As the old saying goes: you won’t win your fantasy football league in the first round, but you sure could lose it. Which name will you call on as your 2025 fantasy football anchor? Who should you draft in Round 1 of your 2025 Fantasy Football Draft?
Below, find my First Round of 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts, in order & tiers. I will give deep-dive into each one of my Top-12 Fantasy Football Picks to give you detailed analysis of each one’s fantasy outlooks.
Note: This is a preview from my 2025 Fantasy Draft Guide – just updated today (August 29th)! If you enjoy this article, please consider supporting the site while gaining access to over 190+ pages of my Round-by-Round strategy, Targets, Fades, and Sleepers. Don’t miss out on the guide that will win you your 2025 fantasy league!
2025 Round 1 Fantasy Football: Actually 17 Round 1 Worthy Players?
In 2025, there are at least 16 players I would be fine with in Round 1 – 7 RBs, 8 WRs, and Brock Bowers. As such, I love picking in the 10-12 range and locking up two “first round talents.” In Best Ball, some “Round 1 Worthy” RBs even fall to the end of Round 2 (i.e. Jonathan Taylor)
To me, there’s a “Big Six” in the first round of 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts. After that, 7-8 players are all in the same tier, and it’s a matter of personal preference & league-setting. Honestly, choosing between the WRs in that range is torture, as they all have astronomical upside.
Be flexible as you establish your Round 1 & 2 anchors. Landing an Elite RB & Elite WR creates some nice flexibility and would be my preference, but where you’re drafting from + rosters + scoring setting all necessitate a flexible approach. In the Top-5? You’re likely locking in a “Hero-Worthy RBs” – and maybe a second in Round 2. At the bottom of the draft? I love going WR-WR if two of the Top-8 are there (& especially in PPR and/or 3 WR leagues), and back-filling RB with TreVeyon Henderson, Ken Walker, etc. later.
Given the vast majority of league-winners will come from this early range, I dive into every “Round 1 Worthy” player, identifying their ceilings and any warts we need to consider.
Tier 1 – Fantasy Football Round 1 Gods
1. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN, WR1)
No player was more valuable in 2024 than Chase. He posted a 72% Playoff Rate on ESPN and above 50% advance rate in Best Ball, which are both record-highs for single-season importance. Chase provided a +9.1 Value over Replacement, more than doubling the next-closest Justin Jefferson (+4.2)
In fact, Chase outscored Jefferson by nearly 90 Full PPR points (403 vs. 317), while also besting Saquon Barkley by nearly 50 PPR FPs, too. He finished 1st in targets (175), catches (127), yards (1708), TDs (17), and FPs (403 – 4th most ALL TIME!) while becoming the youngest player to win the receiving Triple Crown
Chase also became much more consistent in 2025. Last year, I was admittedly lower on Chase due to his career inconsistency compared to Jefferson and St. Brown – Across his first three seasons (2022-2024), Chase was a Top-12 WR just 33% of the time and Top-24 just 44%, with over half of his games (56%) outside the Top-25. He was fresh off WR11 and WR10 finishes in 2023 and 2022.
That all changed in 2025. Chase was a Top-12 WR a whopping 60% of the time, including six Top-5 finishes (33%) & three No.1. He only fell below 11 FPs once in the entire year, and was outside the Top-24 just four times – all while still providing his patented week-winning spikes, with three games of 40+ FPs!
Even scarier? Two of the four games outside the Top-24 were Weeks 1 & 2, in which Chase was still getting up to game speed after missing all of Training Camp. If you remove those two games, Chase would have averaged 25.6 FPPG, which would’ve ranked 5th most ALL-TIME!
What led to such a massive fantasy explosion? An ABYSMAL Bengals defense left the offense constantly chasing points.
In fact, in the eight games the Bengals lost last year, Chase averaged 26.7 FPPG! This would rank Number One ALL TIME, and is 8 points more than Jefferson averaged last year.
Currently, the Bengals top-defender Trey Hendrickson is holding out, as they also wage contract-war with their first round pass-rusher Shemar Stewart (who was a bad pick to begin with). There’s a very real chance this defense is somehow even worse in 2025, which should keep Burrow & Chase firing on all cylinders.
