Who in here was personally victimized by Russell Wilson? Did Michael Penix Jr. tempt any fantasy managers with that salubrious hate cut?
This is a safe place! In my SuperFlex home league, injuries have forced me to start Penix and Wilson. I procured Malik Nabers in a Ja’Marr Chase swap after losing Joe Burrow. Needless to say, I feel your pain.
Fantasy football can inspire as much rage as it can joy. Nailing those offseason calls creates the highest of highs, while having takes light up in your face can make us all swear like Donald Duck.
Take a moment. Vent. Yell. Blame this all on that no good, dirty-rotten, pig-stealing great-great-grandfather. Then gather yourself. Carry Madame Zerone over the mountain and conquer Week 4!
Fantasy champions are made. Sharpened by iron, strengthened by combat. Legacies are forged. Put Week 3 behind you. Week 4 represents the next step to your fantasy legacy!
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
Week 4 Buy Low, Sell High Trade Targets
WEEK 4 BUY LOW TRADE TARGETS
TROY FRANKLIN
Franklin seemed to be solidified as the WR2 in Denver and was pacing the Broncos in targets before week 3’s four-target day.
A down week creates a bit of a buy-low opportunity for Franklin, who projects to be a solid flex play with upside should Courtland Sutton go down to injury.
Taking a peek behind the analytical curtain, there’s still plenty to like for Franklin.
He has run only five fewer snaps than Sutton and has run 30 more snaps than the next closest WR (Marvin Mims). In other words, he’s clearly the second option in Denver!
Franklin’s the first read on nearly 23% of his routes and is being targeted on 24% of his routes.
With nearly 27% of the team air yards under his belt, Franklin’s output isn’t going anywhere.
Through three weeks, his usage has been worth an expected 11.9 fantasy points per game. With two red zone opportunities across three weeks, Franklin offers a steady floor with decent TD upside!
Last week was likely just due to the Chargers outstanding defense.
ASHTON JEANTY
The generational running back prospect is off to a rocky start in Las Vegas.
His talent is undeniable, but his OL should be called the black hole. No matter how many tackles Jeanty avoids (0.26 MTF/att.), he can’t seem to escape the gravitational hold of his line’s ineptitude.
Week three awarded Jeanty his most promising game on the ground thus far, 63 yards on 17 carries (3.7 YPC). But he saw zero targets.
Peeping at his snap shares, it doesn’t seem as if the organization is concerned with his output. From week 1 to week 3, Jeanty’s snaps went from 85.7% > 55.7% > 60.6%.
Given that Jeanty finally broke through on the ground game and his competition for touches is Dylan Laube, expect his usage to return closer to the first week of the season.
The targets will return.
Jeanty is the RB22 in xFP (12.3) and is currently the PPR RB33 on the season (8.6 ppg). Kick those tires and try to work out a deal for Jeanty now before his buy low window gets nailed shut.
KEON COLEMAN
The last two weeks have been ugly for Coleman.
Six receptions for 46 yards is not going to get it done. However, the talent is there, and the opportunity is still knocking.
Despite running one fewer route than Shakir, Coleman has seen five more targets and has commanded 27.6% of Josh Allen’s air yards vs. 14.3% for KS.
He has been targeted on 21% of his routes, including being the first read 25.4% of the time. The problem has been that James Cook has been a force of nature on the ground, and McDermott is riding his horse as far as he can.
Coleman’s current upside is capped by his inability to give you anything after contact (0.86 YACO/rec.).
Dalton Kincaid and Shakir are the creation specialists.
Being Allen’s best deep threat still comes with exploitable upside and a healthy role (11.6 xFP/g) in a high-octane offense.
WEEK 4 SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
MARVIN HARRISON JR.
It’s time to have an uncomfortable conversation about Harrison.
The traits coming into the league were undeniable. Still, the red flags in his profile were heavily ignored. In 2024, I broke down how Nabers was clearly the superior prospect to MHJ.
Harrison struggled evading tackles at Ohio State, struggled after the catch, and showed unreliable hands. In 2025, these deficiencies seem to have carried over.
After being criminally mismanaged in 2024 with a lot of his route tree consisting of deep routes and go routes. When targeted on laterally breaking routes in 2024, MHJ performed well and was surprisingly fluid at separating from defenders.
In 2025, Harrison ranks 70th among 91 qualified WRs with a 0.021 separation score, according to Fantasy Points data. Despite 47 of his 96 routes breaking horizontally (49%), he is still only winning on 8.5% of his said routes.
His 1.46 yards per route run and 16% target per route run totals this season don’t bode well for his future prospects. Being tethered to Kyler Murray doesn’t help matters.
Harrison’s 12.4 xFP/g (-2.3 FPOE) suggests he should be doing more to help fantasy managers. With just a little over one red zone opportunity per game and being the second read on his team, his upside is capped.
Sell MHJ on his upside and name and chase more reliable production at the position. He’s getting dangerously close to entering bust territory and is arguably the WR5 in his own draft class at this point.
JK DOBBINS
Is Dobbins’ fantasy output really sustainable?
Currently, in PPR scoring, Dobbins is the RB12, averaging 15.2 ppg. However, his usage (11.5 xFP) suggests he is drastically overperforming and could be due for a decent drop off.
Dobbins has found his way into the end zone in each game this season.
Scoring 3.7 FPOE without explosive fantasy output and living in the endzone screams negative regression.
Through three games, Dobbins is only seeing around 55% of the snaps, but he is seeing a respectable 15 touches per game!
As for his backfield mate, rookie RJ Harvey has produced more than 2 rushing yards over expectation per attempt. As his role continues to grow, it’s unlikely Dobbins’ output will be sustained.
Selling Dobbins while the kettle is hot just makes sense. Waiting a week and cashing on his matchup against the Bengals isn’t the worst idea out there, though!
DALTON KINCAID
Kincaid has caught a touchdown pass in two straight games from Allen. Could the long-awaited Kincaid breakout be upon us? Perhaps! The future is impossible to know for certain.
His route participation offers me cause for pause. He plays just over 51% of routes and runs a route on 57% of his snaps (27th among TEs).
More concerningly, a tight end that is TD-dependent, like most are, who sees less than 50% of the red zone snaps is alarming.
Kincaid plays fewer snaps than Dalton Knox, who also runs a route on 40% of his snaps.
Currently, Kincaid’s 13.2 ppg is 3.2 FPOE relative to his xFP (10.2). He’s the TE6 despite being the TE10 in xFP.
Yes, Kincaid is tethered to an elite quarterback in an elite offense. That’s exactly why he’s likely a strong sell high candidate.
The offense, until something changes, runs through the ground game.
Being tethered to Allen and back-to-back touchdown games should surely net a pretty penny on the trade market.
Which players are you buying low and/or selling high as we enter Week 4? Hit me up on X to talk shop or shred me to pieces.
