2020 Fantasy Football Workload Report: Week 11 Snaps, Targets, Touches, Air Yards, Advanced Usage Analytics - Roto Street Journal
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2020 Fantasy Football Workload Report: Week 11 Snaps, Targets, Touches, Air Yards, Advanced Usage Analytics

Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy football success. The Fantasy Football Workload Report was created to help visualize the crucial snaps, targets, touches, air yards, and other advanced usage metrics in an easily digestible PDF.

The Workload Report is broken into three distinct sections: opportunity, production, and results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and find out where these coveted fantasy points are coming from every week for every team. I envision that these categories will stay the same throughout the season, but some of the specific stats may change as I continue to fine-tune this.

Make sure you read the Week 1 Workload Report for an introduction to some of the categories included.

This week I decided to shorten up the PDF version of the report, as I only sorted per position in some of the main categories. Don’t worry, for all of you data nerds I am still including an excel version of this so that you can dig into everything yourself.

In addition to the Weekly Tiers (scroll down to the bottom of the article), I have included a lot more analysis and screenshots from the report on different categories of players that stuck out to me. Hopefully, this will help you find actionable ways to read the report.

Any feedback you have, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and we can talk shop!

The Workload Report: Week 11

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

As we narrow in on the fantasy playoffs, I decided to do my analysis on the workload report this week on a team-by-team basis. As we continue into the depths of the fantasy playoff rounds, I will continue to tailor my analysis to those of you who still have big money on the line!

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had a down week offensively (to their standards) in Week 11 against the Seahawks, but it appears that Kenyan Drake has taken back over control of the backfield. Drake out-touched and out-targeted Chase Edmonds, and I would expect more of the same in Week 12 against New England. Both of Larry Fitzgerald’s big offensive outputs have come against the weak Seahawks secondary, so I wouldn’t read too much into his 8 catch, 62-yard showing.

Atlanta Falcons

Todd Gurley continues to be very touchdown dependent in 2020, and in Week 11 against a stout Saints front 7, he only accumulated 3.9 fantasy points. He is always eligible for a 1-yard touchdown punch-in, but he will be tough to stomach as a starter in a negative game script. Even though the Falcons have come out and said that Olamide Zaccheaus is to Julio Jones what Christian Blake is to Calvin Ridley, neither of these guys have shown up in the games that they were supposed to the last two weeks. If Julio sits this week, I would still feel more comfortable starting Russell Gage who saw 12 targets against the Saints.

Baltimore Ravens

Update: Ravens vs Steelers moved to Sunday

All aboard the Gus Edwards bus, now that Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins find themselves on the COVID-19 list. Be careful of the Thanksgiving chalk with Edwards, as the DFS slate is sizing up to be one where value won’t be extremely necessary to fit in the studs. Justice Hill should have a bigger role, but it will be hard to predict so I would give the upgrade to Lamar Jackson to carry most of the load. Will we get to see vintage 2019 Lamar Jackson on Thursday night against the Steelers? Marquise Brown continues to disappoint (only seeing 3 targets for a goose egg in Wk 11), while Mark Andrews is one of a few consistent bright spots in a very bad tight end season.

Buffalo Bills

Since Week 7, Zack Moss has seen more snaps and rushing attempts than Devin Singletary and also is getting all of the high-value touches at the goal line. Kudos to fantasy owners who stashed him on your bench and didn’t give up on the rookie. Stop sleeping on Cole Beasley! As long as the Bills project to be in a pass-heavy game script, it’s clear that Beasley will be a huge PPR asset. He shouldn’t be available, but if you are in a league with a small bench and he’s sitting out there on waivers make sure to snag him up.

Carolina Panthers

It’s important to note that Carolina is one of the most condensed teams when it comes to fantasy production. They have four players who essentially score all of their fantasy points every week: Mike Davis, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel. This kind of condensed production is important to consider when making start/sit decisions in the playoff stretch. Samuel has arguably been the most explosive Panther over the last month, as they continue to use him in a variety of ways. He is averaging over 25% of Carolina’s PPR points since Week 7, on a 20%+ target share and a noteworthy 10% rushing attempt share. Samuel is probably a guy who you end up leaving on your bench every week, but it looks like his production is going to be consistent through the end of the season.

