Every fantasy football season, a handful of players emerge from nowhere and become true league-winners. Most frequently, these league-winners are rookies who, whether through injury or role elevation, are finally given a real shot.
For 2025 stretch runs, Tez Johnson oozes with this rare fantasy football league-winning upside.
Prior to the Bucs Week 9 Bye, Johnson already flashed some real fantasy juice. Yet, I think Tez was just scratching the surface, and is about to showcase his true ceiling for the remainder of the 2025 fantasy football season. Even still, he’s available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues, which is a massive mistake.
Let’s dive into Tez Johnson’s Week 10 and Rest of Season Fantasy Football outlook to break down why he could be a 2025 stretch run hero.
Tez Johnson Prospect Profile: Undersized but Uber-Productive and Efficient
Let’s get the negatives out of the way: Tez Johnson is tiny. At the 2025 Combine, Tez weighed in at 154 lbs, the size of your average middle schooler. Weight this low has almost always been a death knell in the NFL.
Per Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints: “Among all Combine-invited WRs since at least 2000, only two WRs have weighed less than 165 pounds and recorded a catch in the NFL: J.J. Nelson (156 pounds) and Tutu Atwell (155 pounds). To be fair, Xavier Worthy and Tank Dell both weighed in at exactly 165 pounds (11 pounds heavier than Johnson), but Dell is two inches shorter (superior BMI), and Johnson is nowhere near as fast as Worthy.”
Doubly concerning, Johnson’s timed speed (4.51 forty) was abysmal given his small size. When adjusted for his size, Johnson’s Speed Score ranks ranks 8th-worst of 1100 WRs since 2000 (0.01st percentile).
Thankfully, timed speed and play speed are often vastly different. Look no further than Johnson’s teammate Bucky Irving, who posted one of the worst forty times for a back of his smaller size in the history of the combine. Yet, Irving rips off big plays routinely when out there.
Johnson also posted some elite athleticism in other drills. Tez’s broad and vertical jumps fell in the great range (80th percentile), while his cone drills were elite (90th percentile). These metrics more accurately capture the explosivity and shiftiness Johnson routinely put on tape.
And my, how glorious that tape is! All you need is to watch Johnson’s tape vs. Penn State in the Big 10 Championship, where Johnson recorded 11 rec, 181 yards, and 1 TD in a critical game:
Johnson’s slippery ability with the ball in his hands was clearly on display all afternoon. He is a quick twitch mover that can stop on a dime, and is an incredibly explosive run-after-catch threat.
Also of note on the tape: Johnson’s savviness to get down and out of bounds and avoid major contact. Injury risk obviously increases at his small stature, but Tez resembles Tyler Lockett in understanding his limitations and sliding or slipping out of bound to avoid massive contact.
The production and efficiency match the tape, too. In two seasons at Oregon, Johnson amassed a massive 169 receptions, 2080 yards, and 20 TDs. Tez’s junior season playing alongside Bo Nix was particularly noteworthy. Amidst the “generational” 2023 WR class, Johnson accrued 3.45 Yards per Route Run (YPRR), ranking 2nd-best in the Power 5, between Malik Nabers (3.64) and Marvin Harrison Jr (3.44). Not bad company to keep!
During that 2023 season, Tez also led all WRs in yards after the catch (727), again emphasizing his deadly ability with the ball in his hands. Ultimately, Tez’s YPRR dipped to 2.60 in 2024, which is solid but not elite. His yards after the catch dropped to 604, but this still ranked second among Power Conference WRs. He was also a chain-moving machine, ranking 3rd best in first downs per route (0.147). His targets per route (TPRR) also led this class.
The other major knock on Tez is the gimmicky nature of his production. Once again via Scott Barrett & Fantasy Points, a whopping 27.1% of Johnson’s targets came on screens, and only 9.5% of his yards came from out wide. His 7.1 career average depth of target (aDot) is quite low, too:
Undoubtedly, given his size and route limitations, Tez would need to be a major outlier to hit true league-winner status. Fortunately, I believe Tez is in the right environment with the right opportunity to evolve into just that.
Tez Johnson Fantasy Football Production and Outlook
According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Chris Godwin is likely to be sidelined until “late November to December.” He aggravated the same fibula injury from last year, and the team plans to take it very slow with Godwin:
This opens the door for Johnson to be a near every-down pass-catcher for an explosive passing attack.
