2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 4 - Roto Street Journal
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2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 4

The Workload Report is broken up into three distinct sections: Opportunity, Production, and Results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and find out where these coveted fantasy points are coming from every week for every team. I envision that these categories will stay the same throughout the season, but some of the specific stats may change as I continue to fine-tune this.

Make sure you read the Week 1 Workload Report for an introduction to some of the categories included.

This week I decided to shorten up the PDF version of the report, as I only sorted per position in some of the main categories. Don’t worry, for all of you data nerds I am still including an excel version of this so that you can dig into everything yourself.

In addition to the Weekly Rankings (scroll down to the bottom of the article), I have included a lot more analysis and screenshots from the report on different categories of players that stuck out to me. Hopefully, this will help you find actionable ways to read the report.

Any feedback you have, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and we can talk shop!

The Workload Report: Week 4

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

Week 4 Fantasy All-Stars

Joe Mixon was a DFS darling on Sunday and also paid off huge for season-long managers who battled off the late week injury tag and started the Bengals stud RB. His 17% target share is a 10% increase from his Weeks 1-3 average and is a welcome sight in a Cincinnati offense that looks better every week.

George Kittle and Robert Tonyan have drawn comparisons this season and both of them exploded for their teams in Week 4. Kittle caught all 15 targets and ended the game with a 54% receiving yard share (183 yards), while Tonyan had a strong 98-yard output made even stronger by a three-TD scoring effort.

Dalvin Cook continued his strong start to the 2020 fantasy football season on Sunday racking up 28.6 PPR points on 130 yards rushing and 2 scores. He has been averaging 32% of the Vikings PPR points this season and once again cleared that mark accounting for 35% in Week 4.

Saved by the Endzone

Kareem Hunt is one of the biggest winners in Week 4 due to the unfortunate Nick Chubb MCL injury, however his fantasy output on Sunday was somewhat sub-par. Hunt was outgained on the ground by both D’Ernest Johnson and Odell Beckham Jr. but was able to find paydirt twice. Moving forward Hunt is a Top 10 RB option given Cleveland’s affinity for the run game. The Falcons couldn’t do much against the Packers defense on Monday night. Todd Gurley only ran for 57 yards (and this was 73% of the team’s total), but he also got into the end zone twice for a nice fantasy output. I don’t think we see many more games where Ridley (0-0) and Julio (4-32, injury) get shut down as much as they did by the Packers secondary, so I am weary about Gurley moving forward. This might have been near his ceiling game.

A Touchdown away from Breaking the Slate

This Dallas Cowboys may prove to be one of the most tiliting offenses for fantasy owners this season. We knew this going in, and Dallas has proven that their plethora of weapons is for real, but Ezekiel Elliott not scoring a touchdown on a day where the Cowboys scored 38 points is the ultimate example. Of course, the Cowboys trailed for most of the game forcing Dak to throw for over 500 yards and 4 touchdowns, but Zeke could have really blown up by getting a touchdown in this shootout.

Terry McLaurin gets a QB change this week as Washington has decided to roll out Kyle Allen instead of Dwayne Haskins. McLaurin has proven to almost be QB and matchup-proof through 4 weeks, as evidence by his 118-yard performance against the Ravens in week 4, and his 27% target share is among the league leaders.

Biggest Week 4 Breakouts

Odell Beckham Jr. looks a lot more explosive this year and appears to be fully recovered from the groin injury that plagued him during the 2019 season. This explosiveness was on display during his game-clinching 50-yard rushing touchdown on Sunday against the Cowboys. In all, OBJ accounted for 34% of his team’s PPR points in Week 4, which was a 19% increase from his Weeks 1-3 output.

Welcome to the party, DJ Chark! The third-year receiver busted out for 95 yards and two scores on Sunday against the Bengals (26% PPR share increase). If Jacksonville wants to be competitive this season, they need to force-feed their top target.

Biggest Week 4 Busts

A couple of early-season fantasy studs came crashing down to earth in Week 4. Calvin Ridley put up a goose egg against Jaire Alexander and the Packers, while Tyler Lockett only caught two passes from Russell Wilson and got out-targetted by Greg Olsen, DK Metcalf, David Moore, and Chris Carson. Both of these guys should be fine for the rest of the season and I wouldn’t sweat too hard about their outcomes this week.

It’s amazing to see Alvin Kamara show up near the top of the Week 4 “bust” list in a game where he still scored over 20 fantasy points. That just proves how dominant of a season the stud RB for the Saints has put together through four weeks.