Chicago Bears

It’s really challenging trying to find a bright spot in the Bears offense at this point in the season. The backfield is a mess, the quarterback situation isn’t even worth spending any time on, and unfortunately, the talented receiver room has been the most affected. If this was any other team, we would be jumping up and down seeing that Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Darnell Mooney all have an air yard share in the mid 20% range over the last month. Unfortunately, it’s the Bears so a lot of these air yards end up landing on the ground more than 5 yards away from the receiver. Just stay away from Chicago until further notice.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is out for the season and based on the early reports of this injury it seems like the beginning of 2021 might be in jeopardy too. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Tee Higgins’ owners who were starting to get used to the consistent rookie connection. Since Week 7, Higgins has seen the same amount of targets as AJ Green, but has scored almost 3X as many fantasy points. Tyler Boyd continues to be a target hog himself and is hauling in around 30% of the team’s receiving yards. Jury is out on whether Brandon Allen will be able to step into the big shoes that Burrow left, and that’s a big bummer. From a running back standpoint, Samaje Perine continues to eat at the Giovanni Bernard workload since Joe Mixon has been sidelined with an injury. I don’t think anybody is worth starting in the Bengals backfield until we see what Allen or Ryan Finley have to offer.

Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb looks completely healthy and has had back-to-back weeks with long explosive runs. For some reason, Kevin Stefanski keeps rolling out Kareem Hunt for the goal-line carries even though Chubb has proven to be the more gifted runner as of late. Given Cleveland’s affinity for the run game, if you have them you should be starting either of these guys. From a passing standpoint, Odell Beckham Jr’s injury has been followed up by a month of bad weather games for the Browns. These games have been really low scoring affairs, so most people are ready to be out Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins. Higgins leads the team in Air Yards since OBJ got hurt, so I would expect him to be a good option this weekend when Cleveland heads to Jacksonville for some nicer weather and a more normal football game.

Dallas Cowboys

It’s been a roller coaster for fantasy owners who have Dallas Cowboys in 2020. Through the first month of the season, this was an explosive offense, but then Dak got injured in Week 5 and it’s been all downhill from there.

The bye week seemed to help Dallas though, and they performed well from a fantasy standpoint against the Vikings. I would be wary of Ezekiel Elliott who hasn’t looked right from a conditioning standpoint (potential COVID fog?) and now gets to play on a short week. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are happy to see Andy Dalton as they both saw target and yardage bumps in Week 11. After a couple of quiet weeks, Dalton Schultz turned 6 targets into 25 yards and a touchdown which was a nice surprise for DFS players churning the bottom of the barrel. I think the Cowboys are a good team to target against the Washington Football Team on Thanksgiving.

Denver Broncos

While Melvin Gordon (15 carries – 84 yards) got into the end zone twice in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins, Phillip Lindsay (16-82) essentially matched his production on the ground. The scoring could easily go Lindsay’s way in Week 12, so I feel good about starting him as a flex option if needed. KJ Hamler has seen 26 targets over the last three games and is probably still available on your waiver wires. Go change that now. It was the other two receivers who saw the opportunity through the air in Week 11, as Jerry Jeudy (132 Air Yards) and Tim Patrick (122 Air Yards) both saw 8 targets compared to Hamler’s 6 targets. For those of you who lost money on the long Patrick completion as time expired, I’m sorry that’s a tough beat.

Detroit Lions

The Lions have been ravaged by injuries lately, and there haven’t been many bright spots that have bubbled up because of it. Both Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson miserably failed with D’Andre Swift out in Week 11. Meanwhile, Marvin Jones, Marvin Hall, and Quintez Cephus combined for 76 receiving yards with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola sidelined. TJ Hockenson has been the most consistent Lions player this season, but that’s even saying a lot as he has largely underwhelmed compared to preseason expectations. They face a poor Texans defense on Thanksgiving morning, so if I had to pick, I would target Peterson (who I’m hoping they were cautious about in Week 11 knowing the upcoming short week), and Jones (who at least has a 40% TD share since Week 7), if Swift remains sidelined.