While some bell-cow RBs like Barkley and Bijan make compelling No.1 Overall cases, Chase feels safer, provides a massive edge over his peers, and somehow still has untapped upside. 2,000 yards & 20 TDs aren’t impossible, making Chase my clear No.1.
Don’t get cute. Draft Ja’Marr Chase if you get the 1st Pick in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts
2. Bijan Robinson (ATL – RB1)
Bijan Robinson is among the safest clicks that still carries astronomical upside in 2025.
With 304 carries and 72 targets, Bijan paced all RBs in Expected Fantasy Points (305, 12 more than the next closest). Bijan turned this pristine usage into an RB3 PPR Finish (RB4 in Half), with his 341.7 FPs trailing only Barkley and Gibbs in PPR.
Oddly enough, Bijan and the Falcons struggled through the first 5 weeks – Robinson scored only 1 TD and did not have a single Top-12 RB performance; Robinson was just the RB18 from Weeks 1-5. Per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer:
Bijan then went on to DOMINATE for the remainder of 2025. From Weeks 6-18, Bijan was the RB1 in FPPG (22.8), topping 20+ FPs in 10-of-12 games & finishing as a Top-12 RB in all of those (83% of the time).
Over these final 12 weeks, Bijan’s season-long pace was 397 touches (61 rec), 2056 YFS, 19 TDs & 388 FPs (compared to a pace of 289 touches, 1482 yds, 3 TDs through 5 weeks). Most notably, his carries per game jumped from 13.4 to 19.75.
While the sample is small (only 3 games), Bijan was even more beastly during Michael Penix’s 3 starts to close 2025. Bijan scored 24.3, 24.8, and 31.3 FPs across these 3 games for an average of 26.8. He averaged 24.7 touches, 125 YFS, and 2 TDs per game during these weeks.
If there was a fault to Bijan’s game, it was the lack of truly explosive plays. Robinson was very solid in consistently churning positive yards, and ranked 4th in the league with 10+ yard carries (34 total). He ranked 4th with 70 missed tackles forced.
Yet, Bijan ranked 9th in 15+ yard runs (12 total), with a season-long of 37 yards – a total 15 RBs beat last year. The true elite of Henry, Barkley, Gibbs, and Taylor all had runs of at least 70+ yards. Robinson is well-aware, though, saying that’s the focus of his offseason:
“We’re done with 30-yard runs and all that stuff. Now it’s time to get those 60 yards, 50 yards. So, I’ve been doing a lot more explosive drills. I’ve been doing a lot more running — 100 yards, like sprinting — so we can be prepared for, God willing, when those moments come in all the games.
“I work on it every single day. Obviously, the explosives, we always want them. We’ve added so many things to this offense so we can create more explosives. And, for me, sometimes it’s that one defender, but now that’s all. That’s what I’ve been working on all offseason, just seeing that free hitter and making moves off him.”
With Penix under center all year, the offense ideally clicking right from the jump, and a focus on more explosive long-runs, Bijan could easily finish as the top-RB and overall player in 2025. Many will prefer Saquon after his 2024 – and I did prior to digging in deeper. But after realizing some “curses’ Barkley is up against, I ultimately side with Robinson – who has just as high of a ceiling, but a lot safer of a floor as the younger, fresher guy.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB3)📈
If David Montgomery didn’t exist, Gibbs would be the No.1 player in Fantasy – by a mile.
Even with Montgomery siphoning 185 carries, 38 tgts, 1116 YFS and 12 TDs, Gibbs STILL finished as the PPR RB1 & Half PPR RB2 last year. We’ve gotten glimpses of Gibbs without Montgomery, and it’s glorious:
Gibbs games w/o Montgomery:
- 9.2 FPs (Week 3 2023), RB25 – rookie year, still “getting feet wet.”
- 27.6 FPs (Week 7 ‘23), RB3
- 29.9 (Week 6 ‘23), RB1
- 25.4 (Week 16 ‘24), RB7
- 26.3 (Week 17 ‘24), RB2
- 46 (Week 18 ‘24), RB1
Yes, in his last 5 without Montgomery, Gibbs averaged 31.04 FPPG! Last season, even with Montgomery back in the playoffs and their season on the line, Gibbs had 25 opps (14 att, 11 tgts), 175 YFS, and 2 TDs for 35.5 FPs, compared to 7 carries for 28 yards for Montgomery.
