Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley instantly go off the board. CeeDee Lamb? Justin Jefferson? Bijan? How about giving ol’ Jahmyr Gibbs a crack?
The top half of the draft is loaded down with nearly bust-proof and relatively safe options. The only question you really have to ask yourself at the start of drafts is, How do you want to build your team around the first pick?
Hero RB and load up on top-end WR talent while the rest of the league fights and claws for those workhorses and bellcows. Or do you try to leverage the apparent WR dead zone that’s been forming in drafts and take a hero WR build?
There are still 18 selections between your first and second-round pick so don’t try and hitch your wagon to a strategy and wind up trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Just relax, try to find positional advantages and weigh that vs. draft need and let the draft come to you.
Draft settings: 0.5 PPR, 12-team, 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense
THE EARLY ROUNDS: POSITIONAL ADVANTAGES AND HOPE YOU DON’T GET SNIPED
- CeeDee Lamb
- Josh Allen
- Jonathan Taylor
- Chuba Hubbard
- Sam LaPorta
While Chase represents the highest floor-to-upside combination in fantasy, is he truly the safest pick in the first round?
When paired with Dak Prescott, Lamb was a WR2 or better in nearly 90% of his games and was a WR1 in 55% of those games.
Comparing that to Chase’s 2024, Lamb was a WR2 or better in a higher percentage of games (77% for Chase). However, Chase was a WR1 in nearly 60% of his games last season.
While skewed slightly by the drastic drop-off in backup quality and surrounding pass-catcher competition, comparing Lamb’s 2024 without Dak and Chase’s 2023 without Burrow does reveal that Lamb MIGHT be the safer play.
A run on running backs caused my primary target, Ashton Jeanty, to be picked before I could grab him. This left me with a decision: should I pursue a true positional advantage at quarterback or select Jonathan Taylor to ensure I have a reliable workhorse running back to pair with Lamb?
Ultimately, I chased the positional advantage and ridiculously high floor of Allen and decided to either get PPR upside like Chase Brown or Breece Hall. Fortunately, Taylor fell to the 3.03 as three wide receivers went off the board. Then the choice was easy. Although there was a significant decline in backup quality and competition among pass-catchers, comparing CeeDee Lamb’s 2024 season without Dak Prescott to Ja’Marr Chase’s 2023 season without Joe Burrow suggests that Lamb might be the safer option.
In the end, I opted for the positional advantage and the high-floor potential of Josh Allen while keeping an eye on options for PPR upside, like Chase Brown or Breece Hall. Fortunately, Taylor fell to me at 3.03 as three wide receivers were selected, making my choice much easier.
After that, the decision had to be made to let the board play out and choose the likely best player available. As the WRs in what I deem the WR dead zone (rounds three and four) went off the board, Hubbard fell to me at the 4.10. With Jonathan Brooks not a factor and Rico Dowdle as a serviceable but non-threatening backup, Hubbard was an easy addition.
After an underwhelming start to the season, LaPorta finished strong and was pacing for a ridiculous 1,139 yards and 7 TD pace the last five weeks. Seeing a healthy 7.8 targets per game down the stretch could suggest a prominent role as a pass-catcher in this offense, even with the departure of Ben Johnson.
ROUNDS 6-9: HIGH-VOLUME WRs + LATE-SEASON LEAGUE WINNERS?
- Jerry Jeudy
- Travis Hunter
- Kaleb Johnson
- Ricky Pearsall
If you happen to have read the 1.01 and 1.02 how-to articles, then you’ll likely find a repeating theme.
Studying the draft board and, let’s face it, a little luck led to me being able to chase good-to-high-volume WRs with some potentially unsettling variance to pair with a hero WR like Lamb.
Last season, Jeudy FINALLY showcased that obvious talent that he was drafted in the first round for.
Nothing was outstanding or outlandish about his week 7 to week 15 stretch that suggested this was a fluke.
Now this doesn’t mean we should flock to fantasy receipts and grab our virtual megaphones and yell, “Duck says Jeudy’s going for 1700+!” No, no. The production is unsustainable.