Dominating the Dominator Rating

Allen Robinson has really exploded for the Bears since the Trubisky benching. In a game where Chicago only scored 11 points, Robinson saw a 24% target share, a 41% receiving yard share, and scored the team’s only touchdown. Wheels up on Allen Robinson!

N’Keal Harry continues to perform well in the fantasy box score, even though some of his on-field performances have been questionable for stretches. Harry caught the Patriots only touchdown on Sunday which really boosts his dominator rating. I’m not confident in Harry and think that he figures to be a frustrating start/sit decision all year.

Air Yards = Future Production

So far this season, we have talked in depth about Air Yards, so I think that most people now have a good grasp on how to utilize this stat. This week I introduced a new stat to the worksheet for receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). This was developed by Josh Hermsmeyer and measures how many receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at them.

Let’s use this stat to talk about Marquise Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Both of these players are Top 10 in Air Yard share on the season, and but had middle-of-the-road RACR, hovering just north of 0.5. This week, they both posted a RACR under 0.4, which shows that they just aren’t turning these air yards into real yards. While I expect both of these players to trend upwards as the season progresses, due to the amount of volume they are seeing, they will be real boom-bust candidates until further notice.

On the flip side, we can also use this to determine if players who are seeing a lot of air yards can continue to produce at an efficient level. Stefon Diggs has had a RACR above 1.0 all season, and on Sunday when he saw 103 air yards he was able to turn that into 115 receiving yards. This is an example of a guy we can feel confident about on a week to week basis because he is seeing the volume and producing efficiently.

Receiving Alpha Dogs

The other metric I added to the flowchart this week is another one created by Hermsmeyer, which is Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). This combines target share and air yard share into a more actionable metric.

We want to go after players who are seeing a lot of targets and a lot of potential yards. Adam Thielen has met every expectation that the fantasy world had for him entering the 2020 season. He is seeing 33% of the Vikings targets and 46% of their air yards and has produced 4 touchdowns through four weeks.

Keenan Allen has done much of the same for the Los Angeles Chargers and seems to be loving his new quarterback, Justin Herbert. Allen once again reached double-digit targets (12) on Sunday and is still probably being overlooked in some fantasy leagues because he has only caught 1 touchdown. If you can find an owner who is looking to trade, this seems like a good buy-low moment.

Rushing Yard Alpha Dogs

We expected David Montgomery to see a lion’s share of the load for the Chicago Bears after Tarik Cohen went down with a season-ending injury. However, we didn’t expect his 96% rushing share to only equal 27 yards. If you haven’t noticed, this Indianapolis Colts defense is for real (allowing a combined 28 points over the last three weeks), so I think we can continue to think positively about Montgomery. He does face another tough matchup in Week 5 on Thursday night against the Bucs.

Speaking of the Bucs, it is really hard to get a read on their backfield, but in a week when Leonard Fournette didn’t play due to injury and LeSean McCoy left the game early, Ronald Jones saw 97% of the team’s rushing yards. Knowing how Bruce Arians like to manage the backfield, I’m not ready to crown him as the Tampa Bay bell-cow.

Budding Bell-Cows

Damien Harris was a late-week promotion off the Injured Reserve list and he showed up well in his first game of the season. Harris only played 31% of the Patriots snaps against the Chiefs but accounted for 49% of rushing attempts and 54% of the rushing yards. Harris saw no targets, so his ceiling will be limited by James White and Rex Burkead’s involvement in the passing game, but if the Patriots can get healthy and get Cam Newton back, Harris should shine in positive game scripts.

Devin Singletary continues to be an integral part of the Bills offense and he was without his backfield running mate (Zack Moss) again in Week 4. Singletary saw 75% of the Bills rushing attempts and 89% of their rushing yards. He also saw 6 targets this week and has now seen over 5 targets in 3 out of the 4 games this season for Buffalo. Moss is the more prominent pass-catcher, so we will monitor those numbers when he returns, but for now, Singletary is a reliable RB2 to load up in your lineups.

Losing their Grip on RB1 status

Josh Jacobs lit up the fantasy world in Week 1 with three touchdowns against the hapless Panthers run defense. However, he has been on the decline in usage since that game. He has matchups with the Chiefs, Bucs, Browns, Chargers, and Broncos for the next six weeks (including a bye), so this might be a time to sell high on the Raiders RB1.