For context, LaDanian Tomlinson holds the record with 30 FPPG. Gibbs would absolutely BREAK 2025 Fantasy Football if either A) Montgomery misses significant time or B) New OC John Morton uses him more.
At minimum, it seems hard to put the Gibbs “genie back in the bottle.” Nonetheless, in games where they were both active, Montgomery actually bested Gibbs in expected fantasy points share (51% vs. 49%) given his TD Vulture role. Montgomery was the RB11 in FPPG before getting hurt and is no slouch himself.
Thus far in camp, though, it appears to be a changing of the guard. Via The Athletic: “One thing that’s been clear as these practices have unfolded is that Gibbs is usually the first back on the field with the starters. In past years, you’d often see Montgomery get the first bulk of carries before Gibbs takes the field. There was a clear pecking order in practice, and that often translated to games. Maybe it’s nothing to read into…or perhaps the staff is recognizing he’s too talented for a true 50-50 split.”
Gibbs had previously been behind Barkley, but with this added first-team burn and his true “best RB season of all-time” ceiling, I had to bump him up to No.3 overall.
Is The Wolf crazy for having Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of Saquon Barkley?!
4. Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB1)
The move to Philadelphia was massive for Barkley, who’s fresh off career-highs in rushing attempts (345) yards (2005), rush TDs (13), and Half-PPR FPs (340). Barkley finished as a Top-5 RB in 41% of his games, including 5 games of 31+ FPs, while scoring as an RB1 a whopping 62% of the time.
Turns out going from a bottom-five line to the best line in the league can help! Barkley earned 1328 yards BEFORE contact last year!
Even more crazy, Barkley was tackled at the one-yard line an NFL-high 11 times. Ten of those became Jalen Hurts TDs, zero became Barkley scores. Barkley is also coming off a career-low 33 catches, and he had more than 2 receptions just 4 times last year. There’s actually some meat on Saquon’s fantasy bone regarding TDs and receptions (even if Jalen Hurts benefits neither of those)!
However, Barkley has a few curses & trends working against him repeating as the No.1 RB in 2025:
- In nearly 20 years, no RB has gone back-to-back as the scoring fantasy RB since LT (2006 & 2007)
- LT was also the last RB over 28 to finish as the RB1 (2007) & Barkley turned 28 this offseason
- The Madden Curse, of course.
- The Curse of 370 touches (& 400 carries). Including the playoffs, Barkley finished with 436 carries and 482 touches. Since 2010, there have been 17 RBs with 370+ touches. All but one of these RBs fell in fantasy production, with 14-of-17 dropping by at least 50+ points and 11-of-17 dropping by 100+ points.
The outlook is even worse for 400+ carry RBs. In the Super Bowl era, 35 RBs have hit 400+ carries in a season. 31-of-35 scored fewer points (88%), and no RB scored more since 2000. The average drop in FPs the next year was a whopping 141. None have finished higher than RB15 since 2003:
AND there’s E) The curse of 2000+ yard rusher – only 8 RBs have achieved this statistical feat. Every single one dropped at least 99.4 FPs the next year, with an average drop of 151 FPs!
Clearly, Barkley has a lot working against him in 2025. Still, his set up behind this No.1-ranked line is so glorious, and Barkley just posted his most efficient and explosive rushing metrics of his career, ranking 1st in Breakaway runs (25) and 3rd in FPS over expectation. He is justifiable as high as No.1 overall, but I slightly prefer the higher-floor, similar-ceiling Bijan.
5. CeeDee Lamb (DAL – WR3)
Over the past two seasons, Lamb is the overall WR1 in Half PPR FPPG, INCLUDING games that Dak missed. In 2023, Lamb put up over 400 PPR FPs & actually had a better fantasy year than Chase’s 2024!
With Dak, Lamb has averaged 22.3 FPPG over the past 2 seasons – only Chase would’ve outscored him last year & this would have been nearly 4 points more per game than the next closest Jefferson.
