What a wild ride week 7 was! A little taste of my own personal experience in my home league.
My opponent and I were in an arms race. Jaxson Dart, Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, and DeVonta Smith anchoring my bonanza vs. his Jalen Hurts, Quinshon Judkins, Rashee Rice, and Trey McBride.
Going into the end of the matchup, I had the edge and was expected to walk away triumphant… until George Kittle and Jameson Williams decided to drop goose eggs.
Long story short, fantasy is an exciting game and a cruel mistress.
Injuries continued to ravage the fantasy landscape. Mike Evans suffered another substantial midseason injury, and Jayden Daniels flirted with the NFL field before suffering another injury.
Some of these injuries could leave fantasy managers in a bind. Some are gearing up for those playoff pushes, while others are maybe throwing in the towel on a snake-bitten season.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
WEEK 8 BUY LOW SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
WEEK 8 BUY LOW TRADE TARGETS
ISIAH PACHECO
This is likely not going to be a popular take, but buying Pacheco might be the smart thing to do.
The excitement is all around Breshard Smith, who is acting in a bit of a Joker role for the Chiefs, which could lead to some lucrative fantasy production.
After looking more like the Pacheco of old this offseason, he’s been a massive disappointment. It’s time to call a spade a spade; he’s never going to be what he once was.
On the season, Pacheco’s utilization should have produced 8.6 xFP/g (-0.8 fantasy points vs expectation).
Fortunately, fantasy managers also likely know that and will be willing to unload him, likely at a discount.
Pacheco still profiles as an RB3/flex play with a good path to volume. Patrick Mahomes is back in form, and the offense looks unstoppable.
With matchups like Washington, Buffalo, and Dallas ahead, he could provide some winning weeks and he looks like a savvy buy on the cheap.
Jordan Mason
The news that Aaron Jones is pegged to return as early as week 8 could be making Mason managers question his value.
On the season, Mason ranks as the RB28 in xFP (11.3) and is the RB22 in ppg (12.1). Some might think he’s a sell high.
Jones is going to have his role and he’s still capable of popping off on any play for a house call. It’s just questionable how much pass work might be funneled to Jones upon his return.
Early in the season though, it was clear Mason was taking over the backfield with a healthy Jones.
We’re at the point in the season that managers should start considering roster additions for the playoffs and how valuable he’s going to be late season.
With a fantasy playoff schedule consisting of the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants, Mason is in line to help push opposing rosters over the hump into a possible spot in championships.
While his role in the two-minute offense is questionalble, Mason is still expected to hold on to his goal-line role and dominate snap shares.
ROME ODUNZE
A miniature sophomore slump has some fantasy managers questioning whether Rome’s early season fantasy eruption was real or a mirage.
Will the real Rome Odunze please stand up?
Some offseason smoke may have contributed to the legend of Rome, but he never scored fewer than 15 points through the first four weeks.
He was a bonafide must-start in most leagues, finishing as a WR2 or better in all four games. Since then… well I found more value in a bowl of rice krispies, with a combined 10.3 points through two weeks.
Still, who leads the Bears in targets? All roads lead to Rome. He’s the clubhouse leader in targets, yards, and touchdowns.
Despite his late struggles, his role has still been worth 15 xFP/g.
Rome is in line to play the Ravens, Bengals, and Giants.
Get back in the Rome house before the windows slam shut.
WEEK 8 SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
KEENAN ALLEN
The truth of the matter is, if you can sell all three Chargers WRs for high dollar you likely should do so.
The most trustworthy for strong fantasy production projects to be Quentin Johnston still. He and Herbert have a connection deep and in the end zone.
With the emergence of Oronde Gadsden and how Allen likely just had his best game of the season, he seems like an obvious sell high.
So far, Allen is the WR8 in xFP (16.8) and is hovering right below expectation this season with 15.9 fppg (WR12). He’s performed admirably and still projects to be Herbert’s most targeted receiver.
In week 7, despite being targeted 14 times and catching 11 for 119 yards and a score, Allen saw only 49 snaps. He was outsnapped by QJ (68) and Ladd McConkey (67).
With Omarion Hampton still recovering from his ankle injury, the Chargers will still need to be pass heavy. But the possible return to a more balanced attack is not far away.
TRAVIS KELCE
In the back of fantasy managers minds, they had to know this was coming.
Rashee Rice has returned. The Kansas City pass catchers are rounding into form and this offense is rocking. Moe concerningly, this offense is rocking without heavily running through Kelce.
He’s caught 16 of his 18 targets the last three weeks.
Now, it’s just a one-week sample size, but in Rice’s return, Kelce saw only three targets, a sharp drop from averaging 6.6 per game prior.
Selling him now is likely a sell on his namesake and the Kansas City offense narrative.
On the season, Kelce is the TE16 in xFP (9.3) and is scoring 2.2 more fppg (11.5) on the season.
Now with Smith serving as the Chiefs Clown Prince of Crime in the backfield, Kelce seems primed to be more of a spike play TE at best moving forward.
D’ANDRE SWIFT
This doesn’t mean that Swift is about to fall off a cliff or he’s fools gold or anything.
Selling high on Swift now means selling him for more than what he’s projected to produce down the stretch. Leveraging his performance to acquire more value for your roster.
Swift is one of the hottest players in fatnasy right now and has two great matchups ahead (Baltimore and Cincinnati).
He could be held and sold on the back end of that alluring two game stretch, but why risk it?
On the season, Swift’s usage has him around the RB16 (14.4 xFP/g). On the season, despite a couple of rocky weeks, Swift has put the naysayers to bed, scoring 16.3 fppg (RB11).
During his hot stretch (25.5, 20.8 fpts), he’s drastically scored above expectation (10.6, 16.6 xFP).
Kyle Monangai is slowly working his way more into the backfield and makes for an excellent handcuff to Swift. Still, Swift is the alpha in the backfield until proven otherwise.
Packaging Swift for an upgrade like Javonte Williams now makes a ton of sense. Especially with two favorable matchups ahead.
Sell him while he’s over performing a bit and set yourself up for more reliable, top-end fantasy production down the line.
