Picture it: draft day, 2025. Your draft just started, and the first pick just went off the board. Which strategy do you prefer? Hero RB and load up with WRs? High T RB heavy attack and leverage value and upside at the WR position? Or is a WR-heavy approach early in play?
The answer is yes to all. With the first round, fantasy managers’ primary concerns should be avoiding the first-round bust and making sure that the roster has more than one way to win.
In the HTD from the 1.01 article, the “clear and obvious” choice appeared to be Ja’Marr Chase.
The strategy doesn’t change much with the 1.02. The trick is to chase the safest floor and maybe look for a little more ceiling so that you can leverage your earlier second-round pick and give yourself a leg up on the first draft slot!
Draft settings: 0.5 PPR, 12-team, 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense
THE FIRST 5 ROUNDS – OUTFOX THE 1.01 AND BUILD A WINNING CORE
- Bijan Robinson
- Josh Jacobs
- Jaxon-Smith Njigba
- Rashee Rice
- DK Metcalf
Yes, I remember last year. Yes, I remember what Saquon Barkley did with the Eagles. It’s that line of thinking that can lead so many fantasy managers astray.
The flow of the mock draft did not sway my choice at 1.02. Barkley went 1.01, where I believe Chase should be the choice. I would draft Bijan over Barkley in 2025, and history suggests I might be correct.
I don’t even have to sing the praises of Bijan. His resume and his play last season do that for me. He’s off to a historic start to his career, notching milestones only Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson have accomplished.
In 2024, Barkley rushed the ball a total of 436 times and saw 58 total targets. That workload is enough to make even Superman need an ice bath.
Since 2000, there have been 22 RBs to tote the rock at least 375 times in a season. The following season, only 4 RBs saw an increase in YPC efficiency the following year:
- Michael Turner (2008-2009): +0.5 YPC
- Arian Foster (2012-2013): +0.4
- Rashard Mendenhall (2010-2011): +0.2
- Derrick Henry (2019-2020): +0.1
The only RB of the 22 sampled to score more 0.5 PPR points than the previous year was Adrian Peterson in 2009.
No RB sampled saw more than 10 more attempts the following season, and only Henry, after the 2019 season, rushed for more years.
There’s an overwhelming trend of RBs getting hurt and/or experiencing a massive dropoff in YPC the following seasons. RBs sampled that had at least 100 carries the following season averaged over 860 fewer yards the following season and scored an average of nearly 153 fewer 0.5 PPR points.
In other words, history doesn’t favor drafting Barkley this high. Robinson is the much safer pick that has yet to hit his fantasy ceiling.
Throw in Barkley’s checkered injury history, and there are more red flags than I am willing to risk. Bijan has yet to approach his fantasy ceiling and is likely due for at least twice as many targets and receptions as Barkley. I’ll chase the safer pick and not get lost in the grandeur and wonder of last year’s results.
Looking at the remaining four picks, it was more about staying water and figuring out how to best complement Bijan. Doing so without burning myself trying to project how the remaining 21 picks between my next selections would make my decision-making easy.
You couldn’t pay me to draft Tyreek Hill at the 2.11, and the only WR (Ladd McConkey) I’d consider taking over another workhorse RB went at 2.10. So Jacobs falling in my lap at 2.11 was an easy choice.
That steered my decision-making to eliminate drafting a QB early and made the decisions come down to loading up on WR or drafting a tight end early and having another decisive positional advantage.
The decision to draft JSN was an easy one. Even with doubts surrounding Sam Darnold and the Seahawks likely embracing a run-heavy scheme under Klint Kubiak, JSN represented too much potential volume and fantasy upside to pass on.
After leveling up the last half of the year, JSN represented untapped upside while maintaining a steady target floor. The biggest risk with him is how many touchdowns he catches.
Meanwhile, the prospects of new Seahawk Cooper Kupp appear to be on life support after declining efficiency metrics and a large number of missed games (18) since his triple-crown season.
Since 2021, when Kupp recorded a staggering 3.12 yards per route run (Y/RR), he’s logged:
- 2.40 Y/RR with 5.6 YAC/rec.
- 1.77 Y/RR with 5.3 YAC/rec.
- 1.88 Y/RR with 3.8 YAC/rec.
JSN should receive all the work he can handle, even in a likely lower-volume pass attack.
As for Rice, in 2024, he was stealing Travis Kelce’s thunder. Before his season-ending knee injury, Rice was on a 225 fantasy point pace. If we omit the early week 4 injury, where he only played four offensive snaps, Rice was pacing for:
That would have been the WR2 in fantasy, blowing Justin Jefferson out of the water.
Now, expectations have to be tempered. Between legal issues, the emergence of Xavier Worthy, and Kelce still being on the team, it’s fair to be concerned about the risk vs. reward question with Rice.
However, last season, before going down to injury, Kelce was only seeing 5.3 targets per game, a number that jumped to 9.3 after Rice went down. It’s reasonably clear that Patrick Mahomes knows Kelce isn’t the player he once was and would prefer getting the ball to his more effective playmakers.
Due to the complexity of the charges Rice is facing from his 2024 hit-and-run in Dallas, it’s speculated that Rice’s case won’t be heard until 2026. In April, defense attorney Drew Davenport estimated a “better than even chance” that Rice avoids suspension in 2025.
Now that it’s the middle of July and the latest word on his legal standing is that a trial is scheduled for January 20, 2026, it’s likely Rice won’t face repercussions until 2026.
Still, I had no intentions of drafting a player with that high of draft capital and not looking to protect myself from blowback as the draft went on.