Yes, I am slightly-concerned about new HC Brian Schottenheimer’s tendency to lean into the run. Yet, he’s been the OC the past two seasons while Lamb has been thriving.
Sure, I am mildly worried about George Pickens siphoning looks – but I also LOVE the attention Pickens will draw, and how teams can no longer scheme to take out Lamb with no consequence. He’s cleared 152+ targets & finished in the Top-10 WRs in FPPG for three straight years, and is among the safest 2025 bets.
Especially after trading away Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defense could truly blow in 2025. I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas becomes an NFC version of the Bengals, constantly chucking it to keep pace with their opponents, which should only further help Lamb.
Lamb vs. Jefferson is a tough debate. Yet, the security of Dak over JJ McCarthy (who’s reportedly struggling somewhat in camp), plus Jefferson’s hamstring, make me prefer Lamb over Jefferson.
CeeDee Lamb vs. Justin Jefferson is a BRUTAL call in 2025 Fantasy Football
6. Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR2)
You shouldn’t need much convincing to draft Justin Jefferson – there’s simply no safer pick.
Through five professional seasons, Jefferson has never finished outside the Top-10 WRs in FPPG– he’s been the WR10, WR4, WR2, WR4, and WR3 in Half PPR FPPG.
Even more impressive, Jefferson maintained this consistency despite a rotating QB Carousel, catching passes from the likes of Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall. This is largely because HC Kevin O’Connell is an absolute wizard.
In his three years as HC, the Vikings have ranked:
- Pass Attempts: 672 (3rd), 631 (4th), 545 (18th)
- Passing Yards: 4818 (2nd), 4700 (1st), 4319 (6th)
- Passing TDs: 30 (4th), 30 (4th), 35 (5th)
- Passing Fantasy Points: 299 (3rd), 284 (6th), 301 (5th)
At minimum, JJ McCarthy should match Darnold’s output. At best, he can be a stronger-armed Kirk Cousins that takes this offense to new heights and unlocks a whole new ceiling for Jefferson.
That is a floor / ceiling combination well-worth a Top-6 investment. He’s just below Lamb for me– the hamstring should be a non-issue, and McCarthy should be just fine, but those are two question marks Lamb does not face, when both have very similar ceiling / floor outlooks (if not a higher ceiling for Lamb)
Tier 2: Remaining Round 1 Talent (that bleeds into Round 2)
While I feel strongly about my above Top-6, the next 11 players (7 WRs, 3 RBs, 1 TE) could honestly be ranked in any order. Landing 2 of them in the Pick 9-17 range is GLORIOUS. Personally, I often lean into the WRs in this range – the upside is astronomical for them all, and the downside feels minimal.
Still, I understand the value of a Hero Worthy RB – so if you want to snare one or even two, I can’t blame you. Bowers as the next Travis Kelce Edge also feels incredibly real.
In both redraft and Best Ball, I will be doing my best to expose myself to a wide-range of all of these guys. Here’s my current rankings & analysis of the rest of my 2025 Fantasy Football Top-12:
7. Malik Nabers (NYG – WR5) 🐺
Despite catching passes from steaming garbage, Malik Nabers stole the NFL Rookie WR Receptions record (109) from Puka Nacua (105), while also breaking the Giants’ record for single-season receptions & rookie yardage. He ultimately posted 273 PPR FPs & a WR6 finish despite missing two games.
Perhaps more promising, Nabers was a volume-earning MACHINE! He posted a whopping 34% Target Share, the best in over 3 years, while finishing 2nd to Chase (170 targets) – despite missing 2 games! He saw 7 targets in Week 1… and that was his season-low, with Nabers hitting 10+ targets in 9-of-15 contests (60%), and 13+ targets in 6 games (40%). He topped a 30% target share in all but 3 games (per RotoViz) – including 67% in Week 2! Per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer:
Imagine if he can get a shred of competency at QB? Despite all the volume, Nabers hit a brutal TD drought, not scoring from Week 4 until Week 15 while catching passes from Tommy Devito and Drew Lock.
