Welcome to the Week 15 Expected Fantasy Points Report! With a spot in the fantasy championship likely on the line this week, you don’t want to start the wrong guy. Find out exactly who is the valuable opportunities you need to finish your season strong.
The Wolf’s Rest of the Season Rankings and Week 15 Rankings are great sources to gauge a specific player’s value.
If you have any questions or feedback, let me know @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!
All data in this article uses full PPR scoring. A sample of the data through Week 13 is pictured. The PDF hides the weekly data for Weeks 1-9 to save space, but all data is still factored into the season averages. For the full data, click the links below.
*DOWNLOAD The Expected Fantasy Points Report – Week 15 2020 – PDF*
**DOWNLOAD THE EXCEL VERSION!**
Expected Fantasy Points
I built the model based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (xFP). A player’s xFP is calculated based on the value of each target or carry, using historical data attributes that correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored. You can find a more detailed breakdown of how this works here.
Expected Fantasy Points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. We can then subtract the player’s actual fantasy points scored to arrive at the difference, a key metric.
How to Interpret Expected Fantasy Points
The difference between expected and actual fantasy points comes from two sources:
Talent/Situation
We would expect the most talented players in the NFL to score more fantasy points than their expected fantasy points. That’s pretty obvious since xFP is based on the averages of all players. Also, a given coach or scheme might lead to a sustainable difference in actual over expected points. A carry in Kyle Shanahan’s offense will typically produce more points than a carry in Adam Gase’s offense. A carry behind an elite offensive line would be more valuable than a poor one.
These are all sustainable ways for a player to consistently outperform or underperform their expected points. Because of these differences between players, we should not assume that the difference between expected and actual points will always regress to zero. In other words, don’t blindly buy any player with a negative difference. Don’t sell every player with a positive difference.
Luck
The main reason to use expected fantasy points is to identify players who are experiencing very bad or very good luck. Unlike the previous differences, luck will even out over a long period. We want to buy players who are having bad luck and sell players who are having good luck.
Separating differences that are sustainable from differences due to luck can be tricky. It’s not an exact science. However, most players will score within a few points per game of their expected fantasy points for the season. The players with the largest differences are the ones most likely to be benefitting or suffering from luck.
Week 14 Expected Fantasy Points Leaders
Potential League Winners
At this point in the season, you probably have a good idea of who you want to start. However, you should still prepare for the unexpected.
Wide Receiver
A few surprising names on the Week 14 xFP leaders list include Keelan Cole, Rashard Higgins, Nelson Agholar, and Cole Beasley. Would I feel great about plugging any of these guys into my lineup at the most important time of the year? Not exactly, but if you’re desperate in a deeper league and need a plug and play WR, all of these guys saw excellent volume in Week 14.
At the very least, you might consider picking one of these guys up if you don’t have great depth. While they all have the potential to bust, each of the four receivers has at least two solid xFP outputs in their last three games. If you get desperate, they should at least have a good shot to get solid volume in the fantasy playoffs.
Running Back
While you can find a wide receiver who probably won’t kill you, running back is a different story. Jeff Wilson was the only running back in the top 30 of xFP in Week 14 who might be available in your league. He’s probably worth a stash, especially since Mostert is less than 100%.
Outside of Wilson, make sure to load up on running back handcuffs if you have extra bench space. At this point in the year, any running back getting significant volume is taken, so your best backup plan is probably to own your handcuffs in case you’re in desperate need of a spot start. Guys like Jamaal Williams, Carlos Hyde, and Tony Pollard are available in some leagues and have significant upside if anything happens to the starter.