Enter Metcalf. Rodgers has historically preferred tacticians who can be in the right place at the right time for his lead wide receivers. The lack of any viable competition for targets on the roster is too enticing to pass up, with George Pickens wowing Dak Prescott in Dallas.
Rodgers ranked second in pass attempts in 2024, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
In 2024, despite being terrible, Rodgers still supported a WR1 (Garrett Wilson, WR11) and a high-end WR2 (Davante Adams, WR14).
Not to mention, Adams was elite once he joined Rodgers and the Jets after week 6.
Rodgers still has enough left in his arm to sustain good wide receiver production. There’s little reason to believe Rodgers still won’t make Metcalf a good fantasy WR, and he’s a potential steal in the fifth round.
Mid-Round strategy (6-10): LEVERAGE VALUE AND EXPLOIT UPSIDE
- TreVeyon Henderson
- Tony Pollard
- David Njoku
- Justin Herbert
- Keon Coleman
There was once a running back who was such a PPR maestro that he failed to ever rush for 1,000 yards; in fact, he barely eclipsed 900 yards twice. He still finished as the RB6 or better three times in four seasons and averaged 80.8 receptions across that span.
Insert the hype around Henderson’s prospects. An electrifying player in space who thrives as a pass catcher and routinely displayed buttery-soft hands in college. Nobody is afraid of Rhamondre Stevenson in this backfield. Even if he hogs goal-line work, Henderson should be a favorite target for Drake Maye.
The lack of TD equity overall and questions surrounding the outlook of the offense raise fair questions. Still, from 2016 to 2021, while serving as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, RBs were targeted an average of 135.7 times per season.
That trend dipped slightly as the HC of the Raiders, but his backfields still saw 105 RB targets in 2023. McDaniels has a long history of featuring his RBs as extensions of the passing game, and a versatile weapon like Henderson drips league-winning upside.
Meanwhile, having high-floor horses like Pollard and high-upside options like Njoku at the TE position and Coleman as a bench player offers managers explosive week-winning upside while maintaining a competitive floor.
Justin Herbert is my favorite value at cost at the QB position.
After sticking to his guns early in the season, Jim Harbaugh and his right-hand man Greg Roman opened the pass game up more and put Herbert’s missile on display.
RotoViz noted that, in natural situations and when the Chargers found themselves trailing by more than a touchdown, the offense ranked in the top 10 in pass rate.
After week four, the Chargers were forced to accept that the run game needed to be a complement to Herbert’s aerial excellence.
While Herbert still threw a lower-than-average number of touchdowns, that number could easily have flipped the other way.
It was clear after an explosive first couple of weeks that JK Dobbins was not close to the same player he once was. Yet he still managed to secure nine rushing TDs while the exoskeleton of Gus Edwards tacked on an additional four.
Before a disastrous 2022 season, Herbert averaged a sexy 5.45% TD rate, 1 whole percentage point higher than the 4.5% league average.
In three of his four seasons under Roman, Lamar Jackson posted a TD rate of at least 5.2%, registering a 9.0% rate in 2019 and a 6.9% rate in 2020.
The Chargers invested heavily in their offense this offseason by adding Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton and drafting man-coverage menace Tre Harris to go alongside emerging superstar McConkey.
Last season, Herbert had the fifth-highest average depth of throw (8.7), reminding everyone he is one of the best passers the league has to offer.
Herbert also flashed more of his sneaky Konami upside with his legs under Roman.
Following those moves, it’s easy to see the Chargers are looking to deploy one of the most efficient and creative offenses in the league.
END OF DRAFT STRATEGY: SHOOT FOR UPSIDE VS. SECURING HIGH-END INVESTMENTS
- Keon Coleman
- Emeka Egbuka
- Jordan Mason
- Jaydon Blue
- Tyler Allgeier
- Isaiah Likely
Smart roster construction dictates that high-end investments like Bijan Robinson should be protected by quality backups like Tyler Allgeier. With so few backups that can provide any standalone value, Allgeier is one of the smartest draft choices in 2025.
Cuffing the likes of Mason, who is tied to a juicy situation like the ones in Minnesota, makes drafting him late in drafts absolute theft.
Egbuka has a chance to establish a rapport with Baker Mayfield as Chris Godwin continues recovering from his crushing knee injury. A smart, crafty, athletic wide receiver with reliable hands, Egbuka is a smart bench stash early.
Coleman’s inconsistent rookie season and jaw-dropping playmaking ability make him a high-upside dart throw that could win weeks in a pinch.
Jaydon Blue is in a unique position to be the biggest steal in fantasy. With uninspiring veterans like Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders taking up space in front of him, there’s no reason a lightning bolt like Blue can’t thunder his way up the depth chart by mid-season.
He boasts tremendous pass-catching prowess, nabbing 42 receptions for 368 yards and six scores in his last season at Texas. Oh, and his 4.38 speed makes ripping off 30-to-40-yard runs light work in space.
In 2024 with Texas, he lined up in the slot on roughly 16% of routes and ran legitimate receiving routes, making him a De’Von Achane-esque threat. At 5’9″ and just shy of 200 pounds, why can he not be seen as a primary running back if James Cook (5’11” 190 pounds) can do it?
Not drafting Blue if he’s there at the end of drafts is just bad fantasy strategy.
The same can be said for Isaiah Likely.
Is Mark Andrews truly washed as a tight end after appearing rather soapy for stretches in 2024? It’s not asinine to think Likely could supplant Andrews or at least usurp him as a primary pass-catching option in this attack. Given Todd Monken’s history as an explosive passing game coordinator, there’s plenty of upside to squeeze from Likely at the end of drafts when other managers are picking defenses and kickers.
Zig while your league zags and leverage upside.