Even still – his 18.2 FPPG rank third best of any rookie WR since 1990! The list is:
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Randy Moss
- Malik Nabers
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Anquan Boldin
- Puka Nacua
- Justin Jefferson
- Michael Thomas
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Mike Evans
Pretty ELITE company to be towards the top of!
I don’t like Russ Wilson at all, but it’s still better than the Giants’ 2024 Clown Show, and the upside is astronomical once either cannon rookie Jaxson Dart or Fantasy King Maker Jameis Winston take over – honestly, Nabers would be my WR2 if Winston was starting at QB.
If there’s any risk, it’s Nabers’ slight build and whether he’ll hold up for 150+ targets every season. Still, Brian Daboll is adept at funneling Nabers lay-up looks, and he could easily threaten 350+ FPs & finish as THE WR1 in 2025.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET – WR4)
St. Brown is the model of consistency. He has finished as the Half-PPR WR8, WR3, and WR3 across his last 3 seasons, posting 140+ targets & 106+ receptions in each, ranking No.2 in receptions & Top-5 in yards in back-to-back years.
Since he became a starter in Week 13 of 2021, St. Brown has finished as a Top-12 WR a whopping 47% of the time & Top-24 in 65% of games – trailing only Jefferson in consistency over that span while never missing a game besides Week 18 Rest.
Sure, Ben Johnson’s departure raises some cause for concern – the man LOVED scheming to the slot. But Jared Goff remains here, and the line + defense taking a step-back in 2025 might actually help ASB, with Goff needing to get it out quicker.
Some may prefer the ceilings of Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, and BTJ but I’m riding with the guaranteed Top-8 production of St. Brown.
9. Nico Collins (HOU – WR6)
Yes, Nico has struggled to stay healthy, playing 15 & 12 games the past two seasons. He’s been utterly dominant when on the field though, finishing as the WR6 & WR7 in FPPG – and still managed 1,000+ yards & 7 TDs in just 12 contests last year.
Nico’s per-route efficiency is even more impressive, and emphasizes just how high his ceiling could be with health: over the past two seasons, Collins has posted 2.92 (WR3) & 3.24 (WR2) Yards per Route Run – one of the stickiest & most predictive WR stats out there. He’s also been the WR4 in FPs per route & WR3 in FPs per target, while finishing #1 in man coverage target rate last year.
Simply put: Collins is a proven beast, with deceptive speed at 6 ‘4”, sneaky after-the-catch juice, and the ability to win at every layer & at the point of attack.
What has me extra excited is Nico’s new offensive coordinator, Nick Caley, who has been groomed under Sean McVay with the Rams. No scheme is better at creating “lay up” opportunities for its top targets. In fact, one of only two WRs to beat Collins in YPRR last year was Puka Nacua (+ AJ Brown). Caley’s offense should be a massive improvement over Bobby Slowik, who regressed mightily in 2024.
I cannot wait to see how an elite, efficient talent like Collins performs in an offense that makes his life significantly easier. The best is yet to come, and Collins joins the short-list of “Candidates for THE 2025 WR1.”
Consistently efficient, Nico is a healthy season away from being the best WR in 2025 Fantasy Football
10. Brian Thomas (JAX, WR7) 🐺 + 5 ADP!
You shouldn’t need much convincing on Brian Thomas’ league-winning upside. Amidst a generational rookie class, Thomas led them all with 1282 yards and 10 TDs, while smashing every Jaguars’ franchise record for rookies. He finished 14th among WRs in targets, but ranked 3rd in yards, 5th in TDs, and 4th in FPPG. INCREDIBLE efficiency.
He was also the No.1 scoring WR in the Fantasy Playoffs (28.2 FPPG!).
The end-of-season run was particularly noteworthy, as it was the first time he was truly leaned on. Crazily, BTJ didn’t see double-digit targets in a single-game until after the Week 12 Bye. He then saw 10+ targets in six straight games, and topped 85 yards in 5-of-6 games & trailing only Chase in FPs over these 6 weeks:
Despite the amazing production and 2024 finish, there’s shockingly still SO MUCH room for BTJ to grow in 2025 and beyond. I think his ceiling actually might be the highest of any WR in this tier.