Green Bay Packers

For the greater part of the first half of the season, the only person Aaron Rodgers threw to was Davante Adams and after seeing Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumble the game away in overtime to the Colts, I’m starting to see why. Even though he had the big blunder in OT, MVS has actually put up a couple of good showings with Allen Lazard out. Even with Lazard back in the lineup in Week 11, MVS still saw 114 Air Yards and 6 targets. We know how particular Rodgers is about trust in his receivers, so it will be interesting to see if MVS gets the icicle treatment against the Bears. If not, that will be a positive sign for his ceiling come fantasy playoff time.

Houston Texans

When healthy, Jordan Akins has been a bright spot for the Tight End position this season and has probably paid some dividends to Best Ball players who took a flyer on him in the last couple of rounds. Meanwhile, Duke Johnson has been very disappointing since David Johnson hit the IR. Johnson only has a 10% targets share since Week 7 and really has not looked like the explosive change of pace player who tilted so many fantasy owners over the years in Cleveland. He gets a great matchup against a horrid Detroit team this week, so I’m not giving up on his opportunity yet.

Indianapolis Colts

While Philip Rivers is no 2019 Ryan Tannehill, it sure does look like Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be this year’s AJ Brown. Rookie receivers have historically been better over the second half of their inaugural season, and Pittman has come on strong lately as TY Hilton has continued to turn into dust. He made the most of his 3 targets this weekend turning them into 66 yards and a touchdown. He has a 24% Air Yard share over the last month and is turning into one of Rivers’ most trusted options.

Meanwhile, the Colts backfield is more frustrating than ever. It was reported on Sunday morning that Nyheim Hines would see most of the Indianapolis workload, and then he proceeded to get out-carried by Jonathan Taylor 22 to 6. As I said earlier in the season, I think this offense can sustain two running backs. I would continue to start Taylor if you have him and keep slotting in Hines as a viable flex play.

Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson is a bad, bad man. Against the vaunted Steelers defense, Robinson saw 100% of the team’s rushing attempts. This isn’t out of the norm for the undrafted rookie as he has around 95% of the team’s total rushing yards since Week 7. Even though he didn’t find the end zone on Sunday, Robinson proved that he is matchup proof and due to the opportunity I would say he is a Top 10 RB for the rest of the season.

With Laviska Shenault out, the target share was pretty spread out for Jacksonville. DJ Chark led the team with 8 targets and a 27% air yard share. If Shenault misses again, I really like Chris Conley as a DFS punt option.

Kansas City Chiefs

All Tyreek Hill wants is some respect on his name, and while he is known for his big-play ability and game-breaking speed, he is starting to become a bit of a target hog. Hill is boasting a 30% target share since Week 7 and saw 14 more targets on Sunday night against the Raiders. For those of you that paid up and spent an early-round draft pick on Travis Kelce this season, bravo to you. Kelce has been the equivalent to a WR1 this season, and is easily dominating the rest of the tight end field.

After a couple of concerning weeks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks to have a stronghold on the Chiefs running back room. He had twice the amount of targets and carries that LeVeon Bell did in Week 11, and also treated fantasy owners to a pair of touchdowns. I would still hold onto Bell in case something happens to CEH, but for now, it looks tough to trust his role on offense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is everything that you want in a franchise quarterback, and it’s a damn shame that there are no Los Angeles Chargers fans out there to root for him. He has proven to us all that he can support two fantasy-relevant receivers in Mike Williams (122 air yards and 1 TD) and Keenan Allen (19 targets and 145 yards receiving), and now looks like he will be getting Austin Ekeler back sooner rather than later. Wheels up on all the Chargers for the rest of the season, they might be the key to a lot of playoff success.

Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp started out on fire in the Rams Week 11 matchup with the Bucs and Robert Woods ended the game on the exact same hot streak. When that happens for Los Angeles, they are tough to contain and the Bucs found that out the hard way on Monday night. Kupp had 15 targets, and Woods tagged on 13. Fantasy owners had been down on Woods for a couple of weeks as it had started to become the Josh Reynolds show, but McVay and Goff turned to their studs when the bright lights were on. Load these guys up confidently moving forward.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have been an interesting team to analyze this season, and it seems like I have always been a week or two behind the ball. Josh Jacobs started the season out hot, but has quickly settled into the middle of the pack of RBs. Darren Waller has had some huge blow-up weeks followed by a couple of games where he’s gone missing. Surprisingly enough, one of the most consistent Raiders of late is Nelson Agholor. He has always been a deep ball receiver, and his 0.63 RACR is encouraging for fantasy owners. Agholor is seeing 28% of the Derk Carr’s Air Yards, and has 5 touchdowns over the last 7 weeks.

Miami Dolphins

I think there is a real cause for concern coming out of Miami right now. To start, Brian Flores pulled his franchise quarterback out of the game on Sunday against the Broncos because he felt that Ryan Fitzpatrick gave them a better shot at a comeback. Let that settle in for a little bit. On top of that, the Dolphins receivers just aren’t great at getting separation, and it seems that Tua is having a hard time adjusting to NFL cornerbacks. The Dolphins have been one of the better surprise stories of the 2020 season, but Fitzmagic’s early-season heroics and their stellar defensive play has been what has carried them to this point.

Minnesota Vikings

When the Vikings are running hot, they are a fantasy goldmine. Similar to the Panthers, the Vikings have an extremely condensed fantasy production amongst their three studs in Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Unfortunately, the Vikings have one of the most run-heavy offenses and their game scripts have been largely opponent-dependent. In week’s where it looks like the Vikings are going to need to keep up, then Thielen and Jefferson are some of the best options in the league, however, we can easily see 3 targets from each and a 40 point Cook performance when the Vikings find the driver seat early. I would continue to try to play the game script “game” with the Vikings offense.

New England Patriots

I was prepared to write up the incredible 39% target share that Jakobi Myers had seen through Weeks 7 through 10, however, he proceeded to dud out for 3 targets and 38 yards on Sunday against the Texans. I am going to bank on his previous couple of week’s performance when I view his rest of season outlook and am confident that he will be Cam Newton’s most reliable option down the stretch.

Another mid-season bright spot that has popped up from the Patriots is Damien Harris, who has gotten more than 50% of the team’s rushing yardage since Week 7. The Patriots backfield has long been a headache to try and figure out, but we know now that Harris can be counted on for the yardage on the ground. We will however continue to be disappointed when Newton or James White vulture touchdowns from him, so be aware of the lack of ceiling on Harris.

New Orleans Saints

All the 2020 season needed at the tight end position was for one to start at quarterback. All joking aside, I am hoping some of you ESPN and Fanduel players were able to take advantage of the rules with Taysom Hill last week against the Falcons. I would assume that both sites are going to course-correct themselves, but I don’t think we should shy away from Hill just yet.

It was evident that Sean Payton wants Hill to air it out, and that directly benefitted Michael Thomas who had his best game of the season. He looked like the Thomas of 2019 and was snagging almost everything that came his way. It’s tough to blame the guy on a couple of drops since he’s gotten so used to snagging low-velocity balls from Drew Brees this season.

On the flip side, Alvin Kamara was held without a catch for the first time in his career. I am not losing faith in Kamara after one down week, and I am betting on his talent to continue to lead your fantasy team through the playoffs.

New York Giants

If Wayne Gallman is available in your leagues, I think he is a good flex pickup as the Giants have a good fantasy schedule for the end of the season. Gallman has seen a 26% usage rate since Week 7 and with Devonta Freeman on IR, he should maintain the workhorse role. The same can be said for Daniel Jones, who a lot of people may have given up on this season. Jones faces the Bengals, Seahawks, and Cardinals over the next 3 weeks and is a nice streaming option if he is available on your league’s waivers.

New York Jets

After missing a big chunk of games this season, Denzel Mims has come into his own over the last couple of weeks. Mims has been on the field for over 90% of the Jets snaps since Week 7, and has a healthy 24% target share. Mims looks like the star of the Jets future and represents a dynasty buy option, especially if New York can land Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.

Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz has been a huge disappointment this season, and it’s really hard to remember his 2018 season where he finished third in the MVP voting. That quarterback is gone, and in his place is an interception prone guy who frankly looks pretty spooked out there. He is starting to get more of his weapons back with Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Jalen Reagor all back from injury, but I can’t see myself trusting any of them until Wentz snaps out of it. If Wentz can’t do well this week against Seattle it might be time to drop him.

Pittsburgh Steelers

I don’t think there is a more talented trio of receivers in the NFL than what the Steelers roll out most Sundays. Chase Claypool is a touchdown machine and has scored 10 touchdowns in 10 career games. Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in almost every game that he hasn’t exited early from. And JuJu Smith-Schuster is still a yardage monster on low aDOT targets in this Pittsburgh offense. If you are playing DFS, I think it’s a viable strategy to roll two of these guys out in your lineups every week. Fortunately for us, their fantasy production has been pretty consistent as well. Ben Roethlisberger is spreading the ball around and his stud pass-catchers are all performing at a high level.

Seattle Seahawks

Getting Chris Carson back may help cure some of what the Seahawks have been dealing with lately after losing two of their last three games. Seattle has proven that they don’t have much behind Carson, and the passing game has suffered in recent weeks because of it. If Carson is back in Week 12, look for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to have big games as their offense becomes a little more balanced. It also presents a nice buy-low spot for Carson, as I would expect the Seahawks to try and overcompensate for a Philadelphia defense that may be hyper-focused on defending the pass. I love Seattle in Carson’s first week back.

San Francisco 49ers

Add Brandon Aiyuk’s name to the list of rookie wide receivers who look like they have a bright future in this league. Outside of him, it’s really tough to gauge how the rest of this offense is trending lately because we haven’t seen the Niners be able to keep everyone healthy to roll out any sort of consistent offense. The good news is Raheem Mostert looks to be coming back from IR, so we should be starting to see the San Francisco offense get one step closer to its former self this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dial-up the roommate narrative because Antonio Brown is making a dent in the Tampa Bay target share. Brown led the Bucs in targets and yards on Monday night against the Rams and looked to be Tom Brady’s most confident outlet when pressured. Brady loves something about this crazy man, and that’s good for fantasy owners.

It seems like Chris Godwin is going to be hit the hardest by Brown as his 69 Air Yards were almost half of what Mike Evans and Brown each saw from Brady. We know that they can spread it around to all their weapons, so I wouldn’t think about dropping any of these guys, but Evans and Godwin are definitely up for discussion in weeks moving forward when it comes to your WR2/Flex spots vs. the bench.

Tennessee Titans

In the running back position, the Tennessee Titans have one grown man in Derrick Henry and out the outside in the wide receiver position, the Titans have another grown man in AJ Brown. That’s really all there is to write about the Titans. Regardless of opportunity or game script, both Brown and Henry have multiple plays a game where they look bigger, faster, and stronger than the rest of the defense. The Titans have been somewhat inconsistent on offense, but when they do score it’s usually going to be through these studs.

Washington Football Team

Antonio Gibson has quickly become one of my favorite running backs in the league while Terry McLaurin was already one of my favorite receivers coming into this season. It’s a real shame the Football Team is battling through quarterback issues because they have two budding stars in the league. Let’s hit on Gibson a little further. He has seen a 25+% usage rate since Week 7 has coupled that with a 25+% PPR share. He is still ceding targets to JD McKissic, but Gibson still is good for a couple per game and it looks like Washington is really starting to trust him near the goal line. It may have taken a little longer than anticipated, but Gibson is paying off for fantasy owners that held strong on him.

That does it for my Week 11 workload report analysis. I hope you enjoyed the team-by-team approach. I will try and cater the rest of season analysis mostly to the teams and spots that matter for fantasy owners in the playoffs.

Author

  • Engineer by day, Fantasy Football addict by night. Loves digging deep into the nitty-gritty to try and build a masterpiece from the numbers. When not contributing to RSJ, you'll find Jon in almost every Best Ball lobby possible. Twitter: @JonBoyBeats #showmethedata

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