It’s been a great season so far, but you could argue Week 12 was one of the best weeks of the year and I wouldn’t push back at all. Thursday night came down to the final drive, three of Sunday’s games went into overtime, and many others were decided by one score or less.
Unfortunately the Buccaneers couldn’t keep Sunday Night Football close enough to be interesting, but otherwise it was a very entertaining day of football.
Our picks for Week 12 were pretty solid, with the Bears and Jaguars both finishing their contests with eight points apiece. However, our top pick of the week was the Browns, and their ten-sack, 18-point performance was not only tied for the best D/ST showing of the day, but it was also enough to get Chip Kelly fired by the Raiders. I can’t help but feel somewhat responsible.
Week 13 kicks off with the traditional three games on Thanksgiving, otherwise known as the best holiday of the year. The Lions and Cowboys play their typical home games, hosting the Packers and Chiefs, respectively, in what should be two great games. And finally, it appears we may get Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Burrow in primetime after all, as reports are indicating that Burrow was almost activated for Week 12 and should be good to go on Thursday night.
We’ll also enjoy a few solid matchups for the rest of the week, including the first place Eagles and Bears squaring off on Black Friday, the Colts hosting the Texans in the early window on Sunday, and the Steelers and Bills facing off in a potential playoff preview on Sunday afternoon. And while both primetime games look like potential blowouts, Jameis Winston just took the Lions to overtime with 366 passing yards, so Monday Night Football in Foxboro could be more interesting than we once thought.
While I kick off my three-day fast to maximize stuffing and mashed potato intake on Thursday, let’s take a look at the best fantasy football Week 13 defense streamers (D/ST) that should be available on the waiver wire.
SHAMELESS PLUG/TEASER: PLAYOFF D/ST PREVIEW COMING NEXT WEEK!
TEAMS TO AVOID IN WEEK 13
Green Bay Packers (83% rostered): The Packers are one of a few teams this season that have fallen into the category of a great real-life defense but not a good fantasy unit. Green Bay is fourth in total yards allowed, fifth against the pass, sixth against the run, and fifth in scoring, and yet through Week 12 they’re the DST19. Even being tied for 10th in sacks hasn’t helped them overcome being T-21st in turnovers and failing to score a defensive TD yet this year. When it comes to real matchups, they’re a formidable group, but they simply haven’t moved the needle in terms of fantasy scoring.
I expect that to continue this week as the Packers face off against the Lions in Detroit in the early Thanksgiving game. Detroit is coming off a crazy comeback win over the Giants, scoring the final 17 points of the game to erase a double-digit fourth quarter deficit and take the victory in overtime. Jahmyr Gibbs went absolutely insane on Sunday, rushing for 219 yards and two TDs, including the game-winner, and catching another 11 passes for 45 yards and a score. Even against a defense that has done well in containing RB production this season, I have trouble thinking of a scenario in which Gibbs doesn’t go off again, and with a Lions offense that has just eight giveaways on the year, I don’t see Green Bay turning the tide on their low turnover numbers.
Pittsburgh Steelers (59% rostered): The Steelers defense has been red hot in recent weeks, putting up 20+ points twice since Week 9 and averaging almost 15 points per game over the last four weeks. However, they’ve won just two of those contests and now find themselves in second place in the AFC North behind the surging Ravens.
Now getting desperate to string some wins together, the Steelers return home to host Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are coming off a tough loss to Houston in which Allen was sacked eight times, and they’re becoming an afterthought in the AFC East race as the Patriots won again to improve to 10-2. With a few extra days to prepare and an obvious flaw in their offense that needs correcting, I think Buffalo will make the necessary adjustments and look like the offense we saw two weeks ago against Tampa in this contest. That said, I don’t think there will be much Pittsburgh can do to slow them down, and I’m not starting them this week.
FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEK 13 DEFENSE STREAMERS (D/ST)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (16% ROSTERED)
Before their Week 12 bye, the Chargers put up an absolute stinker in Jacksonville. In a 35-6 loss, LA’s defense finished with -1 points with no sacks and just one turnover on the day. However, prior to that game they were coming off a stretch where they averaged 11 points per game over three contests against the Vikings, Titans, and Steelers.
Jim Harbaugh is obviously a coach that prides himself on his defense, and with two weeks to prepare for a home game as they gear up for a tough remaining schedule and try to catch the Broncos for the division title, I’d be comfortable taking LA against almost anyone. Thankfully, the matchup makes this pick even easier, as the Chargers will host the 2-9 Raiders this week.
I alluded to it in the intro, but if you skipped that part (kinda mean, I worked really hard on it, but whatever), the short version of the story is Geno Smith was sacked ten times in a 24-10 loss and Chip Kelly went from the highest paid coordinator in the NFL to unemployed. The team has yet to name the interim OC, although it appears the favorite is Greg Olson (no, the other one), who currently serves as the team’s QB coach.