First, let’s look at BTJ himself. He suffered a rib injury in Week 8 which was supposed to sideline him for 4ish weeks. Thomas ultimately gutted it out, but his production suffered with 6.2, 3.2, and 13.6 games. If you remove those, BTJ averaged 18.9 FPPG. We mentioned the “Top-10 Rookie WR in FPPG All-Time” list… BTJ would’ve been even better than No.3 Malik Nabers!
Perhaps even more important is “The Liam Coen” effect. In Coen’s first year calling plays at the NFL level, the Bucs ranked 3rd in yards and 4th in points, including the 4th most rushing yards, 3rd most passing yards, and 2nd most passing TDs.
Notably, both Chris Godwin AND Mike Evans also set career-highs in Yards Per Route Run, posting their most efficient seasons ever under Coen. He brought a Rams-inspired scheme that created tons of space and “lay-up” opportunities for both of his WRs, especially Godwin in the slot.
Coen has already suggested he will greatly expand Thomas’ route tree, while saying “our pass game will run through him.”
““He’s so dynamic, being able to move him around, where you saw him at LSU, maybe not do some of those things, right? Where he was mostly outside, running more linear routes, vertical posts, some overs and then the stop… The ability for him to snap down, get in the slot, be able to run some of the choice routes, looky routes, and then, oh, by the way, you can throw him a screen and he can go do something with it. Our pass game will run through him, and super excited to get to work with him.”
Recently, Coen doubled-down on this stance, noting: “The ability for a big dude like him to be able to operate in the slot, run some of the choice and option routes, but also be able to go vertical and catch the ball down the field, he’s been a real pleasure to work with so far.”
These new, more “lay-up / horizontal” branches to Thomas’ route tree, as well as more move-around slot usage, should prove absolutely massive to his fantasy floor and ceiling. Especially because Thomas has already proven to be incredibly dangerous from inside.
Despite ranking 52nd among WRs with only 209 slot snaps (25%), Thomas led all WRs in slot TDs with 7 total. He ranked 3rd in Yards per Route Run from the slot with 3.23. He also racked up 546 Yards After Catch (YAC), which was WR4 on the year, too.
Now, Thomas is going to be in a slot “lay-up” role that helped the less-dynamic and explosive Chris Godwin finish as the WR2 in FPPG.
The only question mark(s)? One is Travis Hunter. The team mortgaged the entire future to select him, and must have a huge role in mind. Fine – but Hunter is also going to play plenty of defense. There should be no confusion who the main vein of this offense is, and if anything, Hunter keeps some attention off BTJ.
Two, and much more valid, is Trevor Lawrence – which is insane, given he was once considered the most fool-proof prospect since Peyton Manning! Lawrence has flat out blown so far as a QB, and I’m not a believer myself. He looks soft, timid, and inaccurate.
Yet, Baker Mayfield had never finished inside the Top-15 QBs in FPPG before Coen… and he just finished as the QB4. If Lawrence can have an even mediocre jump, Thomas has legitimate 2,000 Yard / 20 TD upside. BTJ’s the most explosive & dangerous weapon to ever play the infamous “Cooper Kupp” Slot Role.
The Wolf can’t believe Brian Thomas’ ADP is outside of Round 1!
11. Derrick Henry (BAL – RB4)
The 31-year old Henry is a complete marvel. Every year, we’ll question if the Fantasy Grim Reaper will finally get him, and Henry will continue stiff arming Father Time into the dirt forever it seems.
The Henry + Ravens math was incredibly easy: one of the run-heaviest teams adds the biggest steam roller in the league. Ultimately, Henry posted a career-best 328 Half FPs, finishing with 325 carries, 1921 yards, and 16 TDs – in addition to 19-193-2 TDs through the air.
There’s zero reason outside of “natural / age decline” to expect a drop off in 2025, and we already know Henry is not “natural.” Sure, Henry doesn’t catch passes – he doesn’t need to when he’s going to run for 1800 yards & 15 TDs, with a 2K / 20 TD ceiling, and is totally fine in Round 1 if you prefer an RB to the elite pass-catchers (i.e. 2 WR leagues).