Johnson has already been making highlight reel plays, scoring 9.3 or more FPs in four straight weeks — anytime he has seen 50% or higher route share, he’s crossed 9+ points! In that span, Johnson’s also seen his route share grow from 52.9% in Week 5 all the way to 92.6% in Week 8, producing two of the best highlight reel TDs of the season:
The acrobatic, 45-yard catch is nice… but the underlying reasons it even happened are even more encouraging. According to JoeBucsFan, Tez adjusted his route mid-play from a crossing route to a go after recognizing the coverage:
“[It] was supposed to go across the field, good adjustment on Tez’s part,” Mayfield said. “Safety is waiting on the other side for him, so he just takes it up the middle.
“It is not necessarily a busted coverage. They had it covered well if you run the drawings on the paper, but Tez making an adjustment on the fly. That is huge for a rookie to be able to do and do it confidently in the midst of a game like that, especially in that moment.”
This is the type of veteran savvy that is rarely seen in rookie wide receivers, and will certainly earn Tez some more trust and playing time moving forward.
Interestingly, the 22 yard catch-and-run TD vs. the Lions is the only screen pass the Bucs have thrown to Tez thus far. He forced two missed tackles on the play, including an insane leap over a defender, and looked like the same guy in college who was so deadly after the catch. This is clearly what he thrived at the most in college, and ideally that tape has been expanded upon during the Bucs Week 9 Bye.
The Bucs offense is tailor made for a shifty slot WR who is good on screens. Indeed, we need the team to start dialing Tez up on these type of plays more regularly, and oftentimes we see these exact type of rookie usage bumps following a bye week.
If nothing else, the Buccaneers have become this generation’s Steelers in their ability to identify wide receiver prospects. Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the roster, as well as promising sophomore Jalen McMillan, Tampa spent a “luxury” first rounder on Emeka Egbuka, who’s looked like one of the league’s best wideouts from Day One. The fact they still spent more draft capital at the position on Tez Johnson suggests just how highly they viewed him. GM Jason Licht gushed upon drafting him:
“We had a pretty high grade on him [Tez Johnson]. Most of the time that you’re watching Oregon offense, he was, he was one of the top, if not the best player on the field… Did the same thing down at the Senior Bowl and makes plays left and right. He’s a hell of a returner, hell of a kid… we’re super excited, he was so fired up when we called.”
Thus far, Johnson’s 1.74 YPRR isn’t Earth-shattering, but it’s still in the upper-third of the league. This number is also much higher than both Jalen McMillan’s (0.74) and Xavier Worthy’s (1.30) over the first eight weeks of last season. McMillan is especially interesting, as he experienced a massive late-season rookie bump once Godwin was removed, averaging 14.5 FPG from Weeks 9-17 in a similar offense.
Ultimately, Johnson has already provided glimpses of greatness — far more than most 7th Rounders. With Godwin knocked out for the foreseeable future, the path to meaningful volume from one of the game’s most fantasy-friendly QBs has been paved.
If Tez can get the Post Bye Rookie (Usage) Bump that his tape warrants, he could be in for a massive stretch run.
Tez Johnson Week 10 Fantasy Outlook
Sure, Johnson’s fantasy outlook looks rosy for the foreseeable future. But how about Week 10 versus the Patriots?
According to Fantasy Points, the Pats are allowing the 5th most schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers, surrendering nearly +5 more FPs to WRs compared to their season-long averages. They’ve also allowed a 67.3% catch rate to slot WRs, where Tez has lined up 44.2% of the time.
Even if Johnson doesn’t get the “post bye bump,” he is fresh off a season-high in route share (92.6%) and target share (25%). In a middling-to-soft slot matchup, he could do some real damage on that type of usage.
This game is projected for a healthy 48.5 points, tied with a handful of teams for second-most on the slate. The Bucs are also favored by just 2.5, implying a tight game script which should keep the air under the ball. Considering the Patriots have yet to allow a 50 yard rusher and Bucky Irving seems set to miss this game, Tampa should be throwing early and often.
Thus, I like Tez to spike again in Week 10. If nothing else, he should extend his streak of 9+ FPs to five games. If his role evolves and Tez is featured on more screens, he could erupt and begin realizing his true stretch run hero upside.
Ultimately, Tez slides in as my WR33 (+3 ECR) in my Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings. I expect a strong outing that sparks a true difference-making stretch run for the electric rookie. If nothing else, he should be owned in far more than 31% of Yahoo Leagues. At minimum, stash Tez on your bench and see what happens in a ripe Week 10 matchup.