I’m saying nothing is stopping Jeudy from commanding 8-9 targets per game and dominating after the catch again. The Browns aren’t likely going to be playing with a lead often, and that sets up some sexy game scripts for Jeudy to put up numbers again. He’s a terrific mid-round WR stab that could crush ADP.
The presence of Lamb on this roster allows for more mid-to-late round risk-taking. Hunter represents the type of player that drips with double-digit, league-winning upside in what is likely a drastically improved offense in Jacksonville.
This season marks the first time in his NFL career that Trevor Lawrence might have a competent offensive play caller and exciting weapons around him. Urban Meyer was a joke, and Doug Pederson’s play-calling was on par with Carrot Top’s prop comedy.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a bona fide stud and half a strong season away from being a proven elite WR. Defenses will be forced to worry about Thomas, freeing up Hunter to physically take advantage of weaker secondary options.
Teams will be forced to sit back in coverage, allowing the short passing game and ground game to merge together in a fantasy marriage that could win leagues if it clicks. Travis Etienne and his pass-catching pedigree, or explosive rookie Bhayshul Tuten, whoever benefits most from advantageous screens and checkdowns, is set to see open running lanes and chunk plays as a result.
Liam Coen is a master of getting the most out of his running backs and making them viable weapons, dating back to his time as the offensive coordinator of Kentucky.
Meanwhile, the Steelers agreed to let Najee Harris join the Chargers and added bowling ball Kaleb Johnson to fill his shoes.
While Johnson’s questionable ability to accelerate raises questions about how effective a runner he will be early, he’s made to handle the workload Harris left behind.
Since joining the league, Harris’ 1,097 rush attempts and 4,312 yards both rank fifth in the NFL. Despite being an inefficient runner, he is still one of 14 NFL players in history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in each of his first four seasons.
At this point, we know what Jaylen Warren is, and he represents little threat to the 250+ rush attempts likely available for Johnson.
Pearsall represents a name that should, and likely will, soar up draft boards as we get closer to the NFL season. With the departure of Deebo Samuel and question marks surrounding Brandon Aiyuk’s return from injury and effectiveness upon his return, Pearsall is in line to inherit a healthy dose of targets early.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that Jajuan Jennings has requested either an extension or a trade?
An athletic, polished first-round wide receiver with crisp route-running and reliable hands, he’s a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s high-octane offense. His 14 receptions, 210 yards, and 2 touchdowns to end the season reflect his potential in the offense.
LAST ROUNDS: HANDCUFFS, HIGH T, AND A HIGH-UPSIDE DART THROW
- Zach Charbonnet
- Cam Skattebo
- Jerome Ford
- Isaac Guerendo
- Dylan Sampson
- Quentin Johnston
Concerns around Kenneth Walker’s injury history, Quinshon Judkins’ legal issues, the risk of Christian McCaffrey’s unpredictability, and whether Skattebo can surpass Tyrone Tracy as the lead back hover over draft boards like a specter.
Last season, when given a healthy workload, Ford came through for fantasy.
Ford received at least 10 carries in five games last year. In those five games, he averaged nearly 13 fantasy points per game and did most of his damage through the air. With the addition of Sampson, Ford likely won’t see heavy usage in Judkins’ stead, but Kevin Stefanski has shown he loves to throw to Ford, who offers high-end flex appeal.
The same could also be said for Sampson, who has a chance to carve out a role early with Judkins likely being suspended to start the year. Both players represent interesting stash appeal at the tail end of drafts.
Meanwhile, over the last two seasons, Walker has missed eight games. In those eight games, Charbonnet has averaged over 16 FPPG while pacing for 1,600 YFS and 15 TDs. Extrapolate that over a full fantasy season and Charbonnet would finish as the RB5, ahead of Josh Jacobs last season.
While he lacks the explosive juice that Walker has when healthy, he has been the more efficient runner, eclipsing Walker in YPC and success rate each season. He’s a must-target late in drafts, whether you drafted K9 or not.