Scott Barrett has made a strong case too that Lamar Jackson had a historically high red-zone TD rate: ““Lamar Jackson had 33 red zone touchdown passes on 67 red zone pass attempts. So his touchdown rate inside the red zone was 49%. We’ve never seen a quarterback in the fantasy points data era, over 35%. And this is just really like a stat that just always regresses to the mean. The league average rate is 22.9%.
Lamar’s average is 24.6%. And again, he was at nearly 50% last year, which is crazy. And I’ve never seen anyone else at 35% or above.”
Wisely, Barrett points out that if Lamar regresses & even a portion of this goes to Henry, the ultimate GL hammer, he could post ABSURD TD numbers – even threatening LT’s 31 TD season. That’s how Henry could somehow be an even bigger league-winner in 2025 and pay off this elevated price.
12. Ashton Jeanty (LV – RB5)
Ranking a rookie on the Raiders (who finished dead-last in rushing last year (1357 team yards)), ahead of guys like Jonathan Taylor and De’Von Achane may seem blasphemous. However, it speaks volumes about just how high I am on Jeanty.
Jeanty is a generational prospect. Sure, much of it came against “lesser competition.” Still, Jeanty just posted one of the most impressive seasons in college football history, turning 374 carries into 2,601 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns, while adding 23-138-1 as a receiver. His rushing total ranks second all-time in FBS history — trailing only Barry Sanders’ legendary 1988 season (2,628 yards).
Via Scott Barrett, the underlying analytics are even more impressive: Jeanty forced 163 missed tackles, which is 48 (or +42%) more than any other RB in PFF College history (since 2014). His 1,970 rushing yards after contact is 615 (or +45%) more than any other RB in PFF College history.
“But Wolf – he only caught 23 passes his senior year! How can he be a true three-down RB?!”
Because Jeanty is sneaky elite as a pass-catcher – Boise just didn’t need to throw to him as a senior because Jeanty was too busy tearing up the field as a runner. In fact, Jeanty was a first-team all-star WR in high school before converting to RB! Just look at his junior year: he led all FBS RBs in receiving yards (578) with a phenomenal 43 rec, 578 yard, 5 TD season. His 3.19 YPRR was insane, 3-578-5), ranking behind only 2015 Christian McCaffrey in PFF College history, on a top-5 list that also includes Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara.
Yes, Jeanty can get it done as a true three down RB. The Raiders didn’t invest Top-6 Draft Capital to rotate a talent like this with Raheem Mostert or Sincere McCormick.
Sure, the Raiders weren’t the juiciest landing spot – but it isn’t awful, either. The Raiders hover in the middle-of-the-pack in PFF’s Line Grades @ 18th overall. More promising, new OC Chip Kelly LOVES to pound the rock. His four NFL offenses ranked:
- 4th, 7th, 11th, and 5th in rush attempts
- 1st, 9th, 14th, and 4th in rushing yards
- 2nd, 5th, 10th, and 13th in rushing TDs
- 4th, 3rd, 13th, and 27th in total points
- 2nd, 5th, 12th, and 31st in yards
LeSean McCoy put up a career-best 366 touch (52 rec), 2146 yard, 11 TD season in 2013 (RB3, 20.7 FPPG). He was fed another 340 touches in 2014 but struggled with efficiency (1474 YFS, 5 TDs). DeMarco Murray missed time but was the RB15 under Kelly, and Carlos Hyde even finished as the RB12 in FPPG under Chip!
Yes, I’m wary of Pete Carroll’s “I’m not relying on one guy, you know” quote. Despite having beasts like Marshawn Lynch, Carroll has never had an RB hit 70% of the snaps. In the same article, Carroll mentions, “Ashton looks every bit what we had hoped he would look like…He caught the ball really well.” Mostert added “Especially out in the pass game, too. We’ve been out here, just today, he caught a couple balls and, you know, you look at it, and you’re like, man, he’s gonna be special.”
Indeed he is. Don’t miss out on Jeanty because he’s “unproven.” Lean into a generational talent that’s about to be fed 350+ touches and enjoy the stats that pile up.
Just Missed: Puka Nacua📉 (LAR – WR7) -4 ECR!
