Auction Domination: Biggest Fantasy Football Auction Value Busts On Yahoo and ESPN - Roto Street Journal
Player Stock Ticker
For the Best Breaking Fantasy Football News, Bookmark our Fantasy Stock Watch now: rotostreetjournal.com/stockwatch    

Auction Domination: Biggest Fantasy Football Auction Value Busts On Yahoo and ESPN

Hello my friends, this week we’re going to take a look at some of the most overpriced players in Yahoo and ESPN auction leagues based on where I have the player valued and where they do. Last week we looked at the biggest bargains on the same sites. As I noted last week, people tend to bid close to the prices that are set on the host site, so you should look to drop these players on others for the prices on their respective sites while you save your money for better values.

Yahoo Busts

Quarterback: Andrew Luck – $23 Yahoo ($10 my projection)

Andrew Luck has had issues with his shoulder this offseason and as of yet, still isn’t cleared to play in week 1 of the regular season. Even if we weren’t looking at possible missed games, you shouldn’t be paying $23 for any quarterback unless you’re guaranteed elite production (i.e. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady). I think there are enough other quarterbacks who can produce at the same level or higher than Luck, that any bid over $10 seems wasteful.

Running Back: Joe Mixon – $36 Yahoo ($11 my projection)

While Joe Mixon has undeniably looked good this preseason, there are still great questions surrounding whether or not he will even be the starter for a majority of the season (or any part of the season). There are too many mouths to feed in the running game and a poor offensive line in Cincinnati so investing $36 in Mixon means you believe he will be a top running back right from the jump this year and in general you should never pay for production that you haven’t seen unless you love to embrace risk. I’d pass on Mixon at this price point for sure.

Wide Receiver: Odell Beckham – $55 Yahoo ($29 my projection)

You can realistically insert any top wide receiver name here instead of Odell Beckham if you want. All the top wide receivers are over priced on Yahoo equivalent to their actual value for your team and as such, I recommend going heavy on the top talent running backs for your money and grabbing mid level bargains at wide receiver this year. That being said, if you insist on spending big at wide receiver, I’d rather go a few dollars more and get Antonio Brown or Julio Jones over Odell anyways.

Tight End: Travis Kelce – $33 Yahoo ($21 my projection)

Travis Kelce has proven to be quite a fantasy asset, especially since he is probably the #1 receiving target on the Chiefs this year with Jeremy Maclin no longer in town. However, Kelce has never shown himself to be a big touchdown producer and for this price, you can get a guy like Rob Gronkowski instead who can flat out win weeks for you with his touchdown tendencies. I like Kelce, just not as much as Yahoo.

ESPN Busts

Quarterback: Drew Brees – $13 ESPN ($8 my projection)

I really have no issue with spending $13 on Drew Brees here. I think Brees is likely to fall back a bit with the rest of the pack and rather than be a standout #3 behind Brady and Rodgers, I think he’s in the same conversation as guys like Derek Carr, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota this year. That being said, he has always been consistent and you know you’re going to get a lot of yards and touchdowns from Brees so even if he has a slight down year, you should be okay. I just had to pick somebody, and honestly, ESPN has pretty good bargain prices for most of their quarterbacks.

Running Back: Lamar Miller – $42 ESPN ($27 my projection)

While quarterbacks are definitely reasonably priced on ESPN, they tend to really pile on the dollars when projecting their top running backs (and receivers). I do not consider Lamar Miller a top running back this year. However,ESPN rates him 10th best at the position (above guys like Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Isaiah Crowell who I think all belong ahead of him) which you may agree with, but you still shouldn’t agree with the price. Whenever you are paying more than $40 for a player, that player should be a top talent and a borderline late first round, early second round pick. Lamar Miller is more like an early third round pick, even for people who like him, so he should be selling for about $10 less. I am not overly optimistic about the Texans offense (and Miller’s workload) so I wouldn’t advise chasing him beyond $30 and certainly not for $40+.

Wide Receiver: Doug Baldwin – $48 ESPN ($18 my projection)

I already said that top running backs as a whole were overpriced on ESPN and actually I think wide receivers are even more so. As I alluded to with Lamar Miller, you shouldn’t be paying over $40 for any player unless they are an elite talent and can make a huge difference for your team. By paying $48 for Doug Baldwin, you’re saying that he is worth approximately 25% of your entire team’s budget. That just seems a bit ridiculous to me. You can count on Doug Baldwin for at least 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns and, of course, he has shown the possibility of more in the touchdown department, but what is his ceiling really? The Seahawks are not a throw first team and Jimmy Graham is going to steal some touchdowns in the red zone. In order for Baldwin to earn a price of $48, he’d have to get at least 1,200-1,300 yards and 12 or more touchdowns. He’s not going to do that. There are so many receivers in the same range as Baldwin this year (like DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, etc.) that it doesn’t make sense to spend this kind of money unless you’re getting a proven game changer at the position.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski – $47 ESPN ($28 my projection)

Let’s be clear, I love Rob Gronkowski this year. As is always the case with him, if he stays healthy, he’s a game changer for your team. I like him because this year he is (usually) going for a price that reasonably accounts for his injury risk. That is not the case on ESPN. If you pay $47 for Gronk, you are getting a game changer when healthy, but he needs to be healthy for the whole season or there’s no way to possibly earn that value. Do you believe that strongly in Gronk staying healthy? While I like Gronk, I like value even more and I can’t rationalize putting that much of your budget into a player who has such an injury history as he does. Coincidentally, ESPN rates Travis Kelce as an $18 player and I would certainly rather invest $30 less into a guy like Kelce even though I like Gronk more (and yes the irony that I told you not to take Kelce on Yahoo isn’t lost on me, it’s all about taking advantage of each website).

That’s it for this week my friends. Make sure you get on Yahoo and ESPN and drop all of these players on others for their inflated price. The more you make others spend, the more bargains that will be available for you. We’ll be back next week with my idea of a perfect auction draft. Until then, don’t be afraid to holler at me in the comments below!

Author

  • As a 20 year veteran of fantasy sports, I have seen everything and tried every strategy. I have learned that the keys to winning are preparation and focus. I am here to share my experience and preparation with all of you! My biggest strengths are drafting, trading and add/drops because they all require good preparation and knowledge of what you are doing. I will share my advice and my reasoning while hopefully sprinkling a little entertainment along with it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.