Despite an underwhelming rookie year, Troy Franklin is putting his name in the ballot for 2025 breakout candidates. Many thought he might be buried in the depth chart due to a selection of Pat Bryant in the 2025 draft and the strong season from the presumed Broncos WR1, Courtland Sutton, but this is not the case so far this season. In fact, he should not be left on any waiver wire after this week.
This past weekend, Franklin broke onto the scene with eight receptions on nine targets for 89 receiving yards and a touchdown, averaging an elite 3.18 yards per route run. Sutton was the next-highest targeted receiver and only had 4 targets. Franklin leads the Broncos after two games in targets (15), receptions (12), receiving yards (133), yards per reception (11.1), yards per route run (2.38), missed tackles forced (3), and first downs (6). Head coach Sean Payton looks to be scheming him up as well.
CHEMISTRY WITH BO NIX
There are many reasons to be excited about Troy Franklin. One of those is the fact that he is now tied to his college quarterback from Oregon, Bo Nix, who was also selected by the Denver Broncos with their 12th overall pick in 2024. Not to mention, Nix threw 14 touchdown passes to Troy Franklin in their final season with the Ducks. It’s difficult to imagine a world where there isn’t chemistry with this duo.
This Broncos team lacks a serious offensive threat, and the wide receiver room is certainly open for the taking. Courtland Sutton turns 30 years old in October and is playing in his 8th NFL season this year. Although Sutton is coming off a great season, at this point in his career, he should not be expected to make any major leaps (while Franklin is) – especially considering Denver has been able to accumulate young pieces at his position.
There were loads of question marks surrounding Troy Franklin after he fell in the NFL draft and a forgettable rookie year – I am here to tell you not to dwell on draft capital and look at the talent. Before the NFL Draft process, Franklin was being talked about as a first-round pick.
AN ELITE PROFILE AT OREGON
Over Franklin’s last two years at Oregon, he caught 142 receptions (204 targets) for a total of 2,274 receiving yards with 23 receiving touchdowns. Per PlayerProfiler, Franklin also runs a 4.41 40-yard dash (90th-percentile), has an 83rd-percentile burst score, 88th-percentile catch radius, and stands at six-foot-two inches tall.
The young wide receiver out of Oregon passes the eye test and checks every box we look for in a young receiver metrics-wise. When you remove screen passes, Troy Franklin ranked second amongst the entire 2024 rookie wide receiver class in collegiate yards per route run behind none other than Marvin Harrison Jr.
One of my personal favorite metrics to measure the efficiency of a receiver is first downs per route run. Football Insights has the new Denver Broncos WR in some pretty elite company here, striking a close comparison to Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson in these metrics:
Troy Franklin had more career first downs per route run than all of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, Drake London, Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Rome Odunze, and a wide array of other WR prospects.
Regarding yards per route run and breakout age, Franklin’s profile was one of the best in the 2024 class as well as falling just short of both Malik Nabers’ and MHJ’s.
From 2022 to 2023, no receiver in the entire 2024 class had more yards per route run versus single coverage than Franklin did with 5.55 YPRR. He also had more targets per route run than Nabers did versus single coverage over this span, while again falling just short of Harrison Jr.
As another reminder of Franklin’s prospect pedigree, he was second amongst last year’s wide receiver class in EPA per route with 0.196. To no surprise, Harrison Jr. again led the class in this metric, but Franklin was right ahead of Nabers who had 0.195 EPA per route.
TROY FRANKLIN FANTASY OUTLOOK: MUST-ADD OFF WAIVERS
Franklin’s efforts in compiling his elite prospect profile looks to be paying off as he is off to a hot start this season. Amongst the 85 WRs with five or more targets this season, here is where Franklin ranks through two games:
- 5th in missed tackles forced (3)
- 7th in yards after the catch (71)
- 8th in drop grade (has 0 drops)
- T-12th in catch rate (80%)
- 13th in yards after the catch per reception (5.9)
- T-14th in receptions (12)
- 15th in yards per route run (2.38)
- 18th in yards (133) and offensive grade
- 19th in receiving grade
- T-21st in targets (15)
- T-21st in first downs (6)
This would not be the first time we saw a player fly down NFL teams’ big boards in the draft, only to prove them all wrong with a successful NFL career. With everyone seeming to be out or indifferent on Troy Franklin simply because of his lack of production in year one and fall in last year’s draft, I love the idea of scooping Franklin off waiver wires in redraft leagues, hoping that pays off by the end of the season. He is rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues and checks in at WR60 (+2 vs ECR) on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings.
Dynasty-wise, I would be buying high on Troy Franklin in all formats. Try sending a 2026 third-round pick and depth or bench wide receiver in exchange for Franklin.
