his ownership is so low. Don’t be afraid to get in early on him.
Braxton Berrios, WR, New York Jets ($3,900 – 0.5%) – If you’re looking for some more savings, how about taking a shot on Braxton Berrios? Through two weeks, Berrios has 18 targets and 12 receptions for 124 yards. Not world-beating numbers by any means, but Zach Wilson loves targeting this guy. Berrios only played 43 snaps in Week 2 and was targeted 11 times! He’s got the 7th highest hog rate in the NFL per Player Profiler. He’s got a higher WOPR than Chris Godwin, Adam Thielen, and Julio Jones. He’s probably more of a cash game play, but if he falls into the endzone he’ll easily return value on his $3,900 price tag.