I love all my Top-12, but if there’s one I’m fading, it’s Nacua – which pains me after he hand-delivered multiple titles in 2023. He’s the most expensive of this incredible WR1 tier, yet is my lowest-ranked.
On the positive front, Puka has been a revelation when available through two years. As a fifth-round rookie, he set the record for receptions (105), yards (1486), catches (15) & targets (20) in a game, and a single-game playoff record (182 yards).
As a sophomore, Nacua had an absurd 43.6% target rate (WR1) & averaged an absolutely-insane 4.07 Yards Per Route Run (WR1). He was the picture-perfect combination of insane production and volume, and ultimately trailed only Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin in FPPG (18.8).
He also has been incredibly productive despite scoring minimal TDs. Per Hayden Winks:
Even just a slight regression to league-average TD rate would be massive for Puka. With all this in mind, if you prefer Nacua over any of ASB, Nico, or Nabers, I totally understand.
However, I am treading cautiously for two reasons:
A) Davante Adams – since 2018, Adams has finished 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 5th in target share, finishing with 30%+ in 5-of-7 seasons. While I do think Puka remains the No.1 here, Adams is an elite target-earner, and is still playing at a very high level. This is a different beast to contend with than a washed Cooper Kupp. Adams is also a TD machine, which hurts Nacua’s chances positive TD Regression.
B) Injuries – as mentioned, Nacua missed 6 games last year due to injury. While he didn’t miss any time as a rookie, Nacua did suffer a shoulder sprain and rib injury that he gutted through. In college, Nacua missed 8 total games as well with a variety of ailments. Per “Draft Sharks”:
C) Matthew Stafford’s Back Injury: While Stafford has been trending the right way recently, fantasy owners have to be at least mildly concerned with his ongoing back issues this offseason. Sure, Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the worst back-up, but Stafford is crucial to making Puka tick. They have undeniable chemistry and timing, and Stafford often “throws Puka open.” Thus, Puka has double the injury risk – both for himself, and his QB.
Ultimately, the Mcvay “lay up” role is so valuable,a healthy Matthew Stafford is an absolute kingmaker at WR, and Nacua is so efficient, that he should still easily finish as a Round 1 Worthy WR. Nonetheless, these slight target + injury concerns do give me pause when comparing Puka with other Round 1-worthy WRs.
Noticeably Absent = Christian McCaffrey
Call it a bad player-coach fit: all Christian McCaffrey does is bone me.
We discussed “Power Law Players” already – and no one defines that more than Christian McCaffrey.
Over the last six seasons, McCaffrey has either: A) missed half or more of the games, or B) finished as THE RB1. Two of those seasons rank in the Top-20 ALL TIME. There’s no middle-ground – CMC wins you your league, or he ruins your season.
Personally, I NEVER get him right. I have only owned CMC when he gets hurt – he has missed 10+ games in 3 of the last five seasons, and I have had him in two of those.
McCaffrey also didn’t look like himself in the 3 games he played last season, and you have to wonder if he’s lost a step after so many injuries.
Still, reports suggest CMC looks “incredible…so explosive, so healthy.” After losing Deebo Samuel and missing Brandin Aiyuk to begin 2025, the 49ers need CMC to handle as much work as possible, and OC Klay Kubiak has said “we will get him the ball as much as we can.” In Training Camp clips, CMC looks incredible, zipping all over the field and with chiseled physique. I am extremely terrified of not drafting him enough.
In Best Ball, I am sprinkling in CMC when he falls towards the end of Round 1 – it would be unwise to draft 500+ teams and not take any shares of a player who defines seasons when he plays. But I am not touching CMC at his fringe Round 1 price in redraft – so he will likely go for 420 touches, 2300 YFS, and 25 TDs.
The decision is ultimately yours on CMC – if you feel in your gut he’s going to put together 13+ games, you just got the No.1 player in fantasy in Round 2. Fading him is a huge risk, but I am mostly OUT.
Thank you for reading – I hope this breakdown of my Top-12 Picks for your First Round of 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts helps you dominate. You can find me @RotoStreetWolf & my 2025 Fantasy Big Board here for all your drafts!
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