Nobody expected too much from the Raiders this season, but even compared to those tempered expectations they have been a disappointment. Smith is tied for the league lead with 13 interceptions and has been sacked 41 times, the second-highest total in the league. Ashton Jeanty is 20th in rushing, and his 3.6 yards per carry is the lowest of any back in the top 25 in rushing this year. Brock Bowers has been the lone bright spot in Las Vegas’ offense this year, but even he can only do so much when his quarterback play and run game are this bad.
For the season, the Raiders have allowed the second-most points to opposing defenses and are less than half a point behind the Titans for the top spot in that category. These two teams have faced off already in Week 2, and the Chargers put up 13 points via three sacks, three interceptions, and just nine points allowed.
With all that’s going wrong with the Raiders and the Chargers needing a jolt of momentum heading into a season-ending stretch against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos, this matchup should be an absolute beatdown that results in a huge day for LA’s defense. Given that treacherous schedule to end the season, I won’t be high on the Chargers defense again for the rest of the year, but I expect big things from them this week.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (39%)
The Jags were one of my selections last week as well, but given their roster rate increased from just 26% to the current 39%, they clearly weren’t a particularly popular pick. Still, they managed a solid eight points in an overtime win on Sunday thanks to six sacks and just 18 points allowed (Arizona also scored a defensive TD in the first quarter, which obviously doesn’t count against the opposing D/ST).
Jacksonville improved to 7-3 with the win and is now just one game back of Indianapolis, who lost in Kansas City on Sunday. Things could get even more interesting in the AFC South this week as both the Jags and Colts face division rivals, but while Indy will host the Texans, Jacksonville will head to Nashville to face the 1-10 Titans.
The Titans managed to lose by only six against Seattle in Week 12, but the game wasn’t actually that close. Honestly, given that their final scoring drive started with over five minutes remaining in a 13-point game and resulted in a score with less than a minute left after a 15-play drive, I truly think Tennessee was solely playing to cover the spread — which, to their credit, they did. But they were never in a position to put the result of the game in any sort of jeopardy.
On the bright side, Cam Ward played arguably his best game as a pro, throwing for 256 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 37 and another score. Unfortunately, Tennessee’s run game continued to disappoint, with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears combining for just 24 yards on 14 carries for an atrocious 1.7 YPC.
The Jags boast the league’s best run defense, so I expect more of the same from the Titans backfield in this contest, meaning Ward will have to be the hero if they’re going to be competitive in this one. I don’t think Ward is a lost cause by any means, but with very few competent weapons to throw to and an offensive line that’s gotten him sacked a league-high 45 times, his ability to impact a game is severely limited.
The Jags still have both of their games against the Colts remaining, with the first being next week, so improving to 8-4 and potentially getting even with Indy (if they lose to the Texans) would be huge in their quest for a division title. I’m not holding Jacksonville for an additional week heading into that matchup, but with the Jets on deck for Week 15, they could be a good stash for round one of the fantasy playoffs.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3%)
I threw up in my mouth a little typing that, but it’s true — Miami is in a good spot for a strong performance this week. Heading into their Week 12 bye, the Dolphins defense averaged over 11 points per game in two wins over the Bills and Commanders. They let up just 13 points in each of those contests and totaled four sacks and four turnovers.
While they don’t have much to play for at 4-7, it’s possible that Mike McDaniel is coaching for his job down the stretch, and Week 13 brings with it a very winnable matchup against the 2-9 Saints.
The Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year, and the switch at QB from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough didn’t do much to fix that. Most recently, the Falcons put up 16 points on New Orleans, finishing with five sacks and two turnovers while the Saints scored their only touchdown on a pick six.
The Saints finally opened the “Break Glass in Case of Emergency” box that Taysom Hill had been sitting in all year, but Hill finished the game 0/2 passing with only 17 rushing yards on ten carries, so even that wasn’t enough to get the offense going. New Orleans’ running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal finished the day with just 29 yards on ten carries, and Shough took five sacks while the offense failed to find the end zone all afternoon.
This has the potential to be an absolute stinker of a game with two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league, but Miami definitely has the upper hand at home. They aren’t the sexiest pick of the week, but in deep leagues where available defenses are at a premium, you can do a lot worse than the Dolphins this week.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
San Francisco 49ers (44%): San Francisco plays host to the Panthers on MNF to round out Week 12 and will follow it up with a road game against Shedeur Sanders and the Browns in Week 13.
Atlanta Falcons (46%): Coming off a 16-point showing against the Saints, Atlanta will stay on the road and head to MetLife to face the Jets.
Indianapolis Colts (28%): Indy hasn’t put up double digit points on defense since Week 5, but they’ll be looking to avenge an overtime loss to the Chiefs this week as they host the Texans.