I am not too concerned about Elliott’s usage decline as he has one of the safest floors in all of football, and although Kareem Hunt and Myles Gaskin saw usage drops in Week 4, they are still the clear-cut lead backs on their teams.

Falling out of Favor in the Receiving Corps

The New York Jets are hopeless with Adam Gase at the helm, and while Jamison Crowder’s week 4 targets once again hit double digits, his overall usage significantly decreased. It is hard to trust any Jets player in this horrible offense.

We already talked about the outlier games for Ridley and Lockett, so I am not concerned for either of them.

Logan Thomas has been a disappointment this year from an efficiency standpoint all season and then saw his usage decrease in Week 4. Unfortunately for DFS players, the QB change to Kyle Allen should provide yet another reason to fire up the low-priced tight end this week. I’m close to giving up hope, but the cheap tight end upside is still there for at least one more week.

Honorable Work Ethic

It’s tough to criticize these iron men who are stepping out on the field pretty much anytime their offense runs a play. A couple of these guys turned in disappointing weeks (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Darius Slayton, Zach Ertz), but the opportunity is clearly there.

The Workload Report: Week 4

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

UPDATED RANKINGS

Running Back

Runaway Bell-Cows

  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Dalvin Cook
  4. Derrick Henry
  5. Aaron Jones (Jamaal Williams involvement mainly due to no healthy GB pass-catchers)
  6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  7. Miles Sanders
  8. Joe Mixon
  9. Chris Carson
  10. Josh Jacobs
  11. James Conner
  12. James Robinson
  13. Mike Davis
  14. Melvin Gordon
  15. David Montgomery
  16. Devin Singletary
  17. Myles Gaskin
  18. Joshua Kelley

Bell-cows Dealing with a 3rd Down/Goal-Line Vulture

  1. Kareem Hunt
  2. Antonio Gibson
  3. Jonathan Taylor
  4. David Johnson
  5. Todd Gurley
  6. Kenyan Drake
  7. Ronald Jones

Running Back by Committee (RBBC) w/ Fantasy Potential

  1. Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson
  2. Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, Mark Ingram
  3. Damien Harris, James White, Rex Burkhead

Untouchable backfield until further notice

  1. Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers
  2. Adrian Peterson, D’Andre Swift, Kerryon Johnson
  3. Devonta Freeman, Wayne Gallman, Dion Lewis
  4. Frank Gore, Lamical Perine

Wide Receivers

Alpha Target Hogs

  1. DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Amari Cooper
  3. Davante Adams
  4. Michael Thomas
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Adam Thielen
  7. Terry McLaurin
  8. Allen Robinson
  9. Kenny Golladay
  10. Odell Beckham Jr.
  11. Will Fuller
  12. Jamison Crowder

Receiving Room Busting with Talent

  1. Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf
  2. Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus
  3. Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman
  4. Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley
  5. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
  6. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller
  7. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool
  8. Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel
  9. Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, AJ Green
  10. DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole
  11. Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd

Fantasy Breakout Waiting to Happen

  1. Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford
  2. Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead
  3. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler
  4. Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel

Tough to Count on as your WR3

  1. Darius Slayton, Golden Tate
  2. Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards
  3. TY Hilton, Zach Pascal
  4. Corey Davis, Cameron Batson (assuming Humphries and Brown are out)
  5. Greg Ward, John Hightower, Travis Fulgham

Tight Ends

Every Week Baller

  1. George Kittle
  2. Travis Kelce
  3. Darren Waller
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. Evan Engram
  6. Jonnu Smith
  7. Hunter Henry
  8. Dalton Schultz
  9. Robert Tonyan Jr.
  10. TJ Hockenson
  11. Noah Fant

Fantasy Relevant

  1. Zach Ertz
  2. Mike Gesicki
  3. Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett
  4. Hayden Hurst
  5. Jimmy Graham
  6. Eric Ebron

Fantasy Potential

  1. Greg Olsen, Will Dissly
  2. Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle
  3. Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate
  4. Logan Thomas
  5. Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft
  6. Drew Sample
  7. Austin Hooper, David Njoku

Out there to Block

  1. Chris Herndon
  2. Jordan Akins, Darren Fells
  3. Dan Arnold
  4. Tyler Eifert
  5. Kyle Rudolph
  6. Ian Thomas
  7. Adam Trautman (assuming Cook is out)
  8. Ryan Izzo

One Comment

  1. Doug

    October 7, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    Thoughts on Justin Jefferson?

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