In the stuff of fantasy Wet Dreams, Odell Beckham is heading to Cleveland. The elite talent’s been getting it done even with the horrific Giants, and is now in the perfect spot to realize his true ceiling. Most notably, Beckham’s “Surrounding Talent” score skyrockets from a 9/15 up to a near-perfect 14/15 — yes, Baker Mayfield is that stark of an upgrade over Eli Manning. Plus, both Freddie Kitchens and Todd Monken are offensive wizards and disciples of the deep ball who’ll utilize Beckham to perfection. Indeed, after missing 21 games over five seasons — mostly of the soft tissue variety — Beckham’s shaky health makes him a Risk. Still, truly no other WR comes with a higher ceiling.
Though this may be the first time this has ever been typed, Cleveland is truly the perfect change of scenery for Beckham. No WR is as explosive, both in his routes and after the catch. Beckham can blow through every layer of the defense with ease, and remains a perfect 30/30 Talent-wise.
More importantly, every drop of potential will be squeezed from Odell’s elite skillset in Cleveland. Mayfield is the most notable upgrade, as the fiery, ultra-competitive QB delivers the ball with accuracy and touch at every level. This is especially true of his deep-ball, as Mayfield graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No.2 “Deep Passer.”
This is especially important with Monken and Kitchens at the helm. Between Monken’s 23-years of “Air Raid” roots and Kitchens’ Air Coryell upbringing, these two are disciples of the deep ball. In fact, despite a shitty rotation of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston, Monken’s Bucs led the league in passing yards (5125 total, 320.3 per game), with both QBs ranking first and second in completed air yards per attempt (Fitzpatrick = 8.8; Winston = 8.4… next closest = Russell Wilson @ 7.3). Odell will FEAST in this “Coaching Scheme,” which grades a perfect 15/15 on our Stock Formula — 5 more points than his score in New York.
Usage-wise, Beckham faces more competition for targets, as Kitchens’ calling-card is spreading the wealth. Still, even if Beckham’s sheer volume takes a slight hit from his 10.3 tgts per game, the quality of that usage is skyrocketing with these new coaches. With an anticipated efficiency spike, Beckham loses just 1 point here, going from 23 to 22.
As mentioned, Beckhams risk remains a fairly low 7/10 due to the injury concerns. Still, when on the field, few are as consistent, as Odell has posted 10+ FPs in nearly 70% of his games (40 of 59 regular-season games, 68%).
And no one carries a higher ceiling, especially as a TD scorer. Only four players have 40+ receiving TDs since 2014, and they’re all elite:
Four players have 40+ receiving TDs since 2014 …
AB: 59 TDs in 76 games
Nuk: 45 TDs in 79 games
OBJ: 44 TDs in 59 games 👀
Evans: 40 TDs in 77 games🗣 Odell Beckham Jr. is the best wide receiver alive
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 23, 2019
Whether tracking the long ball, knifing through the entire defense after the catch, or using his body control in the Red Zone, Beckham is a true scoring machine. He most definitely gains a 5/5 Upside Bonus.
All-in-all, Beckham’s Fantasy Stock Score soars with the Browns, raising 6 total points from a 88 to 94. This sends him all the way up to my No.3 WR and No.11 overall on my latest Big Board. There’s truly no higher-ceiling WR in all of fantasy.
